UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Looks like the 18Z RPM is going to come in as another huge hit for the City and coastal CT. A bit faster and stronger with the surface low. Can u post when done plz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poleshiftnow Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Srefs are a joke. If I remember right they did a good job last year in that epic bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 In what way? As a model or in what they're saying? Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Theyre way too far north. This is a thing for them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 What times do the RPM models come out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 I wonddr if Upton is going to raise snowtotals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 I'd imagine that the NWS OKX is going to convert those watches to warnings at least for the southern 1/2 of the counties the northern portion might just be advisories. Gonna cut it really close with the 12Z guidance. NYC has been under a blizzard warning since 7AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dhaulagiri1 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 If I remember right they did a good job last year in that epic bust. Yes, I remember the SREFS drop, drop, droping amounts with each run last Jan; and I said the same thing then that we're saying today "SREFS suck, couldn't forecast their way out of a paper bag" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Theyre way too far north. This is a thing for them. Even so, I would rather have them where they are. If they had made a sudden shift Southeast it would raise a flag. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 I wonddr if Upton is going to raise snowtotals Wondering the same for Mt. Holly. I know Mt. Holly said they might make changes after the 12z model suite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 NYC has been under a blizzard warning since 7AM. He is referring to the watches in Northern Westchester, Orange, Putnam and into CT.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 HRRR looks to me like it wants to take the surface low and head almost due west maybe a bit NW, starts to pivot and banding really sets in over NYC and jersey between 2-3am, can anyone else confirm or am I nuts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 He is referring to the watches in Northern Westchester, Orange, Putnam and into CT.... Sometimes people that live in the city forget that the world exists outside of the five boroughs. It's getting pretty late in the game for warnings to be issued. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Circulation on Wilmington, NC http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=NCR&rid=ltx&loop=yes Is that in line with the modeling? I thought GFS had genesis down around Charleston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Yes, I remember the SREFS drop, drop, droping amounts with each run last Jan; and I said the same thing then that we're saying today "SREFS suck, couldn't forecast their way out of a paper bag" SREFS have been updated since and have done very well with minor events, and rain since Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Hi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 NYC has been under a blizzard warning since 7AM. I didn't say NYC I meant the watches that were currently up for LHV and CT under OKXs control. The southern 1/2 of those counties to be converted to warnings and northern 1/2 to advisories. Can u post when done plz yes. What times do the RPM models come out? It runs every 3 hours. As soon as a run is finished to 72 hours the next one starts almost right away. 18Z running now...21Z is next. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Here is the updated 12z ARW totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 I'd probably go 12-18" at this point for the city, points west and Long Island too. Trends so far have all been positive. Isolated 20" where bands can sit around. I think the widespread 20"+ will still be southwest of you, but we'll see how things shape up overnight. Maybe I-84 can catch 3-5" if a band gets lucky enough to reach that far, but it's still looking like a sharp gradient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 I didn't say NYC I meant the watches that were currently up for LHV and CT under OKXs control. The southern 1/2 of those counties to be converted to warnings and northern 1/2 to advisories. yes. It runs every 3 hours. As soon as a run is finished to 72 hours the next one starts almost right away. 18Z running now...21Z is next. Na I am pretty sure that at least Rockland and Northern Westchester and parts of southern CT will be changed to a warning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dhaulagiri1 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 so 8 hours till go time...we really think we should throw out all the meso models? because every one of them is painting a wildly different storm from the globals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 I'd probably go 12-18" at this point for the city, points west and Long Island too. Trends so far have all been positive. Isolated 20" where bands can sit around. I think the widespread 20"+ will still be southwest of you, but we'll see how things shape up overnight. Maybe I-84 can catch 3-5" if a band gets lucky enough to reach that far, but it's still looking like a sharp gradient. hey so you feeling my thinking of 6-12 along the 287 corridor in NY is a good call at this point?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 What does the CRAS show? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 What does the CRAS show? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rittenhouse Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Majority of ensemble members over 2 feet now for KLGA. Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Can anyone give a brief description on how the models looked running up to the event and right at go time for 2/6/10 and 2/9/10 and how it compares to this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 What does the CRAS I literally cannot think of a single model worse than the CRAS. You are better off the BRAMS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Not sure I buy the ridic numbers but I remember the ARW and NMM nailing banding during the 1/12/11 Noreaster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 1/21 12z Suite QPF Summary NYC / NJ (i78 - i-195) SREF: 1.50 - 2.20 NAM: 2.95 -3.15 GFS: 1.15 - 2.00 RGEM: 0.55 - 1.40 GEFS: 1.15 - 2.05 GGEM: 1.20 - 2.05 GGEM Ensembles: 1.15 - 2.05 UKMET: 0.80 - 2.15 ECM: 1.15 - 2.150 Love this feature you do, thanks! I modify it a little (I convert to snow in inches at 10:1 and I usually take out the ensembles, as I try to simplify things for non-enthusiasts) and use it in my weather emails and posts on non-weather boards/FB, where I've somehow become a weather source for many. As I said the other day, I wish we had a pinned thread for just this - actually it would be cool to be able to go to one source for a spreadsheet with QPF/snowfall ranges for each model in each suite and for that spreadsheet to have clickable links to the snowfall/precip maps for each model run. Maybe when I retire, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 I can't believe the CRAS actually show a realistic depiction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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