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1/23-24 Randytastic Snowstorm Part 2 STORM MODE THREAD


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Latest from Craig Allen:

 

Where we stand....8am.Live all morning on ‪#‎wcbs880‬
-Very heavy banding since 3am. Perhaps the heaviest of the day with snowfall rates of 2-4" per hour.
-But, definite breaks and big dry slot showing up from south & southeast. Precip is pivoting; it's moving counterclockwise, so much less intense snowfall will back in from mid to late morning in some areas.
-All models show snow of varying intensity continuing throughout the day. HRRR and RAP are the heaviest and they are very good
tools to use at this point. They continue to show a total of 18-24"
but where dry slot(s) set up will determine if that's achieved.
-NAM4k has come back down to earth a bit with much more reasonable amounts. Nam12k is still on steroids (Edit- Just saw latest 12 nam; even that has backed off from its 30-40"...more in line with others now.)
-Consensus from all other models is 12-18" with pockets and bands of 18-24" from NYC west, south & east.
-Amounts decrease markedly with distance north of the City, on up to and beyond I-84.
-Started early; will end early. Last bands should pivot away after dark. Most likely done before midnight.
-While precip intensity will vary from that point on, the wind will remain dangerously strong, gusting over 50 mph all day.
-Worst tidal flooding this morning was down the NJ shore. High tide now in L.I. Sound. Next high tide this evening still may produce a 2 to 4 foot surge.

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Nowhere near as heavy as 7 am this morning here is Westbury. Definitely see a breakup in precip and echoes. I think 24 is pushing it for Suffolk County though. About 7-8" at my house in Kings Park as of 9:30 am. Looking at the radar at work (I'm an ATSS with the FAA) definite drop in precip points East of JFK and LGA.

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Latest from Craig Allen:

 

Where we stand....8am.Live all morning on ‪#‎wcbs880‬

-Very heavy banding since 3am. Perhaps the heaviest of the day with snowfall rates of 2-4" per hour.

-But, definite breaks and big dry slot showing up from south & southeast. Precip is pivoting; it's moving counterclockwise, so much less intense snowfall will back in from mid to late morning in some areas.

-All models show snow of varying intensity continuing throughout the day. HRRR and RAP are the heaviest and they are very good

tools to use at this point. They continue to show a total of 18-24"

but where dry slot(s) set up will determine if that's achieved.

-NAM4k has come back down to earth a bit with much more reasonable amounts. Nam12k is still on steroids (Edit- Just saw latest 12 nam; even that has backed off from its 30-40"...more in line with others now.)

-Consensus from all other models is 12-18" with pockets and bands of 18-24" from NYC west, south & east.

-Amounts decrease markedly with distance north of the City, on up to and beyond I-84.

-Started early; will end early. Last bands should pivot away after dark. Most likely done before midnight.

-While precip intensity will vary from that point on, the wind will remain dangerously strong, gusting over 50 mph all day.

-Worst tidal flooding this morning was down the NJ shore. High tide now in L.I. Sound. Next high tide this evening still may produce a 2 to 4 foot surge.

That dry slot has been filling in all morning.

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