stlirish Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Does NAM bust high totals for DC? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 4am Sunday. Backend of snow at NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 So Nam held serve, thats consistent QPF last 2 runs ( and down into slight more realistic from the previous 3+ QPF) More than 2 runs.. Nam was well north of ALL guidance last night at 00z as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Saturday night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 You might well be right. We're still about 54-60 hours from the onset of the event here, so I think there's some basis for caution. If tomorrow's 12z runs and subsequent runs continue to show the same solution, especially if the other guidance moves into closer agreement, that would be a pretty strong argument for a bigger event. That the 18z GFS had a nice increase in QPF and the more stable components of the SREFS also showed an increase in QPF is encouraging. Don - think you have a typo - we're 30-36 hours from the time the model started running (7 pm) until precip starts hitting around here, maybe 1-7 am on Saturday. I thought the NAM was supposed to be better inside 36 hours. Another question: don't all the 0Z and 12Z models, including the Euro, ingest the same t=0 initialization data at 0Z and 12Z, even if their outputs might come out a few hours off from each other? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Not to nitpick, but many of us are engulfed in snow in 36 hrs Good point. I do believe the earlier part of its run is a higher confidence proposition than the later part. Of course, I could be wrong. Moreover, I made a typo and referred to 48-54 hours. Today's Thursday. I should have mentioned 24-30 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Snows from hour 42-60 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Nam loops the low sw as its about to pull away... You know what else did that.............? 96 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 The 4K NAM is much better than 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fields27 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 NAM loops low back SW I think it focuses on the wrong energy and jumps the low one frame(hr45) then back to the main convection the next frame(hr48). Don't think it jumps back sw like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Don - think you have a typo - we're 30-36 hours from the time the model started running (7 pm) until precip starts hitting around here, maybe 1-7 am on Saturday. I thought the NAM was supposed to be better inside 36 hours. Another question: don't all the 0Z and 12Z models, including the Euro, ingest the same t=0 initialization data at 0Z and 12Z, even if their outputs might come out a few hours off from each other? Yes. I just removed that part. We're closer to the NAM's better timeframe. I regret the error. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted January 22, 2016 Author Share Posted January 22, 2016 Yes. I just removed that part. We're closer to the NAM's better timeframe. I regret the error. Thanks Don too for all the work you put in with the stats and data for us. appreciate it, greatly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 HOLY CANNOLI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman86 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 HOLY CANNOLI Am i seeing what i think im seeing Snow88 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 This is as close as we get to dry slotting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Am i seeing what i think im seeing Snow88 24 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 4k nam looks north and improved as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Comparing RGEM precip @ 12hrs compared to 18z @ 18 hours it is farther N ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfreeeeak Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 4K NAM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 0z RPM crushes the whole area. 4K Nam is also beautiful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rittenhouse Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 FWIW NAM makes the most climatological sense. It fits perfectly with all the analogs for this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 RGEM coming N boys Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman86 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 One more day and if this remains the same and we are in business. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Incharge1976 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 4k looks great. Looks almost identical to 12km Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 This is as close as we get to dry slotting Lol that's textbook 96... I remember the sun came out on LI while snows persisted NYC & N & W Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 If the RGEM bites on this, it becomes a whole lot more interesting IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 RGEM coming N boys What hour... What's your link to the fastest release? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BL03 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 00z NAM is encouraging with h5 low movement and depiction, more NE movement, very favorable for the region. Also slower with the kicker in C Canada just north of North Dakota than GFS. And with the increased ridging in front all this helps. Lets see if its real now...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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