kevbo81 Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 what's the justification for such an upgrade in totals? Updated Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 This is only through 18z lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 what's the justification for such an upgrade in totals? If you're asking that at this point you probably just got out from under a rock. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 Feel bad for them too. They should still do well regardless. Should that be a concern of ours as well tomorrow? DC should do well through daybreak, then it comes down to how far the dryslot makes it. If the NAM is right, their really heavy snow shuts off not far after and the focus shifts to NYC/Long Island and down to the NW suburbs of DC, and then DC gets some more at the end when the CCB pivots through. The 24-30" being predicted for them really should be decided by what happens overnight, they're in some very nice echos now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevbo81 Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 If you're asking that at this point you should probably just got out from under a rock. that's not fair. we've been on the fringe for a while now... try a constructive explanation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 Ummmmm has anyone seen the extended HRRR? Builds heavy precip back west, precip actually fills in and heads due west on a massive pivoting band over the entire area... Dumps for hours and hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/index.php Is there a good link to a free water vapor loop?I have seen mentioned a few times with this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 3pm Tomorow and it's still building after this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 TWC just refuses to raise NYC to 18-24", they pretty much stop that level on Staten Island and just over the GWB. They mention "NYC should receive some very heavy snow and the computer models are racking up the action there". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 Impossible not to be nears tears of joy, I think deep down most of us are avid and insane pro winter weather advocates and having said that we watch all these storms dreaming of precisely such a situation. The fact that NO ONE could have predicted the flood gates to the snow machine opening up like this on a day that started with most thinking will be lucky to scrape together 4-8 in the city and now we are walking down a tunnel filled with the reality of a mega blizzard is nothing short of dream. I actually write for a living and I just wrote the longest run on sentence of my writing career is only a byproduct of incredible emotion. Snowflakes at record pace can turn men into children. Pure amzing, please enjoy every second & drink tons of coffe. My wife just made my frist mega mug Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 Someone post the image from this link. Too tired. I need a short nap. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0057.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 TWC just refuses to raise NYC to 18-24", they pretty much stop that level on Staten Island and just over the GWB. They mention "NYC should receive some very heavy snow and the computer models are racking up the action there". They have my area in the 18-24". The local on the 8 has 3-5" tonight and it actually says snowfall of a foot or better tomorrow with winds of 25-35MPH, gusting to 50MPH. Blizzard conditions. It's some of the strongest wording I've ever seen from them. Starting to think that 18" amounts might be on the low side of the envelope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 what's the justification for such an upgrade in totals? Every single piece of guidance basically slid towards the nam which was producing an insane amount of snow for nyc metro. AND, the early returns down south confirm the nam was in fact correct. now we obv know nyc isnt getting 50" like the nam is spitting out. qpf overdone, but it so far has done the best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 Someone post the image from this link. Too tired. I need a short nap. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0057.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevbo81 Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 Still, many pro forecasters say 'cut the nam qpf in half.' 18-24" is too high...once past 18" it's a moot point. Every single piece of guidance basically slid towards the nam which was producing an insane amount of snow for nyc metro. AND, the early returns down south confirm the nam was in fact correct. now we obv know nyc isnt getting 50" like the nam is spitting out. qpf overdone, but it so far has done the best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hooralph Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 TWC is still saying 5-8... Maybe 8-12 for NYC in their scroll??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 Southeast VA is busting hard!! This things coming north guys.. And I mean due north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 Down towards Harrisonburg, VA or so on I-81, looks like the dry slot is already on them. Looks like they'll underperform vs. the forecasts down that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikeysed Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 Can I simply say this.... These totals are what the NAM said. Everything falling is north... this is going to dump on most of the area from LHV south and into the coast of SNE...NAM I won't say S*** again until you prove me wrong... it got this storm right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 These water temps are completely insane. Completely. Insane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 Also, yellow echos are heading up towards DC from the southeast. Mixing must be getting pretty close. Wow, this is really defying expectations. Sleet line actually looks to be fairly steady, but making a move towards Annapolis. http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/index.php?type=LWX-N0C-1-6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 Down towards Harrisonburg, VA or so on I-81, looks like the dry slot is already on them. Looks like they'll underperform vs. the forecasts down that way. I checked and the traffic cams down there still show snow at a pretty good clip. The radar is never that great in that area, it's on the edge of two radars. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 Southeast VA is busting hard!! This things coming north guys.. And I mean due north A man can dream... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 A man can dream... Have u seen the HRRR and RAP? Lol... This thing almost hugs the jersey coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowblind Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 Have u seen the HRRR and RAP? Lol... This thing almost hugs the jersey coast bring it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shadowsintherain Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 When's the Euro out? Lol Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 I checked and the traffic cams down there still show snow at a pretty good clip. The radar is never that great in that area, it's on the edge of two radars. The Roanoke radar shows snow shut off throughout most of that area too. Have to admit, it's not looking too good for much of western Virginia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 I'm up to 10 dew point, and 55% RH... Shouldn't Virga much at all, and I'm wayyyy north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 The Roanoke radar shows snow shut off throughout most of that area too. Have to admit, it's not looking too good for much of western Virginia. 2010 in reverse? Lmao Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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