BxEngine Posted January 22, 2016 Author Share Posted January 22, 2016 Dry air does not look like it's going to budge more than that. 6 am RAP prog to say it wont move for the next 16 hrs after that? Really? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rittenhouse Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 How does this compare to previous runs? How do u read that map? Will the white area have trouble? RAP is drier than the GFS or NAM for the northern sectors (grey areas). It just means that it's going to take longer for those areas to get snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 RAP is drier than the GFS or NAM for the northern sectors (grey areas). It just means that it's going to take longer for those areas to get snow. That's always been the case though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxWeatherwatcher Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 The RAP and HRRR are in agreement right now on not bringing much precip north of Manhattan. There could be quite the gradient within the city itself. kind of hard to agree on that thesis my friend,virga is already over spreading most of the city already.out west the precip shield is still pushing north/north eastward so i'm really not worried a.t.m. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 The RAP and HRRR are in agreement right now on not bringing much precip north of Manhattan. There could be quite the gradient within the city itself. This is not true Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rittenhouse Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 This is not true It is true thru hr 15. I didn't say for the whole storm. kind of hard to agree on that thesis my friend,virga is already over spreading most of the city already.out west the precip shield is still pushing north/north eastward so i'm really not worried a.t.m. No need to be worried. It was an observation. Too early to say what will happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SleetStormNJ Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 RAP and HRRR will be key as we get further into tonight and early tomorrow but they are currently at the far end of the envelopes in terms of their range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jason WX Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 from twitter "Have changed over to SLEET near IX park in #Charlottesville. Any sleet WILL cut down on snow totals. #vawx" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 With the low level jet screaming in moisture from the Atlantic with the eventual turn of winds to a more easterly component as the low develops don't worry about the dry air. It takes time to moisten up the atmosphere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Really like what i'm seeing so for on these trend. 500-700mb column is rapidly moistening and vectors are due north I think the HRRR is going to progressively trend bigger and bigger for NYC proper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikeeng92 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 The RAP and HRRR are in agreement right now on not bringing much precip north of Manhattan. There could be quite the gradient within the city itself. The RAP and HRRR have failed in central VA. There is sleet from CHO to RIC, the only model that came close to this is the NAM. FWIW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxWeatherwatcher Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 my dp and humidity have risen from 7f and 47% in the past hour to 51% and 12f. so basically we are already in the moisturizing phase around n.y.c.so far so gd with virga all around us now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tibet Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 The RAP and HRRR have failed in central VA. There is sleet from CHO to RIC, the only model that came close to this is the NAM. FWIW. Which run did the NAM see this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 500 already looks to have a negative tilt... Anyone else wanna confirm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jason WX Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Philly is reporting snow already...anyone think confluence is being overdone?.. I would think they would be Virga still looking at the returns Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jason WX Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 https://twitter.com/JaretGold/status/690676128932085760 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Glad you guys are making out as well as I had anticipated yesterday. Final calls: http://easternmassweather.blogspot.com Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Philly is reporting snow already...anyone think confluence is being overdone?.. I would think they would be Virga still looking at the returns Look at the COD site radar. A nice band is moving into their area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Philly is reporting snow already...anyone think confluence is being overdone?.. I would think they would be Virga still looking at the returns It's further north then that, reports of snow into princeton/ttn and monmouth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Glad you guys are making out as well as I had anticipated yesterday. Final calls: http://easternmassweather.blogspot.com Great call for us if it verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Philly is reporting snow already...anyone think confluence is being overdone?.. I would think they would be Virga still looking at the returns Snow in the north burbs of Philly via father in Doylestown, PA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Great call for us if it verifies.okx has 12-18 too... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 500 already looks to have a negative tilt... Anyone else wanna confirm? Nope still slightly positive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ScottB Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Trof is neutral-positive still Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seawind Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Fine light flurries here in Red Bank, Monmouth County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 okx has 12-18 too... Yeah but he had it yesterday and I disagreed... I know you ere on board Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 I think it is a very good sign to see that convective look to the radar that you get with a midlevel warm punch all the way up to WV, almost at DC's latitude. I did not expect that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Glad you guys are making out as well as I had anticipated yesterday. Final calls: http://easternmassweather.blogspot.com Hopefully it verifies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jason WX Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 I think it is a very good sign to see that convective look to the radar that you get with a midlevel warm punch all the way up to WV, almost at DC's latitude. I did not expect that. any pics of radar? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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