JohnnyDop Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 I have a bookmark. The webpage has changed, but it seems the bookmarked image updates more quickly. Understood, very frustrating the page where it should be (http://www.weather.gov/okx/winter) isnt updating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Bernie says no way NYC sees more than a foot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Bernie says no way NYC sees more than a foot vendor thread please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 The ULL is significantly stronger and further NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Understood, very frustrating the page where it should be (http://www.weather.gov/okx/winter) isnt updating. On the OKX website, hover your mouse over the "Forecasts" tab and the click the "Storm Total Forecasts" and you should be able to access the map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Moderate to Heavy snow up to I-80 by 06z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jenkins Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Bernie says no way NYC sees more than a foot You didn't include the context. He said if the GFS is correct with it's weakening H5 low moving E to ESE, then NYC doesn't get more than a foot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 This is way NW, the good snows make it back to High Point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 gfs looks a lot like the 12z euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Heavy snow up to I-84 and then West towards Port Jervis. That's your cutoff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 gfs looks a lot like the 12z euro It's much better than the Euro for NW areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Understood, very frustrating the page where it should be (http://www.weather.gov/okx/winter) isnt updating. I agree. The other offices e.g., Mount Holly had a similar image. That image no longer exists and the designated webpage updates. Hopefully, the issue will be resolved so that the linked page updates as soon as the information has changed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Very NAM like, just not as robust with the ridiculous QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 You didn't include the context. He said if the GFS is correct with it's weakening H5 low moving E to ESE, then NYC doesn't get more than a foot. i was going to post what he actually fully said.. it seems some posters here try to pick snippets for there arguments to try and downplay the enthusiasm many will feel about the snow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 The 500mb low almost makes it to the Chesapeake. On the 18z run yesterday it went due East from OBX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Very NAM like, just not as robust with the ridiculous QPF Its a convection question. GFS is still seeing intense GS-fueled convection offshore that robs the CCB of moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Good deformation banding lasts well into Saturday evening like the rest of the guidance shows. Like I said, massive cut off once North of a line that runs from Port Jervis to about the Beacon bridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swamplover56 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 That's a beautiful run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Its a convection question. GFS is still seeing intense GS-fueled convection offshore that robs the CCB of moisture. weird...that blob is 4 inches of rain out there in 3 hours...if it's not real then game really on! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Its a convection question. GFS is still seeing intense GS-fueled convection offshore that robs the CCB of moisture. That's not at all what's happening. The 500mb low tracks right towards it. That's just the storm departing. I don't think the models should be painting a low pressure there by the QPF bullseye makes sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jenkins Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Good deformation banding lasts well into Saturday evening like the rest of the guidance shows. Like I said, massive cut off once North of a line that runs from Port Jervis to about the Beacon bridge. You guys are looking pretty damn good. Coastal RI might be able to cash in as well. Can you do an 18z v 12z comparison for total QPF output? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 That's not at all what's happening. The 500mb low tracks right towards it. That's just the storm departing. I don't think the models should be painting a low pressure there by the QPF bullseye makes sense. Disagree. Look at the GFS precip depiction against an East Coast SST map side-by-side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 VS 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jasperk99 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 How does the Kuchera Ratio compute snow totals as opposed to the 10:1? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Good deformation banding lasts well into Saturday evening like the rest of the guidance shows. Like I said, massive cut off once North of a line that runs from Port Jervis to about the Beacon bridge. Much better for our Northern friends... I may tell my Dad up in Ridgefield, Ct. not to sleep on 8-12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 As long as you're within the blue contour you're golden. Nobody knows what the actual amounts are going to be because of mesoscale banding. Use the higher res models and short terms for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCGreg Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Talk about not budging...the GFS will not cave to the other guidance. It's so aggravating, but it's been consistent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 GFS still seems to be a little stingy on QPF as a whole. Maybe a blend of the GFS and NAM are the way to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Are we still going to do the model thing now that the storm is occurring. If we have to use models then let's use the very short term ones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Current run vs 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.