1/23-24 Randytastic Snowstorm Part 2 STORM MODE THREAD

[jm1220]

His initial snowfall map was the most laughable of all. He was way way south.

At the time the more reliable models were keeping the heavy snow from Philly south, so that was a perfectly legitimate way to go. Heck, I was tempted to go that way myself and I thought that even if this did make it to NYC, this would be a normal 6-10" type event. We've been shafted by suppression fairly recently. Not too far north of NYC, that's what happened. Boston only had 6", in the 1996 blizzard they had 18". The NAM as I see it deserves a pat on the back but not a better seat at the table. We've been burned by the NAM many times, most glaringly last January when it was insisting on 3 feet of snow in NYC close in. The Euro did get this partly right and led models in showing a more suppressed system that could miss New England, which mostly did happen. Models at one point had crushing snow into NH. So we need to keep this all in perspective.

John does an excellent job explaining his methodology, and is highly professional and knowledgeable. Pinning down sharp gradient storms like these is almost impossible for this area. Had you been DC and locked in for a massive storm for days, I would've come home for it. By the time I had to decide, only the NAM and barely the GFS showed a warning level snow event in NYC.

[MJO812]

He was ripping the NAM until 12 hours out

Not only him but many people.

[bluewave]

The biggest snowstorms in NYC sometimes end up coming north in the last few runs before the storm

begins. I can remember early forecasts for the Feb 83 and Jan 96 initially forecasting the jackpot

to stay down near Philly. That's why I was relieved when I saw the Feb 83 storm begin almost

instantly with a wall of heavy snow. All morning I was noting the brighter skies to the north

and darker to the south. The 96 forecast were great for Philly on Friday and didn't really

improve until the Saturday morning forecasts for NYC.

 

As for the NAM, I wonder how much of this was just a broken clock being right twice a day scenario.

Most of the time it's too juiced with precip totals here and the GFS and Euro score better. So it

may have been right not because it's a more skillful model, but a situation finally arrived where

its bias turned out to work for it.

[Rjay]

Not only him but many people.

Including me.

[USCG RS]

Including me.

John is an excellent met and aways backs his predictions with science. I, have learned a plethora of very useful info - which instructor's neglected to teach- from him.

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[USCG RS]

The biggest snowstorms in NYC sometimes end up coming north in the last few runs before the storm

begins. I can remember early forecasts for the Feb 83 and Jan 96 initially forecasting the jackpot

to stay down near Philly. That's why I was relieved when I saw the Feb 83 storm begin almost

instantly with a wall of heavy snow. All morning I was noting the brighter skies to the north

and darker to the south. The 96 forecast were great for Philly on Friday and didn't really

improve until the Saturday morning forecasts for NYC.

As for the NAM, I wonder how much of this was just a broken clock being right twice a day scenario.

Most of the time it's too juiced with precip totals here and the GFS and Euro score better. So it

may have been right not because it's a more skillful model, but a situation finally arrived where

its bias turned out to work for it.

Might I ask, and this could be just pure speculation, but is it possible that the big storms coming northwest have anything to do with the curvature of the earth as they approach the higher latitudes?

[Stormlover74]

Interesting Central Park is already down to 9". Last year it seemed like they held on to their snowpack way longer than other sites. I wonder if those measurements were just eyeballed

 

[Cfa]

I wonder how JFK & EWR are maintaining their snowpacks better than everywhere else in the region.

[Stormlover74]

I wonder how JFK & EWR are maintaining their snowpacks better than everywhere else in the region.

Also EWR had 8" less the next morning than their official total while JFK the difference was only 2"

[jm1220]

Might I ask, and this could be just pure speculation, but is it possible that the big storms coming northwest have anything to do with the curvature of the earth as they approach the higher latitudes?

What really helped was that the storm reached way down to the Gulf to generate convection the night before it came up, and had a tap straight to the El Niño. That pumped the ridge ahead of it and forced a more westerly track through latent heat release. Once the models saw this, they unanimously finally shifted north. It tucked in off the Delmarva and stuck around for long enough to deliver the massive snow totals it did. Also, the convection well offshore in the Atlantic didn't seem to have an effect as most models said it would.

Models have sometimes missed this convective effect and messed up the placement of the low.

[USCG RS]

What really helped was that the storm reached way down to the Gulf to generate convection the night before it came up, and had a tap straight to the El Niño. That pumped the ridge ahead of it and forced a more westerly track through latent heat release. Once the models saw this, they unanimously finally shifted north. It tucked in off the Delmarva and stuck around for long enough to deliver the massive snow totals it did. Also, the convection well offshore in the Atlantic didn't seem to have an effect as most models said it would.

Models have sometimes missed this convective effect and messed up the placement of the low.

100% agree, which is why I doibled down on my call for the tri state area when I saw this taking place. However, i was wondering if overall the curvature of the earth (increasing as you get towards the higher latitudes) could potentially be influencing these larger storms. More of a physics question I would say.

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[nzucker]

Interesting Central Park is already down to 9". Last year it seemed like they held on to their snowpack way longer than other sites. I wonder if those measurements were just eyeballed

Central Park got less snow than JFK, so that explains one difference.

We had very heavy fog last night, which cost us a good bit of the snowpack. Fog at 48/48 is an efficient way to melt snow.

[jm1220]

Central Park got less snow than JFK, so that explains one difference.

We had very heavy fog last night, which cost us a good bit of the snowpack. Fog at 48/48 is an efficient way to melt snow.

In 2010-11, I saw a foot of snow disappear in a day from the foggy coastal fronts that pushed maybe 10 miles inland. Brutal. The 48F temperature isn't so bad, but the 48F dewpoint indicates that there's a larger total amount of heat being transported into the snowpack, destroying it. 

 

I'd absolutely love seeing a blizzard like what most of you had, it would be sad seeing it melt so fast. Soon enough, there will be the big dirt piles left, which is likely what I'll see when I come back in late March for a week.