donsutherland1 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Who is doing the Radio Show? Wes, DT, Will, Randy, Marcus, Westministerdeathband. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 I think we're all skeptical but 3 consecutive jogs to the north plus new data raises an eyebrow. It's not like the NAM is totally clueless, especially this close in. GFS also has slowly moved towards it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted January 22, 2016 Author Share Posted January 22, 2016 Radio show: http://www.blogtalkradio.com/americanwx/2016/01/22/american-weather-radio-show-1212016-potential-east-coast-storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Everyone dry slots by Saturday evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 That said, the NAM is known for head-fakes like this. We need to watch the other models later. But if they move north as well, it's almost certainly real this close in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Treckasec Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 It's great the NAM is supporting big snows but like Animal said, we need the GFS and EURO on board too with similar results for me to get really pumped. GFS and EURO seems 12-18, while NAM I'm guessing is more. If the GFS and EURO bump it up tonight/tomorrow then I'll be pretty stoked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 A reminder. The GFS also has the same ingested data. So let's see what will come from it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 I don't disagree. If the more skillful guidance begins to move in the direction of the NAM, then confidence in such an outcome would increase. I dunno Don. Regionals have pretty good skill at this time horizon in the region they're tuned to. The globals are clearly in a separate camp but that's not necessarily a "skill" difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Will be interesting to see whether the 4K comes north too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 I don't disagree. If the more skillful guidance begins to move in the direction of the NAM, then confidence in such an outcome would increase. At least, if gfs shows another move north, would lead to idea that, ultimate solution might not be as extreme as nam, but something inbetween. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 GFS will have same hurricane hunter data as NAM.. Should be interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Sne crushed on the nam also Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Radio show: http://www.blogtalkradio.com/americanwx/2016/01/22/american-weather-radio-show-1212016-potential-east-coast-storm Thank you sir! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Snowing up to New Hampshire Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
killabud Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 lets not forget what the 18z gfs and gefs did it's not JUST the srefs and nam...they're likely overdone,but you shouldn't be looking at them for qpf anyway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 This is about 2500 feet above the surface Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 The NAM gets heavy precip well into Massachusetts.....trends today are huge, big totals incoming it seems.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Biggest difference IMO, no double barrel low, less convection to pull the low east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Storm would probably stop for awhile West of the city on Saturday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 I dunno Don. Regionals have pretty good skill at this time horizon in the region they're tuned to. The globals are clearly in a separate camp but that's not necessarily a "skill" difference. You might well be right. If tomorrow's 12z runs and subsequent runs continue to show the same solution, especially if the other guidance moves into closer agreement, that would be a pretty strong argument for a bigger event. That the 18z GFS had a nice increase in QPF and the more stable components of the SREFS also showed an increase in QPF is encouraging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Roughly 1.50-2.00" LE areawide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 00z NAM looks good from this perspective... Its usually beyond 48 hrs its horrible! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 lol more heavy snow at hr 57 NYC east as the LP scoots out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfreeeeak Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 NAM would beautiful for everyone..lets see what the GFS has to say Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 The deform band sinks back South a little and dumps from Boston to about Morristown Saturday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 At what point do we stop ignoring, the euro came slightly north, the GFS took a nice jump north, the SREFS have climbed north run by run, and are in line with he nam. The RAP lines up with NAM, and JMA is WELL north....GFS and EURO are coming north tonight or tomorrow... Gotta be Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 You might well be right. We're still about 54-60 hours from the onset of the event here, so I think there's some basis for caution. If tomorrow's 12z runs and subsequent runs continue to show the same solution, especially if the other guidance moves into closer agreement, that would be a pretty strong argument for a bigger event. That the 18z GFS had a nice increase in QPF and the more stable components of the SREFS also showed an increase in QPF is encouraging. Not to nitpick, but many of us are engulfed in snow in 36 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Roughly 1.50-2.00" LE areawide. So Nam held serve, thats consistent QPF last 2 runs ( and down into slight more realistic from the previous 3+ QPF) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 NAM is a crush job. condo crusher Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jason WX Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 NAM loops low back SW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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