donsutherland1 Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 Great call. I appreciate all the NWS is doing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billgwx Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 Last post of the night here. While I wouldn't necessarily focus on the amounts, the hi-res models are entering the time frame where they will do better with timing and location of mesoscale banding. In that respect the HRRR and RAP are the real deal to me, though the 23Z RAP might have some convective issues given those extreme amounts. Winds being what they are forecast to be, looks like instant blizzard by 9-10 AM Saturday morning for NYC/LI if not a little sooner... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
F5TornadoF5 Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 Last post of the night here. While I wouldn't necessarily focus on the amounts, the hi-res models are entering the time frame where they will do better with timing and location of mesoscale banding. In that respect the HRRR and RAP are the real deal to me, though the 23Z RAP might have some convective issues given those extreme amounts. Winds being what they are forecast to be, looks like instant blizzard by 9-10 AM Saturday morning for NYC/LI if not a little sooner... Thanks for the inside scoop! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 Nams stronger and more amped already.. North too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 Last post of the night here. While I wouldn't necessarily focus on the amounts, the hi-res models are entering the time frame where they will do better with timing and location of mesoscale banding. In that respect the HRRR and RAP are the real deal to me, though the 23Z RAP might have some convective issues given those extreme amounts. Winds being what they are forecast to be, looks like instant blizzard by 9-10 AM Saturday morning for NYC/LI if not a little sooner... Thank you for your thoughts, wish you would post more often. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rittenhouse Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 The band shows up nicely on the upper air maps. Bullseye for NYC and LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 @ hr 19 the CCB is absurd wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 Eastern low takes over faster, may be bad for northern fringe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 Lol low goes back west at 21 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jason WX Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 wow.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 City is getting CRUSHED Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bkviking Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 Last post of the night here. While I wouldn't necessarily focus on the amounts, the hi-res models are entering the time frame where they will do better with timing and location of mesoscale banding. In that respect the HRRR and RAP are the real deal to me, though the 23Z RAP might have some convective issues given those extreme amounts. Winds being what they are forecast to be, looks like instant blizzard by 9-10 AM Saturday morning for NYC/LI if not a little sooner... Great to have the presence of Dr Goodman on this board. Gave a great storm spotter training at Upton few years back and I remember feeling a bit giddy meeting one of our best local mets.. Anyway, sage advice from a scientist with class.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 condo crusher. Holy cow Wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 IF this DOES come true, this is a HUGE win for the NAM....Just wow.....the LONG RANGE NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 The band shows up nicely on the upper air maps. Bullseye for NYC and LI. Wow, that is going to be one insane band when it comes through. A few inches per hour easy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 @ hr 25 the death band hasn't moved an inch. This is probably the sickest run I've ever seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ScottB Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 Over 3.00 qpf for all of central nj through the city at h27 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 This could be a storm talked about for a long time for NYC if these predictions happen. The snow amounts plus the wind strength/blizzard conditions plus (unfortunately) the coastal flooding impact. This might end up being a bigger overall impact around NYC than DC. Hopefully the NYC Sanitation Department is caught up, unlike Boxing Day 2010. Mitchell Volk I'm sure will play a key part in that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 Nam brings anyone north of Rockland to reality lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeS Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 Last post of the night here. While I wouldn't necessarily focus on the amounts, the hi-res models are entering the time frame where they will do better with timing and location of mesoscale banding. In that respect the HRRR and RAP are the real deal to me, though the 23Z RAP might have some convective issues given those extreme amounts. Winds being what they are forecast to be, looks like instant blizzard by 9-10 AM Saturday morning for NYC/LI if not a little sooner...Great post Bill. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 Better news.....the 4km NAM is insane and matches the OP....EXTREMELY heavy snow tomorrow. On the 4km, there is actually mixing showing up in the heavy banding. Could this occur? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 3" QPF for NYC and 3.5" QPF west of NYC into NJ... I actually have no words for this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 Nam brings anyone north of Rockland to reality lol Not that bad...It snows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 That is a classic northern edge fronto band....it just runs into a wall...the upper levels are practically splitting air molecules. I had mentioned this on the radio show last night that someone on the north side of the precip shield will get crushed. NAM likely overdoes it but it at least gives the idea that there will be some intense bands somewhere on the north side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 4K nam is a 975mb monster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeS Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 The NAM gives most of the area 30"+ lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 That is a classic northern edge fronto band....it just runs into a wall...the upper levels are practically splitting air molecules. I had mentioned this on the radio show last night that someone on the north side of the precip shield will get crushed. NAM likely overdoes it but it at least gives the idea that there will be some intense bands somewhere on the north side. And someone just 10 miles north of those "crushed" will have their hearts crushed!!! Tight, tight gradient with this one!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jason WX Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 don't even know what to say at this point.... WOW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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