donsutherland1 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Could totally see this happening. During the "heart of the event," that's certainly possible. But before the true blizzard conditions or near blizzard conditions set in, the ratios could well be higher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 And keep in mind 1/1996 is influenced by the brief mix. Yes. That's correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 I don't see the snow being that wet for most of us, not saying ratios will be particularly great but usually 28 degree snows are pretty powdery. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe4alb Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 We mixed for several hours here during 96 and even dry slotted for a while. So the ratios will definitely fluctuate during the storm. Probably averaging 10:1 but 8 - 12:1 can happen at any point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Expected with-in 48 hours of a storm. I expect far less from the NAM consistently so when you see that sort of consistency its a welcome sight. Bottom line, though it will likely be far from correct on QPF it was still an impressive performance of understanding that the confluence was weaker than being progged by the big boys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 12Z Euro has 15" for the South Shore of Nassau around Long Beach with peak sustained winds 15-18z of 39 mph with gusts to 58 mph. Pretty damn close to what we had with Boxing Day. Just a couple more inches of snow. The drifting in between the buildings was just epic. 8' in places. This is looking more and more like one of the big boys. Also, coastal flooding and snow creates some cool icebergs. Saw that during 3/93 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 If there is a mix anywhere near the coast that's a sign that the mid-level centers are tucked right in, and you're probably going to briefly dry slot before the deformation banding takes over after 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 12z on the latest HRRR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rittenhouse Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 I know it's early, but the HRRR is starting to hint where the main band might set up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Circulation on Wilmington, NC http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=NCR&rid=ltx&loop=yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe4alb Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 our little boy is getting so big.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 our little boy is getting so big.... I am not so good with mesoscale data.... I see that shows the LOW circulation center, but what does it all mean?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 12 to 18 for nyc and ewr. Lack of dryslot, and mid level def (good snowgrowth is above 700) makes up for the rip and read qpf amounts near the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 HRRR really looks to wanna bring the Low north, precip is funneling back in off the Atlantic due NW...city's gonna get crushed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe4alb Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 I am not so good with mesoscale data.... I see that shows the LOW circulation center, but what does it all mean?? solid lines indicate positive frontogenesis which is an indication of a strengthening system, basically temp differentiation increasing with time. more packed together, greater the increase Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 As per HRRR it should be snowing by 10pm, I would expect 11-12 sounds more accurate to allow for saturation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mulen Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 wam, bam, thankyou nam LOL man i'm envious she's fired up,ma nature gonna rip up the place stay safe.see ya Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 The SREF look great Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 As per HRRR it should be snowing by 10am, I would expect 11-12 sounds more accurate to allow for saturation Don't you mean 10pm ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxWeatherwatcher Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 HRRR really looks to wanna bring the Low north, precip is funneling back in off the Atlantic due NW...city's gonna get crushed so the city might have a rare all around the circle snowfall,which means snow coming in from the southwest,southeast,northeast and then northwest.usually that would equate is a crush job in and around the area of the pivot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 wam, bam, thankyou nam LOL man i'm envious she's fired up,ma nature gonna rip up the place stay safe.see ya Mulen. ..! Miss ya pal! I said I missed your one liners yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SHELEG Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 You Mean start @ 10: PM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Pretty damn close to what we had with Boxing Day. Just a couple more inches of snow. The drifting in between the buildings was just epic. 8' in places. This is looking more and more like one of the big boys. Also, coastal flooding and snow creates some cool icebergs. Saw that during 3/93 Yeah, the last time the GFS MOS winds at JFK went over 30 KT sustained during snow was Boxing Day. Going to be tough to measure since there will be so much drifting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Srefs are a joke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 I just want to point out that the real first signal we had last year in the bust of the century, was that the HRRR wanted no part in it. I remember it to this day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Don't you mean 10pm ? Yessir, my bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 I just want to point out that the real first signal we had last year in the bust of the century, was that the HRRR wanted no part in it. I remember it to this day. How does the HRRRRR look now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Looks like the 18Z RPM is going to come in as another huge hit for the City and coastal CT. A bit faster and stronger with the surface low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Srefs are a joke. In what way? As a model or in what they're saying? Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 I'd imagine that the NWS OKX is going to convert those watches to warnings at least for the southern 1/2 of the counties the northern portion might just be advisories. Gonna cut it really close with the 12Z guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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