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January and #HECS2016 Banter Thread


WxUSAF

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Someone needs to write up a research piece that analyzes the relationship between the warmer GOA water, the abnormal warm waters of the GoMex and W. Atlantic, the very strong El Nino, the Nino's effect on the subtropical jet and how those factors influence atmospheric physics and the development of one of these exceptional storms.

 

I'm sure someone here could phrase the above a hell of a lot better than I can, but I think most here get my drift.

 

I really enjoy reading those types of pdf's. Sort of like a whitepaper on meteorology.

 

Thanks in advance.

 

Well said Jeb.  Couldn't agree more re the impact of the warm waters.  Given the moisture plume started in the Eastern Pacific and tapped into 3 bodies of unusually warm bodies, it's only reasonable to assume the impact was significant.  But how? and is there a way to quantify it? 

 

I asked about this a couple times in the days leading up to the start and during the radio chat last week.  Certainly not claiming fame for the idea, just curious about the about the influence of the SSTs.  Didn't get much response in the forums and the pro mets on radio indicated the models take the SSTs into account.  That's great, but it would be good to know more about how and in weenie terms if that's possible.  I enjoy the occasional discussions about how the math in the models works, but it often gets into terminology that is beyond me.  However, some more details as to how the SSTs influenced this grand event on a relative scale would be very interesting reading.

 

Now time to get out and blow, shovel, and/or plow our 500' driveway and dig out....

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Post-storm depression has set in. You spend 6 days straight 4 times a day checking models, day dreaming about 4 inches of QPF. Lack of sleep because you're up until 1-2am for EURO then wake up to check the 6z runs...And then, it's over....This is a real disorder that psychologists have not yet diagnosed. 

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Post-storm depression has set in. You spend 6 days straight 4 times a day checking models, day dreaming about 4 inches of QPF. Lack of sleep because you're up until 1-2am for EURO then wake up to check the 6z runs...And then, it's over....This is a real disorder that psychologists have not yet diagnosed.

Nah, maybe if this was mid-late Feb and possibly our last chance. I slept for 10 hours last night. Feel great and ready to track again. Things are looking good as we move through the first week of Feb. GEFS and EPS already showing some big storms on the members. Lol

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Post-storm depression has set in. You spend 6 days straight 4 times a day checking models, day dreaming about 4 inches of QPF. Lack of sleep because you're up until 1-2am for EURO then wake up to check the 6z runs...And then, it's over....This is a real disorder that psychologists have not yet diagnosed. 

Did you end up traveling? We all told you Philly would beat DC :) 

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Nah, maybe if this was mid-late Feb and possibly our last chance. I slept for 10 hours last night. Feel great and ready to track again. Things are looking good as we move through the first week of Feb. GEFS and EPS already showing some big storms on the members. Lol

 

But how can we ever track a 4-8 event here again? 4 inches... thats like 1/6 of my current snowpack.

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But how can we ever track a 4-8 event here again? 4 inches... thats like 1/6 of my current snowpack.

It pretty easy. Don't get invested until inside of 72. Just keep an eye on it and sleep normally beyond that. Haha

Trust me, everyone will jump in again even for 2-4". We are all infected.

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Posting my question on the below here instead of in the obs thread...

Wondering when the earliest post about this storm took place. There was a d10 threat being thrown around a lot around Jan. 12... was there anything earlier?

Yeah it's in one of the Jan tracking threads. I think it was actually DT who first mentioned it.

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Post-storm depression has set in. You spend 6 days straight 4 times a day checking models, day dreaming about 4 inches of QPF. Lack of sleep because you're up until 1-2am for EURO then wake up to check the 6z runs...And then, it's over....This is a real disorder that psychologists have not yet diagnosed. 

Dude its championship Sunday. We got a ton of snow outside, its sunny, cold, and football! Plus the pattern looks pdg going forward.

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So can we do a post storm/model mortem discussion/thread? I believe GFS did a phenomenal job with this storm, NAM also did well even if some were way too far north. A victory for the American Models for sure.

gfs did a terrible job up here. Nam amd SREF did great.

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Sh*tty storm here. Definitely doesn't come close to any of the three big ones of 09/10. Didn't get a blizzard either.

 

Not even sure how much I got from this. APG south of me says 29", which is completely absurd, and Belcamp to the west is at 24", which might be a bit too high as well. I barely have 2ft drifts.

 

Rant done.

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Sh*tty storm here. Definitely doesn't come close to any of the three big ones of 09/10. Didn't get a blizzard either.

 

Not even sure how much I got from this. APG south of me says 29", which is completely absurd, and Belcamp to the west is at 24", which might be a bit too high as well. I barely have 2ft drifts.

 

Rant done.

I think you dry slotted yesterday too? I basically picked up only another 1.5" after 10 am.  Probably not even a top 10 storm for me, but I am fine with 15". It is at least manageable, and more than I have seen in a storm since Feb 2010.

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Sh*tty storm here. Definitely doesn't come close to any of the three big ones of 09/10. Didn't get a blizzard either.

 

Not even sure how much I got from this. APG south of me says 29", which is completely absurd, and Belcamp to the west is at 24", which might be a bit too high as well. I barely have 2ft drifts.

 

Rant done.

 

 

Next miller b screwage storm for DC you will get 12" and DCA will get flurries. Its how these things work. 

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Dude its championship Sunday. We got a ton of snow outside, its sunny, cold, and football! Plus the pattern looks pdg going forward.

Yeah. Definitely. I'm feeling real good going forward. I don't know about all snow events but I'm pretty convinced there will be a couple more major coastals in the upcoming 6 weeks. I normally would have more after storm let down but we have so much winter left.

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Sh*tty storm here. Definitely doesn't come close to any of the three big ones of 09/10. Didn't get a blizzard either.

Not even sure how much I got from this. APG south of me says 29", which is completely absurd, and Belcamp to the west is at 24", which might be a bit too high as well. I barely have 2ft drifts.

Rant done.

Same here. I got about 19" because of that damn dry slot. It was snowing while the radar showed nothing but it did not accumulate. Meanwhile BWI which is less then 10 miles to my NW got 29". I had 13.5" at 5am and then it shut off and I didn't get accumulating snow again until 1 or 2pm. So while it was a historic storm for some it doesn't beat Feb 5-6, 2010 for me. I had 28" during that storm.

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