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1/23-24 Randytastic Snowstorm Part 2 STORM MODE THREAD


BxEngine

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645 pm Upton update.

Looks like increase in totals again I think late tonight. Of the models show north again

-- Changed Discussion --

SNOW IS SPREADING NEWD AT AROUND 28 KT PER RADAR TOWARDS THE

REGION FROM PA AND NJ. THIS BRINGS THE SNOW INTO THE CITY AND

NERN NJ ABOUT 9PM. DRY AIR IS IN PLACE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE

SINGLE DIGITS. MOST OF THE STEADY AND ACCUMULATING SNOW AFT

MIDNIGHT MOST AREAS BECAUSE OF THIS ATTM. WRT THE STORM

OVERALL...THE 18Z GFS DID COME IN FURTHER N...SO WILL BE

AWAITING THE 21Z SREF PLUS 00Z NAM. NEXT UPDATE MAY BE CLOSER TO

1045 PM TO ALLOW FOR A PEAK AT THE 00Z GFS.

ANALYSIS OF GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN/NAM INDICATES A FASTER ONSET OF

SNOW TONIGHT. EXPECT SNOW TO DEVELOP FROM SW TO NORTHEAST TONIGHT.

POTENT TROUGH AND SFC LOW PIVOTS EAST...WITH LOW PRESSURE

DEEPENING RAPIDLY OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT.

EXPECT SNOW ACCUMS TO RANGE FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES NEAR THE COAST TO

LITTLE ACCUMS ACROSS THE INTERIOR BY SUNRISE.

-- End Changed Discussion --

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HRRR looks fine to me? or is this not updated. The band on the last frame just offshore is insane

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/HRRRNE_CUR/rloop.html

Your right I had my setting on 3k... HRRR pivots a great band over he LHV And NYC around 1pm tomorrow... And it just sits pushing moisture off the coast till 3pm and still ripping.. NYC is almost 1.5" LE by 3pm tomorrow and still ripping.. LHV does well on the that run
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Your right I had my setting on 3k... HRRR pivots a great band over he LHV And NYC around 1pm tomorrow... And it just sits pushing moisture off the coast till 3pm and still ripping.. NYC is almost 1.5" LE by 3pm tomorrow and still ripping.. LHV does well on the that run

I think the overrunning moisture is going to have a tough time moving this far north. But when the coastal really gets going and the moisture starts to move in from the SE, we should at least see a little snow.

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I think the overrunning moisture is going to have a tough time moving this far north. But when the coastal really gets going and the moisture starts to move in from the SE, we should at least see a little snow.

You guys will really be a nowcast deal I think. You'll just have to see how far north the front end of the storm gets. Hopefully it can get past I-84 and deliver a few inches for you. 

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snows all way back to Elk Mountain, PA.

Yeah, I'm still surprised this thing shifted North so much. Granted, some on here called it, but I definitely didn't think it'd happen. This should be some of the best snow we've had in quite awhile, and luckily the heaviest will fall during the daytime for us to watch.

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Yeah, I'm still surprised this thing shifted North so much. Granted, some on here called it, but I definitely didn't think it'd happen. This should be some of the best snow we've had in quite awhile, and luckily the heaviest will fall during the daytime for us to watch.

 

I wouldn't trust the long range HRRR as gospel...

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How's this for a look at 3pm Tomorow boys and girls?... As a northern fringe guy I would kill for this to verify, this band sits and pivots for houuuuuuuurssss...

24 Hr? I thought the HRRR only went out to 15hr on wxbell. Where do you find the runs out to 24 hr I can only seem to find everything that goes out to 15 hr max no matter which run I choose. I see that's the 20Z run.

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I wouldn't trust the long range HRRR as gospel...

Nah I would never lol. It has certainly nailed events before, most being clipper systems though. Warning up now, with 8-12" forecasted totals. It's going to be more of a nowcast event, like many have already said, because the bands will set up a little different I'm sure.

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24 Hr? I thought the HRRR only went out to 15hr on wxbell. Where do you find the runs out to 24 hr I can only seem to find everything that goes out to 15 hr max no matter which run I choose. I see that's the 20Z run.

It's called he HRRRX

X stands for extended... It's an experimental, probably not to be trusted, so take with a grain of salt

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