IsentropicLift Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 The HRRR really is showing the Northern edge having a hard time, although once it starts snowing I can't imagine it would stop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 I mean it's starting within 12 hr. for many of us. For the NAM to be so wrong this close in after such consistency would be pretty shocking. I'd never look at it again. Plus it's been leading the evangelist for heavier QPF Even if you lop 40% off the ridic QPF printouts, which is prudent, you take 2.5-3.0 QPF and turn it into 1.5-1.8 which verifies as 15-22" areawide. I think that's well within the realm of possibility here. And good lord, those rates it's advertising... 3-5 per given massive in flow at all levels and steep isentropic slope. In many ways the confluence to the north helps with the lift. I agree with you here and I actually think that NAM is going to be closer to right than wrong, if we take last night 00Z suite for example. But if you go back to Jan 26th 2015 the run in the afternoon (18Z) of Monday as the storm was current unfolding and it was snowing in NYC and LI already...the NAM tucked the low in the coast as it had been doing and dropped 3-4" of LE over NYC and LHV into CT. Now that was 0 HOURS and the NAM was consistently showing a major hit like that and it was dead wrong...we are still 12 hrs out or so. But I feel like this one will make up for the huge bust 2015 and all is forgiven Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 The HRRR really is showing the Northern edge having a hard time, although once it starts snowing I can't imagine it would stop. There is almost always a zone from roughly EWR to western LI where the NNE wind down the CT Valley drains down dry air and it takes forever to saturate vs areas further west and east. In this event though the winds may be NE enough that doesn't happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Watch the dew points increase Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Talk about not budging...the GFS will not cave to the other guidance. It's so aggravating, but it's been consistent. Will you whine when you get a foot? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 I agree with you here and I actually think that NAM is going to be closer to right than wrong, if we take last night 00Z suite for example. But if you go back to Jan 26th 2015 the run in the afternoon (18Z) of Monday as the storm was current unfolding and it was snowing in NYC and LI already...the NAM tucked the low in the coast as it had been doing and dropped 3-4" of LE over NYC and LHV into CT. Now that was 0 HOURS and the NAM was consistently showing a major hit like that and it was dead wrong...we are still 12 hrs out or so. But I feel like this one will make up for the huge bust 2015 and all is forgiven difference this year is that other modeling has moved towards its solution...last year there were several models with a stubborn eastern solution which turned out to be right. Not the case this go around as other guidance continually bumps north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 This is really scaring me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mulen Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 weatherfox it's mulen another transplanted whitestone resident watching from the sidelines frustrating.The mind says great the body says know to the cold .Quite the robust system hitting the east coast should break records.. We had some very rigorous rains in saint lucie county enjoy the show.see ya Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 This is really scaring me modeling shows us getting the goods later than that into tomorrow night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Talk about not budging...the GFS will not cave to the other guidance. It's so aggravating, but it's been consistent.what are you talking about? this is the best run yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swamplover56 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Yanks why is there a nose of dry air in the central part of just like a long strip that's much further south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 simulated radar is the last thing worth looking at Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 DT sounded pissed in the other forum and said in the end the Nam may end up correct. I can't tell if he's being serious or not though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 This is really scaring me Why? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 DT sounded pissed in the other forum and said in the end the Nam may end up correct. I can't tell if he's being serious or not though. The snow growth is crap down there. I didn't like the thermals for snow growth in parts of VA when I took a close look. In the end many will be disappointed because this thing isn't gonna equal 2/6/10 and I think the dry slot may screw DCA too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 The snow growth is crap down there. I didn't like the thermals for snow growth in parts of VA when I took a close look. In the end many will be disappointed because this thing isn't gonna equal 2/6/10 and I think the dry slot may screw DCA too JI warned him and in return called him a idiot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rittenhouse Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 20z HRRR is down to 983.8mb at hr 15 (vs GFS's 987mb). QPF is the same for both models for NYC but there is a sharp cutoff. Unlike the GFS, no accumulations north of the Tappan Zee and into CT By the way, HRRR maps are freely available right now at http://weather.graphics/hrrr/yhrrr.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Why? That dry air is doing damage - I have bad memories of 2009 where we had 8 hours of Virga - still ended with about 12 but was supposed to get more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 The snow growth is crap down there. I didn't like the thermals for snow growth in parts of VA when I took a close look. In the end many will be disappointed because this thing isn't gonna equal 2/6/10 and I think the dry slot may screw DCA tooagreed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Anyway in the short term Washington DC has reported moderate snow for three straight hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rittenhouse Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 The RAP and HRRR are in agreement right now on not bringing much precip north of Manhattan. There could be quite the gradient within the city itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rittenhouse Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Dry air does not look like it's going to budge more than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 what are you talking about? this is the best run yet because he was another weenie who wanted 30 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tibet Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Dry air does not look like it's going to budge more than that. How does this compare to previous runs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mike1984 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Dry air does not look like it's going to budge more than that. How do u read that map? Will the white area have trouble? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 The RAP and HRRR are in agreement right now on not bringing much precip north of Manhattan. There could be quite the gradient within the city itself. Are you serious? Is this the entire run? no snow north of that point? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 The RAP and HRRR are in agreement right now on not bringing much precip north of Manhattan. There could be quite the gradient within the city itself.By 12z Saturday, HRRR shows 2-4" fallen for much of the area. By12z Saturday on the 4km NAM, 3-5" has fallen. Not much of a difference. Same time on the GFS, 3-5" as well. HRRR looks terrific actually. Next several frames should show heavy snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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