Allisong Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 The GFS may have done too many coke balloons tonight. I think it thought it saw this guy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ltrain Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Eye balling the color contours of the GGEM snowfall map posted in the storm thread it looks like BWI is between 24-26". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 I wonder if a Met could comment whether or not the GFS run is even synoptically possible? Can we even get over 4 inches of qpf in a single winter storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 What on earth did they send up in the weather balloons today....cocaine? LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
terpsnation Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 WPC ignoring the NAM: http://www.wpc.ncep....php?disc=pmdhmd SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST/MID ATLANTIC COAST~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~PREFERENCE: NON-NAM COMPROMISECONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGETHE 00Z NAM IS A NORTHWARD OUTLIER ALOFT SATURDAY MORNING BEFOREBECOMING A SLOW OUTLIER THEREAFTER -- THE NAM HAS A BIAS OFOCCASIONALLY BEING TOO SLOW. A COMPROMISE OF THE 00Z GFS/12ZECMWF/12Z CANADIAN/12Z UKMET IS PREFERRED WITH ABOVE AVERAGECONFIDENCE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 OPM made a good call based on guidance but thats a really hard call to make when upwards of 30" is predicted. If predicted timing is off, it could be disastrous. I'd say they would be better off closing at least an hour earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 WPC ignoring the NAM: I wonder what they'll say about the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD-Dave Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 All you beer drinkers in here. Whiskey is the drink of choice in the cold snowy tundra! Lagavulin 16 Year Macallan 12 Year Just got home and found this waiting for me: Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kat Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 How do you make a forecast in NYC and Boston after that nam run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC_WX Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 A nice read on the Washington-Jefferson Snowstorm: http://www.glenallenweather.com/alink/01articles/Washington-Jefferson%20Snow.pdf (David Ludlum's account). Good luck to all. Fascinating. Hope you get in on the northern spoils here Don. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pityflakes Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 I feel like it could be sunny and 50 tomorrow and it wouldn't matter because we've already won. Model run and model run have been euphoric for a week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 For the first time I'll say I hope we don't get something bigger any time soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ImThat1Guy Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Just saved hours 0-60 of that GFS run to my computer. Thats going in the... special folder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeSuck Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Biblical. To even be alive for a storm like the gfs and ggem are showing is one thing, to be bullseye region wide is another Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shane M. Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 I wonder if a Met could comment whether or not the GFS run is even synoptically possible? Can we even get over 4 inches of qpf in a single winter storm? I think if anything, you should take away that there will be very heavy banding as the upper level low moves towards the coast. Where the heavy banding sets up remains in question. Keep in mind also that the GFS is not a small scale model so the coverage of the heavy banding is likely overdone. Tomorrow, the smaller scale, short range models will be useful in determining where it all sets up. My guess would be across northern VA into Montgomery/Frederick/Howard counties and obviously further to the west across the higher elevations Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ltrain Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 How do you make a forecast in NYC and Boston after that nam run? You toss the NAM. No but you wait and see what the other models show. NAM could be good for tweaking a forecast 12 to 24 hrs out but not this far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Fascinating. Hope you get in on the northern spoils here Don. It would be nice, but the Mid-Atlantic has missed out in recent years. Even if NYC gets very little, this will be an amazing meteorological event. I'm happy to see Richmond, Washington, Baltimore, etc., finally getting a chance to cash in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 I think if anything, you should take away that there will be very heavy banding as the upper level low moves towards the coast. Where the heavy banding sets up remains in question. Keep in mind also that the GFS is not a small scale model so the coverage of the heavy banding is likely overdone. Tomorrow, the smaller scale, short range models will be useful in determining where it all sets up. My guess would be across northern VA into Montgomery/Frederick/Howard counties and obviously further to the west across the higher elevations Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Man, Tony Pann's call of 12-16 for BWI might be in trouble. At 11 Tom T. already said 12-24" and he said with the new guidance coming in he will probably have to up it in the morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 It would be nice, but the Mid-Atlantic has missed out in recent years. Even if NYC gets very little, this will be an amazing meteorological event. I'm happy to see Richmond, Washington, Baltimore, etc., finally getting a chance to cash in. Thanks, Don. It is indeed an amazing event...almost scary, to be honest, if it ends up even close to what some of the crazier totals that some of the model runs have been indicating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ohleary Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 I think if anything, you should take away that there will be very heavy banding as the upper level low moves towards the coast. Where the heavy banding sets up remains in question. Keep in mind also that the GFS is not a small scale model so the coverage of the heavy banding is likely overdone. Tomorrow, the smaller scale, short range models will be useful in determining where it all sets up. My guess would be across northern VA into Montgomery/Frederick/Howard counties and obviously further to the west across the higher elevations You didn't answer the question Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ltrain Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 At 11 Tom T. already said 12-24" and he said with the new guidance coming in he will probably have to up it in the morning.Cool, Tom has stuck with that the whole time. I don't know if Tony called this on air but this afternoon on social media he was going 12-16" for Baltimore.Edit: I think he has been riding the RPM hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 So earlier this evening I happened to glance up and see the nearly-full moon. This is kind of what it looked like: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Found this one Twitter, good stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 it's good to see Chief Brody from Centreville is back.a few of us were worried about him earlier. He has a great, nasty sense of humor.I can't believe they changed the caps game from 7 to 5. The net result will be the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 You didn't answer the question Ha. I took his answer as a no. Was I wrong? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 it's good to see Chief Brody from Centreville is back.a few of us were worried about him earlier. He has a great, nasty sense of humor.I can't believe they changed the caps game from 7 to 5. The net result will be the same. Pun intended?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ohleary Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 I wonder if a Met could comment whether or not the GFS run is even synoptically possible? Can we even get over 4 inches of qpf in a single winter storm? Sure. It's probably a 500 year event but with climate change, a perky el nino, a full moon and Donald Trump anything is possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Pun intended?? Thank you!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
motsco Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 This is scary. Very very serious situation!really. ? how's this not banter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.