yhbrooklyn Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 There are actually a few Euro EPS members that have close to no precipitation in New York. Ultimately I think both the ARW and NMMB runs of the SREF are hyper over and under aggressive, and don't seem well tuned to be used together in an ensemble. That's why I'm not a fan of SREF guidance in general, and the latest simulation exemplifies these problems.Thank you for the explanation. Thanks Phil for taking the time to explain this stuff, good discussion w you and Don.Way to steal my thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Treckasec Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 4-km NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 With all the data ingested by the models, a northern push like what we are seeing is looking much more plausible. Fingers crossed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yhbrooklyn Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 4-km NAM The colors on that are awful. But awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Treckasec Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 How come the Tropical Tidbits map is a bit different? More snow. I checked 10:1 ratio on Pivotal and it looked pretty much the same as the ratio version. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 There are actually a few Euro EPS members that have close to no precipitation in New York. Ultimately I think both the ARW and NMMB runs of the SREF are hyper over and under aggressive, and don't seem well tuned to be used together in an ensemble. That's why I'm not a fan of SREF guidance in general, and the latest simulation exemplifies these problems. Some change must have occurred to the SREFs around 2012 or so because I recall during the 09-10 and 10-11 winters they seemed unstoppable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 The RGEM went north by a good degree. Kinda close to the NAM and it's still pretty impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 The RGEM went north by a good degree. Kinda close to the NAM and it's still pretty impressive. That's good for you guys, IMO even more than the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tdp146 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Well all I can say is if the short range models verify enjoy your electric tonight and tomorrow cause once sanitation starts dropping salt in the city this guy is going to be busy restoring your power for the next few days already told by con Ed I am working this weekendThank you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 NAM with proper ratios Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 4km NAM has 20 inches for the city verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Remember, ratios would be close to 10:1 because of the strong winds. Strong winds break flakes up and lower ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 As depicted by NAM, this would easily be the third category 5 snow storm on record. Might be number 2 on the list ahead of the 1996 blizzard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mcwx Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 NAM with proper ratios I'm assuming the light blue east central PA northeastward through New England is the 20+ range and not the 4.5-5" range? They couldn't have used different colors? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Just clarifying. The RGEM might have come north, but it's still quite south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bboughton Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 If the GFS comes in like this, a lot of information is going to have to get out to state and local governments pretty quickly... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Just clarifying. The RGEM might have come north, but it's still quite south. Which is it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Imagine 10 inches in Raleigh and 10 in Boston in same storm. If only. We can hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Just clarifying. The RGEM might have come north, but it's still quite south.It's far better than what the 18Z RGEM had. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Lol that's textbook 96... I remember the sun came out on LI while snows persisted NYC & N & W[/quot Happebed in CT too and still got 27 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Imagine 10 inches in Raleigh and 10 in Boston in same storm. If only. We can hope. The NAM is likely overdone. C'mon, we've seen the NAM do this so many times. I can see it ticking north, enough to make things a lot more significant around NYC, but a foot of snow in Albany is probably not happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 The SNE forum showed frames from the RGEM, and to me it didn't look better. If anything, maybe a bit south. Maybe I'm missing something, but what I saw looked nothing like the NAM. Snow struggles to make it north of NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 The SNE forum showed frames from the RGEM, and to me it didn't look better. If anything, maybe a bit south. Maybe I'm missing something, but what I saw looked nothing like the NAM. Snow struggles to make it north of NYC. It's north of the 18z run and at hour 48, there is a push north and good precip into NWNJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 The SNE forum showed frames from the RGEM, and to me it didn't look better. If anything, maybe a bit south. Maybe I'm missing something, but what I saw looked nothing like the NAM. Snow struggles to make it north of NYC.It's north of 18z. That's what we are looking at . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 http://www.weather.com/weather/5day/l/11235:4:USTWC updated my area to 9-15 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 It's north of 18z. That's what we are looking at . Looks pretty similar to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BL03 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 RGEM @ 48hrs http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Pretty good for NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
F5TornadoF5 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Looks pretty similar to me. On tropical tidbit out to 30hrs. 00z precip field looks further north than 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 RGEM @ 48hrs rgem.PNG http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Pretty good for NYC OK. That's a step in the right direction at least, if that's a nudge north from 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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