BL03 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 NAM has a solid 12 hrs of mod - very heavy snow over NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 NAM really is not backing down one bit here. I'd think it would collapse by now if it was out to lunch. NYC would have as severe an overall impact from this as DC if this verified. Maybe even worse from any coastal flood impact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Still snowing moderately well into tomorrow night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
christhesnowman Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 NWS will update totals after the 18z gfs comes out certainly for the nyc metro area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 IIRC NAM backed off a little at 18z last year. Am I correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Parts of my town flooded with the last storm, which will be nowhere near as intense as this one. It won't be anything like Sandy, but in an extreme scenario I could see this resembling Dec 1992. I said yesterday something a little less the 92. More like Irene, Gloria, 93 and 91 Pretty bad. Most roads underwater some structure flooding Down by AC even worse there it could be top 3 all time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 The 4k NAM is also a huge hit. Historic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 The weenie maps have almost the whole area in the 30" range. Intellicast radar of approaching snow line (time sensitive). Air very dry and will take a bit of time to moisten up. http://www.intellicast.com/National/Radar/Current.aspx?region=bgm&animate=true Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MegaMike Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 I'm hearing reports on Twitter ( a pretty respectful Met in philly) that reports around the area (not philly itself) is that Virga is surprisingly not occurring despite low dew points? Can someone with a little more knowledge explain.. Why this would be the case.. And if it shows that the confluence may be weaker? Could be related to cloud microphysics. Chemical CCNs with high affinities for water can last longer in the atmosphere than dirt, clay, etc CCNs (with minimal evaporation). Could be related to density of CCNs as well. This would be localized if this were the case, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sn0w Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 The 4k NAM is also a huge hit. Historic. How's the Northern edge on the 4k? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 I think people should start taking the Nam seriously Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 The end of the storm still hasn't arrived and I'm to 36hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxWeatherwatcher Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 paul kocin must be in heaven right now,the sheer force of this beast is unreal.combine above average sst's the stj and the combo of pac,gulf and atlantic moisture with a extreme baroclinic zone right at the coast,and some cold air and a once in a lifetime storm is born for most in here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 What's becoming clear is that what will make or break this storm from really taking off past 10" around NYC will be if the tucked in low can hang on with its dynamics vs whatever forms well east. The GFS kills off the close in low and takes the dynamics with it, which weakens the CCB and delivers much less precip than the NAM. The same process also keeps it further south overall. NYC is locked in for probably a foot, but if the tucked in low stays around longer like the NAM, there could be 20"+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 The 500mb low basically ends up where that secondary surface low was forming. So I wonder if that's what's been trying to take place this entire time and it's taken this long for models to catch up. Of course, the NAM could be completely out to lunch, but talk about consistency. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 NAM snow maps anyone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 What would be drift potential over Long island with near storm force winds? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 What's becoming clear is that what will make or break this storm from really taking off past 10" around NYC will be if the tucked in low can hang on with its dynamics vs whatever forms well east. The GFS kills off the close in low and takes the dynamics with it, which weakens the CCB and delivers much less precip than the NAM. The same process also keeps it further south overall. NYC is locked in for probably a foot, but if the tucked in low stays around longer like the NAM, there could be 20"+. Bernie Rayno said that it's not the case of the second low taking over but because the dry air push coming in on the GFS is much stronger than the NAM which in turn weakens the ULL and pushes it East. The NAM keeps everything in tact longer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 The snow finally wraps up around 03z Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe4alb Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 This is only through 21z saturday... still hours and hours left Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Man, it's impossible not to enjoy the NAM runs, even when you realize how wildly unrealistic they are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeS Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 4KM NAM crushes the entire area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monmouth_County_Jacpot Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 No one talking drift potential what would it be??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 The 12z EPS looks like a huge hit. Just using my untrained eye I think it's 12"+ for everyone outside of Ulster and Northern Orange. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 4k NAM totals. Sooner or later all those that always dismiss the NAM as out to lunch and say how it can't possibly be correct are going to have egg on their face. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BL03 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 March north young one.......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 For comparison. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 You can't deny these models anymore, the storm is happening now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 No one talking drift potential what would it be??? Yes, as long as temps remain below freezing which they are forecasted and the snow comes I could see two feet drifts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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