Bob Chill Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 I've never discussed the Srefs. I don't even have the link bookmarked and the only time I see them is when they're posted here. And I'm definitely not apologizing for not caring about a state outside of our subforum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neff Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Well, not to have it get out of hand......but you sorta did. Sorry you take model output discussion so personally that you feel the need to flame anyone that wants an honest, legitimate discussion about a model that shows a change that may not benefit you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Bob said he wasn't concerned unless there was a twist. There seemed to be a twist, and I was hoping for some decent discussion about it. Instead, I was told to GTFO, even though I have legitimate reason for wanting to discuss the potential cause of and potential implications of the change in guidance. Sure, the SREF may be unreliable. But there is another variable: new data from soundings. I'm certainly not a met, but from a scientific standpoint, when there are two variables, you can't just throw one out because "oh, well that's always this way." There is no new data that went into the 21z sref since they simply use a combo of gfs and rap ics, along with a myriad of initial, boundary, and model perturbations. No have no idea what you mean regarding this magical new sounding data. Sorry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neff Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 And I'm definitely not apologizing for not caring about a state outside of our subforum. Not asking anyone here to care about PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neff Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 There is no new data that went into the 21z sref since they simply use a combo of gfs and rap ics, along with a myriad of initial, boundary, and model perturbations. No have no idea what you mean regarding this magical new sounding data. Sorry. Thank you. There was a bulletin that went out saying special sounding was supposed to start at 18z, thought this data might be rolled into the 21z SREF. Wasn't sure if the change was due to unreliable model or new ingested data. CRITICAL WEATHER DAY STATUS... CWD WILL BE DECLARED AT 21/1200Z AND EXTEND THROUGH 24/1200Z DUE TO ANTICIPATED IMPACTS FROM A LATE WEEK WINTER STORM IMPACTING THE U.S. EAST COAST. IN SUPPORT OF MONITORING THE EVOLUTION OF A LATE WEEK WINTER STORM EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE U.S. EAST COAST, SPECIAL SOUNDINGS ARE REQUESTED BEGINNING TODAY AT 1800Z. ALL REGIONAL DIRECTORS HAVE APPROVED THE SPECIAL SOUNDING RELEASE SCHEDULE BELOW. IF THERE ARE ANY QUESTIONS, CONTACT YOUR REGION OR THE SDM. *** SPECIAL SOUNDING REQUESTS *** CENTRAL REGION: ENTIRE REGION FROM 20/1800Z TO 22/0600Z SOUTHERN REGION: EXCLUDING TX AND FL...FROM TX EASTWARD BEGINNING FROM 21/1800Z TO 22/1800Z. EASTERN REGION: WFOs RNK, GSO, MHX, IAD, PIT, OKX, ALB, CHH BEGINNING FROM 21/1800Z TO 23/0600Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Thank you. There was a bulletin that went out saying special sounding was supposed to start at 18z, thought this data might be rolled into the 21z SREF. Wasn't sure if the change was due to unreliable model or new ingested data.No, those would be assimilated into the 18Z cycle analyses. The models run late enough to receive and use such data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 It wasn't even accurate model output... The discussion was illegitimate from the start because it was only half the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windman18 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Quite a few 2-4"/hr. Panels on the nam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adelphi_sky Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Great show. I'm learning a lot. I need to listen to these shows more often. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neff Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 No, those would be assimilated into the 18Z cycle analyses. The models run late enough to receive and use such data. Thanks again. Did not know the SREF was a conglomeration of 18z data with some extra datapoints tacked on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Mike Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 If I wanted to troll, I'd have posted something along the lines of "hahahaha, sucks to be you guys, ****ers!" Please go very far away. Thx. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacChump Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 The nugget nectar this year is the sh!t Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Feast on the NAMbisquit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neff Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 The nugget nectar this year is the sh!t GTFO yankee Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
terpsnation Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 With the NAM pushing the northern precip shield even more north, might this be due to it overamplifying which allows the shield to overcome the high pressure up over New England? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 The nugget nectar this year is the sh!t Overrated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neff Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Please go very far away. Thx. oh jmike...it's been awhile, how've you been? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 #jackpotville Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacChump Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 GTFO yankeecrack open a storm king...but just one, they'll knock you down if you get cocky Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacChump Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Overrated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 #jackpotville ImageUploadedByTapatalk1453429044.552090.jpg It's even heart-shaped for you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCS Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Costco Gaithersburg, MD. No water. The Apocalypse is upon us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 It's even heart-shaped for you The nam loves me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gocaps Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 We've got the 4K NAM and now we've got the 4K RON. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 The nam loves me Does it use the SREF for data? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Gotta love the excitement in the guys voices on the radio show. That should tell you what you need to know. We are getting crushed! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ImThat1Guy Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Radio show quote: "Can you see the final QPF on the NAM? I mean not that it matters." Classic NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kat Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Nam is a full blown Yankee screamer. Congrats southern NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 lol. 3" QPF for us....Epic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeSuck Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Nam is a piece of sh*t. Can't believe it has Boston getting hammered now lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.