LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 For comparison. Moisture fed is further east out of the carribean this time. Right out of the highest highest heat content waters in the Atlantic right where Wilma went ballistic. Loooooots of moisture to play with Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Plenty of monstrous hits on EPS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 I mean it's starting within 12 hr. for many of us. For the NAM to be so wrong this close in after such consistency would be pretty shocking. I'd never look at it again. Plus it's been leading the evangelist for heavier QPF Even if you lop 40% off the ridic QPF printouts, which is prudent, you take 2.5-3.0 QPF and turn it into 1.5-1.8 which verifies as 15-22" areawide. I think that's well within the realm of possibility here. And good lord, those rates it's advertising... 3-5 per given massive in flow at all levels and steep isentropic slope. In many ways the confluence to the north helps with the lift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 I mean it's starting within 12 hr. for many of us. For the NAM to be so wrong this close in after such consistency would be pretty shocking. I'd never look at it again. Plus it's been leading the evangelist for heavier QPF Even if you lop 40% off the ridic QPF printouts, which is prudent, you take 2.5-3.0 QPF and turn it into 1.5-1.8 which verifies as 15-22" areawide. I think that's well within the realm of possibility here. And good lord, those rates it's advertising... 3-5 per given massive in flow at all levels and steep isentropic slope. In many ways the confluence to the north helps with the lift. i posted about subsidence helping us in sne. i really think 12" is going to be the floor of this event for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 I mean it's starting within 12 hr. for many of us. For the NAM to be so wrong this close in after such consistency would be pretty shocking. I'd never look at it again. Plus it's been leading the evangelist for heavier QPF Even if you lop 40% off the ridic QPF printouts, which is prudent, you take 2.5-3.0 QPF and turn it into 1.5-1.8 which verifies as 15-22" areawide. I think that's well within the realm of possibility here. And good lord, those rates it's advertising... 3-5 per given massive in flow at all levels and steep isentropic slope. In many ways the confluence to the north helps with the lift. Very good point. That's exactly what we had with the mega band offshore 2/10 if it had been 30 miles north the south shore would have done 20" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Yes, as long as temps remain below freezing which they are forecasted and the snow comes I could see two feet drifts. ...i always worry about c/o scenerios..us east enders are always on the edge..but looking @ all "future casts" seems rain/snow line is pretty far S and E.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 i posted about subsidence helping us in sne. i really think 12" is going to be the floor of this event for usWow. Forky is all in. Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N910A using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYStorm Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 I mean it's starting within 12 hr. for many of us. For the NAM to be so wrong this close in after such consistency would be pretty shocking. I'd never look at it again. Plus it's been leading the evangelist for heavier QPF Even if you lop 40% off the ridic QPF printouts, which is prudent, you take 2.5-3.0 QPF and turn it into 1.5-1.8 which verifies as 15-22" areawide. I think that's well within the realm of possibility here. And good lord, those rates it's advertising... 3-5 per given massive in flow at all levels and steep isentropic slope. In many ways the confluence to the north helps with the lift. You're a met, right? I'm not. You tell me ... has the NAM ever been counted as an outlier, or completely thrown out, or just blended in with other models to create the forecast? It seems to me (and I'm not a met and maybe my memory just isn't perfect) that the NAM is always extreme with QPF. We will find out soon enough. But what are your historical observations on the NAM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 12-18 now from Upton for NYC area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 The 12z EPS looks like a huge hit. Just using my untrained eye I think it's 12"+ for everyone outside of Ulster and Northern Orange. I think that is probably the BEST news of the day!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snoflaker Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Alert issued on 1/22/16 at 3:30 PM. Mayor De Blasio has declared a Winter Weather Emergency as of 8:00AM Saturday, January 23, 2016. New York City is expecting 12-18 inches of snow, with sustained winds of 25 to 30mph with gusts up to 50 MPH. These weather conditions will create dangerous travel conditions including slippery roads and limited visibilities. New Yorkers are strongly advised to stay off the roads except in the event of an emergency. If you must travel, use mass transit. The sender provided the following contact information. Sender's Name: Notify NYC Sender's Email: [email protected] Sender's Contact Phone: (212) 639-9675 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tdp146 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Alert issued on 1/22/16 at 3:30 PM. Mayor De Blasio has declared a Winter Weather Emergency as of 8:00AM Saturday, January 23, 2016. New York City is expecting 12-18 inches of snow, with sustained winds of 25 to 30mph with gusts up to 50 MPH. These weather conditions will create dangerous travel conditions including slippery roads and limited visibilities. New Yorkers are strongly advised to stay off the roads except in the event of an emergency. If you must travel, use mass transit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 hell that might be even low. lets see what the gfs does. great call for now though. 12-18 now from Upton for NYC area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seth.P Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 12-18 now from Upton for NYC area I only see 10 inches from Upton, where can I see this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 You're a met, right? I'm not. You tell me ... has the NAM ever been counted as an outlier, or completely thrown out, or just blended in with other models to create the forecast? It seems to me (and I'm not a met and maybe my memory just isn't perfect) that the NAM is always extreme with QPF. We will find out soon enough. But what are your historical observations on the NAM? It is usually overdone, sometimes grossly overdone. I usually trim off 40% of the NAM's QPF output... But it isn't worthless, especially inside 36-48. Has more than once led the way on specific aspects of storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rittenhouse Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 High-res NAM exactly matches HRRR out to hr 15. 2-3 inches for KNYC by daybreak tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikemost Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 RGEM is north of 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe4alb Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 I only see 10 inches from Upton, where can I see this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 I only see 10 inches from Upton, where can I see this? It just updated Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seth.P Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Bingo, thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikemost Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tibet Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 High-res NAM exactly matches HRRR out to hr 15. 2-3 inches for KNYC by daybreak tomorrow. http://imgur.com/a/GC3AP for those who want to compare Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikemost Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNash Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 High-res NAM exactly matches HRRR out to hr 15. 2-3 inches for KNYC by daybreak tomorrow. HRRR has been very accurate on development of this event so far. Things seem to be breaking towards the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 i posted about subsidence helping us in sne. i really think 12" is going to be the floor of this event for us What's the ceiling? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 i posted about subsidence helping us in sne. i really think 12" is going to be the floor of this event I hope not - I am in Coastal Fairfield County - That happened to us in the 02/10 snowstorm and only ended up with 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Looks like Nassau county is going to come in right around last January Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe4alb Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 still radio silence from NWS. I can't wait to read the AFD. Their heads must be spinning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYStorm Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 It is usually overdone, sometimes grossly overdone. I usually trim off 40% of the NAM's QPF output... But it isn't worthless, especially inside 36-48. Has more than once led the way on specific aspects of storms. Understood. But the way everyone here is posting, one would think that they expect the NAM QPF to verify. To factor in other aspects? Sure, that may make sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.