NittanyWx Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 Just like Sundays event, models slow to recognize explosive potential of very warm SST's and where the baroclinic zone truly is. These late northward model trends are not a surprise if you've been paying attention Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman86 Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 Ahh okay i see thanks for clearing that up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mranger48 Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 Reading on DTs fb and many pissed off Virginians posting they have transitioned to unexpected sleet and rain. This is such a dynamic storm. So many unexpected twists and turns. Can the mix line actually make it up to DC? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 The GGEM finally caved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 I think the city declared a snow emergency earlier today when it looked strongly like snow amounts were increasing. Mitchell Volk's a top notch met and he's the Sanitation Department's forecaster. 20"+ amounts are always tough to manage, but NYC has the resources. Cuomo and deblasio are going to be sweating this. I wonder what the earliest press conference has ever been lol. I am sure there will be a state of emergency in the morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 Quick question when you say 3.18 LE is the LE low end Stands for Liquid Equivalent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yankeex777 Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 Quick question when you say 3.18 LE is the LE low end Liquid equivalent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 Lonnie Quinn says the confluence models showed to be in place is breaking apart at a rapid pace. Almost hourly... Anyone confirm that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 Quick question when you say 3.18 LE is the LE low end Liquid Equivalent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 Lonnie Quinn says the confluence models showed to be in place is breaking apart at a rapid pace. Almost hourly... Anyone confirm that? That's him back peddling on his bogus forecast from all evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 It's not the SSTs being a few above normal. These systems from down south are notorious for that. Add in the tremendous frontogenesis and divergence and deformaton signal, and the QPF tends to move further north than one may think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 Reading on DTs fb and many pissed off Virginians posting they have transitioned to unexpected sleet and rain. This is such a dynamic storm. So many unexpected twists and turns. Can the mix line actually make it up to DC? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Bummer when they were expecting HECS totals of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 Lonnie Quinn says the confluence models showed to be in place is breaking apart at a rapid pace. Almost hourly... Anyone confirm that? He's been behind the 8 ball for days on this storm. Disregard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 A little early still to be declaring victory but it would appear that the NAM did the overall best and the GGEM did the overall worst of all the guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cut Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 Ouch, Channel 8 in New Haven calling for max amounts for 6-8 inches. Major bust there I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchel Volk Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 I just raised my amounts to 15"-24". I am thinking a 10-1 ratio due to the strong winds. I can see more is we really get into one of those mega bans. That is a now casting type of thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 Whats bufkit? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 Latest HRRR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 It's not the SSTs being a few above normal. These systems from down south are notorious for that. Add in the tremendous frontogenesis and divergence and deformaton signal, and the QPF tends to move further north than one may think. The same signal was there on 2/6/10 and the confluence overcame that for north of Trenton. 500mb charts for this event always resembled Jan 1996, and the confluence to squash it was there, but nothing like in 2010. So this probably ends up somewhere between 1/1996 and 2/2010 in terms of northern extent. Boston so far looks to be on the outs, unfortunately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 NAM is overdone...there will not be 50" lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYGiantsFan99 Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 accuweather calling for 6-10 just west of nyc i dont know of a bigger bust... bernie is better than this i think? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 I just raised my amounts to 15"-24". I am thinking a 10-1 ratio due to the strong winds. I can see more is we really get into one of those mega bans. That is a now casting type of thing. Knock 'em dead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 Damn, Virginia Beach, VA is up to nearly 50F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 This is 1 hour snowfall rates at the tail end of the run or 00z Sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 CMC is near 20 inches for NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 Damn, Virginia Beach, VA is up to nearly 50F. This has a tap straight to the Pacific-look at the satellite. This one's taking no prisoners. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 I just raised my amounts to 15"-24". I am thinking a 10-1 ratio due to the strong winds. I can see more is we really get into one of those mega bans. That is a now casting type of thing. Thank God you're making a good forecast unlike the news outlets. At least the man in charge of the whole operation knows what's going on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jasperk99 Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 Sorry for another Lonnie Quinn post...... Did anyone watch his report just now, what is he talking about the storm moving due north, and the storm threading the "30 mile" needle that it matches the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 The GGEM finally caved. I think I might cry. epic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shadowsintherain Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 Yeah. Me too. Any science involved with Lonnie there? Lol Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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