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question about models


Tom

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with this upcoming storm, it hasn't even happened yet, but noticed good agreement outside 3 days then some divergence.  Is it possible the long range models are good at 3+ days and short range are good at under 36 hour but the in between is where programmers should focus?  For my area SNJ the shore range models are almost saying what the long range were saying a couple days ago before the storm started to waver

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with this upcoming storm, it hasn't even happened yet, but noticed good agreement outside 3 days then some divergence.  Is it possible the long range models are good at 3+ days and short range are good at under 36 hour but the in between is where programmers should focus?  For my area SNJ the shore range models are almost saying what the long range were saying a couple days ago before the storm started to waver

 

The divergence is more a function of you paying closer attention to fine details and possibly these details having a more relevant sensible impact than before. There is plenty of divergence outside 3 days.

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