jm1220 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Talk about not budging...the GFS will not cave to the other guidance. It's so aggravating, but it's been consistent.Its definitely caved to other guidance. It's even more north of the Euro and GGEM now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe4alb Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 000FXUS61 KOKX 222124 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 424 PM EST FRI JAN 22 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A NOR`EASTER WILL IMPACT THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS IN SUNDAY AND REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT MOVES ACROSS EARLY TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... ANALYSIS OF GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN/NAM INDICATES A FASTER ONSET OF SNOW TONIGHT. EXPECT SNOW TO DEVELOP FROM SW TO NORTHEAST TONIGHT. POTENT TROUGH AND SFC LOW PIVOTS EAST...WITH LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING RAPIDLY OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT. EXPECT SNOW ACCUMS TO RANGE FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES NEAR THE COAST TO LITTLE ACCUMS ACROSS THE INTERIOR BY SUNRISE. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... SNOW AMOUNTS IN GENERAL WILL BE RAISED...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. COLLAB WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES AND HPC. NAM CLOSED AND WRAPPED UP WHEREAS GFS/ECMWF MUCH MORE ELONGATED WITH PIVOTING UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW. DEEP LOW PRESSURE NEARS THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK...AND FORECAST ALL DEPENDS ON BANDING/FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AND PLACEMENT. NAM QUITE AGGRESSIVE IN PLACING HEAVY SNOW BAND/MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS ACROSS THE AREA EAST TO WEST...AND IT IS REFLECTED IN IT/S QPF. VERY GOOD QPF AGREEMENT WITH ECMWF/GFS/CANADIAN AND VARIOUS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FOR A GENERAL 1 TO 1 1/2 INCH AMOUNT NEAR THE COAST...TO AS LITTLE AS A QUARTER OF AN INCH ACROSS THE INTERIOR...PARTICULARLY NW ZONES. WILL MAINTAIN BLIZZARD WARNING ALONG THE COAST. VERY STRONG WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS 40 TO 50 MPH WILL RESULT IN POOR VSBYS IN HEAVY SNOW/BLOWING SNOW. FURTHER TO THE NORTH...CONFIDENCE NOT QUITE HIGH ENOUGH FOR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS...BUT UPGRADED WATCHES TO WARNINGS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...EXCEPT ADVISORIES INTERIOR SW CT...AND MAINTAINED WATCH FOR ORANGE AND PUTNAM COUNTIES. THIS DUE TO MUCH UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME FURTHER NW. A SLIGHT OSCILLATION OF QPF SHIELD NORTH OR SOUTH MAKES ALL THE DIFFERENCE...BUT FOR CONSISTENCY...WENT WITH WINTER WX ADV FOR INTERIOR CT...EXCEPT NEW LONDON AND CSTL ZONES. SNOW WILL END LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE STORM PULLS AWAY. TEMPS QUITE COLD PER MOS BLEND. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 You can toss the GFS QPF totals. Like I said, if you're within the 1"+ mark you're good. After that it will depend on local jackpots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dhaulagiri1 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 As long as you're within the blue contour you're golden. Nobody knows what the actual amounts are going to be because of mesoscale banding. Use the higher res models and short terms for that. Seems 18z GFS is not following NAM/SREFS etc, less QPF for the City and weaker storm overall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarrenCtyWx Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 I was not anticipating that north trend. Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Mid morning tomorrow looks to be the worst of the winds. GFS has over 50 knot winds on the Jersey Shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Are we still going to do the model thing now that the storm is occurring. If we have to use models then let's use the very short term ones. That would be a bad idea. The Globals are still very good in the short term. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Seems 18z GFS is not following NAM/SREFS etc, less QPF for the City and weaker storm overall GFS is often lighter on precip totals--as IL said, use the meso's for local jackpots, banding etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Seems 18z GFS is not following NAM/SREFS etc, less QPF for the City and weaker storm overall 18z GFS has more QPF than 12z. 12z had 1.18". 18z had 1.32". FWIW, the 1/22 0z run was all the way down to 0.56". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Forky, 18z GFS has 1.5" QPF for all of union county !. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dhaulagiri1 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 18z GFS has more QPF than 12z. 12z had 1.18". 18z had 1.32". Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Seems 18z GFS is not following NAM/SREFS etc, less QPF for the City and weaker storm overallYou're being a QPF Queen. Nonsense, the ULL is stronger and larger so the precip is less compressed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 can we start a obs thread? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 How are the short range models sim radar looking? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 can we start a obs thread? There already is one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 It's much better than the Euro for NW areas. Absolutely. POU was 0.20" on the Euro and 0.60" on the 18z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rittenhouse Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 The GFS also aligns pretty well with the HRRR thru hr 15. The low is slightly stronger, but not much difference in accumulations. 2-3" by daybreak tomorrow for KNYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 18z GFS has more QPF than 12z. 12z had 1.18". 18z had 1.32". I see this coming down to where the mesoscale snow bands set up and persist for the heaviest snowfall accumulations . Wow!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 There already is one where? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Talk about not budging...the GFS will not cave to the other guidance. It's so aggravating, but it's been consistent. If your eyes are just pinned to NYC maybe but if you look at the system as a whole and the northern edge of the precip shield...it took a substantial jump north for inside of 36 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 where? It isn't pinned yet thats why you gotta scroll down a little Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Each time I think it's over up here, something throws a curve ball... Seeing KPOU at .60" keeps hopes alive here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Ok guys. Everything looks awesome except for all the banter Banter in the banter thread. Obs/pics in the obs thead. Storm discussion in here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 I agree. The other offices e.g., Mount Holly had a similar image. That image no longer exists and the designated webpage updates. Hopefully, the issue will be resolved so that the linked page updates as soon as the information has changed. Actually, I wish I knew how to copy/paste those snowfall maps into other places (another board I post on) and have them be static, so the graphic didn't automatically change when the source webpage was updated. I find that annoying - don't think it happens here for some reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dhaulagiri1 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 You're being a QPF Queen. Nonsense, the ULL is stronger and larger so the precip is less compressed. Yeah, I am, I'm not used to being spoiled by so many NAM runs, not 1 or 3 but 8 in a row! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Maybe, I have not seen, since the volume of posts, but in the past with these major snow storms they sometimes have a clap of thunder and a flash of lightning if the proper dynamics (instability) are there. Thunder snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Most likely the green is the only QPF hitting the ground, especially with that right gradient Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Most likely the green is the only QPF hitting the ground, especially with that right gradient That's a given. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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