brooklynwx99 Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 Look at the radar south of Cape May-Intense banding down there. That's where the huge accumulations will come from later. Isn't the banding much earlier than expected? That might be in the area by midnight or even earlier. The news outlets I watched said that the first flakes would start at midnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 Yeaaaaa... So HRRR had northern precip shield, albeit it's Virga, reaching NYC at around midnight.... It's now 8pm and NYC is under Virga... Is her a single model Out here that has a clue?!?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 Yeaaaaa... So HRRR had northern precip shield, albeit it's Virga, reaching NYC at around midnight.... It's now 8pm and NYC is under Virga... Is her a single model Out here that has a clue?!?! Some of the news outlets for NYC are still forecasting a foot of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SRRTA22 Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 Some of the news outlets for NYC are still forecasting a foot of snow ? 12 inches is a good forecast for NYC, yes there may be more or there may be less but 12" is the perfect middle ground ATM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
killabud Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 srefs still good,in case anyone wondering Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 Through 0z, the 12z GFS has been verifying better than the 12z NAM when it comes to QPF in parts of North Carolina, Virginia, Maryland, Delaware, and Pennsylvania. The NAM has done better in Charlottesville and Richmond. The GFS has done better in Baltimore, Harrisburg, Raleigh, Roanoke, Sterling, Washington, DC and Wilmington (DE). In general, the NAM was too aggressive in boosting QPF through 0z. It's still uncertain whether this is merely a matter of timing or an overall better forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 Isn't the banding much earlier than expected? That might be in the area by midnight or even earlier. The news outlets I watched said that the first flakes would start at midnight. It's going to take its time moving north. There's dry air to overcome and the strong lift will take a while to reach NYC, but it will get there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCGreg Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 srefs still good,in case anyone wondering What did they show? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rogue Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 most likely not as good as previous runs. Typically people post it as soon as it come out. 21z SREF is another excellent run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rogue Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 21z SREF qpf is off the charts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 The 00Z RPM is coming in a lot better seems more agressive with the precip and farther north. And i checked back with the HRRRX fwiw it seems to be getting better with each run which is a good sign not sure what it means though being such an experimental model and long range already for the HRRR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 Wow EWR now over 25 inches on the plumes !! Today it was 17,23,21,25+!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 JFK cigs dropped from 10 to 7,000 last hour, as soon as they get to 3000 it should start snowing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 21z SREF has over 2" liquid up to White Plains and the CT coast. The newest HRRR I saw has 18-24" snow through 22z tomorrow for much of central NJ and a good part of Long Island. 12" gets into NW NJ and about up to White Plains, then east from there into LI Sound, with still hours more snow to go in the CCB. http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/Welcome.cgi?dsKey=hrrr_jet&domain=z3&run_time=22+Jan+2016+-+22Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billgwx Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 RAP 23Z total QPF thru midday Sat is insane for NYC and Long Island! I better get in to work at 6 AM: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 RAP 23Z total QPF thru midday Sat is insane for NYC and Long Island! I better get in to work at 6 AM: RAP23Z-Sat17Z.JPG Stay safe. Thanks for the update! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 The mean SREF for KPOU is 1.43.. With a 3.8 max... There's only 1 member now that whiffs KPOU.. That's a huge jump north in short term guidance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 Some of the news outlets for NYC are still forecasting a foot of snow and why wouldn't they...that's what a lot of models are showing..around a foot maybe a bit more...only weenies follow the nam lock stock and barrell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rittenhouse Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 HRRR QPF output through 10am: NYC: 0.8" EWR: 1.1" LGA: 0.8" JFK: 0.9" HPN: 0.4" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 and why wouldn't they...that's what a lot of models are showing..around a foot maybe a bit more...only weenies follow the nam lock stock and barrell Other models besides the NAM are showing over a foot of snow now in NYC. I'd go with 12-18" in NYC-if the NAM does happen to be right, there will be spots to 2 feet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mike1984 Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 HRRR QPF output through 10am: NYC: 0.8" EWR: 1.1" LGA: 0.8" JFK: 0.9" HPN: 0.4" Do u have MMU? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tdp146 Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 RAP 23Z total QPF thru midday Sat is insane for NYC and Long Island! I better get in to work at 6 AM: RAP23Z-Sat17Z.JPG Keep up the great work. I'll be sending in my snow reports tomorrow for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDemon Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 and why wouldn't they...that's what a lot of models are showing..around a foot maybe a bit more...only weenies follow the nam lock stock and barrell Right. Only the NAM is showing the foot plus. Bye troll. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rittenhouse Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 Do u have MMU? MMU: 0.7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billgwx Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 Other models besides the NAM are showing over a foot of snow now in NYC. I'd go with 12-18" in NYC-if the NAM does happen to be right, there will be spots to 2 feet. We did Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 Through 0z, the 12z GFS has been verifying better than the 12z NAM when it comes to QPF in parts of North Carolina, Virginia, Maryland, Delaware, and Pennsylvania. The NAM has done better in Charlottesville and Richmond. The GFS has done better in Baltimore, Harrisburg, Raleigh, Roanoke, Sterling, Washington, DC and Wilmington (DE). In general, the NAM was too aggressive in boosting QPF through 0z. It's still uncertain whether this is merely a matter of timing or an overall better forecast. great post Don, certaintly interesting stuff... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 Heavy snow in PA seems to be pushing pretty far north-about to enter State College. That's good news-they correspond to roughly the 1.5" liquid line on the NAM. It signals a pretty good push north towards you later tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 We did I know-saw that. Man, I wish I was home. This is going to be one wicked storm in Long Beach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlogix Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 RAP 23Z total QPF thru midday Sat is insane for NYC and Long Island! I better get in to work at 6 AM: RAP23Z-Sat17Z.JPG WOW, what a map. Good luck getting in at 600AM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West of Town Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 By the way, I think it's great how magnanimous you are. This is the type of storm that helps bring out weather lovers for the future, and in twenty years, they'll say, "I remember when I was ten and we had that big storm!" Glad you guys are making out as well as I had anticipated yesterday. Final calls: http://easternmassweather.blogspot.com Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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