Snowlover11 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 As per the Senate webcam, the first flakes of snow are now falling on Capitol Hill.yup per earthcam flakes are flying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 HRRR indicates earlier arrival Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEXtreme Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Wish we would see 15:1. Most likely no where near the coast. Wind is going to completely eat at any growth. Not only that but temps wont help either. 8/10:1. Higher ratios on backside. Wouldn't shock me if temps are colder then modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Wish we would see 15:1. Most likely no where near the coast. Wind is going to completely eat at any growth. Not only that but temps wont help either. 8/10:1. Higher ratios on backside. 8:1? Just because of wind (i.e. with decent snow growth)? Come, now. What's your historical storm to support that one? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Some Long Island QPF figures (12z ECMWF): FOK: 1.05" FRG: 1.28" HWV: 1.14" ISP: 1.18" MTP: 0.84" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 1/21 12z Suite QPF Summary NYC / NJ (i78 - i-195) SREF: 1.50 - 2.20 NAM: 2.95 -3.15 GFS: 1.15 - 2.00 RGEM: 0.55 - 1.40 GEFS: 1.15 - 2.05 GGEM: 1.20 - 2.05 GGEM Ensembles: 1.15 - 2.05 UKMET: 0.80 - 2.15 ECM: 1.15 - 2.150 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 8:1? Just because of wind (i.e. with decent snow growth)? Come, now. What's your historical storm to support that one? At the very least it would be 10:1 everywhere... you probably have to be away from the coast to see anything higher. Then on the backend the ratios will go up to maybe 13:1-15:1 at the very most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 I think nyc is in a good deformation band spot. Central jersey flirts with dryslot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LIsnowBubble Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Some Long Island QPF figures (12z ECMWF): FOK: 1.05" FRG: 1.28" HWV: 1.14" ISP: 1.18" MTP: 0.84" .... thx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 we had greater than 10:1 ratios from boxing day and that was a legit blizzard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 That is a great forecast map... Question: what is the pink dash line? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 1/21 12z Suite QPF Summary NYC / NJ (i78 - i-195) SREF: 1.50 - 2.20 NAM: 2.95 -3.15 GFS: 1.15 - 2.00 RGEM: 0.55 - 1.40 GEFS: 1.15 - 2.05 GGEM: 1.20 - 2.05 GGEM Ensembles: 1.15 - 2.05 UKMET: 0.80 - 2.15 ECM: 1.15 - 2.150 Could you do I-80-I-95? Realize a lot of work... but many people (including a lot in NYC itself) live N of 78. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HailMan06 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 That is a great forecast map... Question: what is the pink dash line?The mix line. Look at the purple text. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 That is a great forecast map... Question: what is the pink dash line? Possible mix area. May be a little aggressive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Not sure if other see this, but a lot of your images show up as garbled .jpg links Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Some text numbers from the 12z GFS MMU - 16.3" on 1.11"LE LGA - 17.1" on 1.13"LE HPN - 12.7" on 0.79"LE ISP - 14.2" on 1.02"LE EWR - 19.0" on 1.28"LE SWF - 1.40" on 0.12"LE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Not sure if other see this, but a lot of your images show up as garbled .jpg linksThat's strange. Haven't heard of that before Sent from my SM-G925V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 we had greater than 10:1 ratios from boxing day and that was a legit blizzard Some stations that stayed all snow in 1993 had greater than 10:1 ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted January 22, 2016 Author Share Posted January 22, 2016 Looks fine from here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 The mix line. Look at the purple text. Thanks... definitely missed that text to the side Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Keith O Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 This looks very reasonable for sure, excellent forecast at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ScottB Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 8:1? Just because of wind (i.e. with decent snow growth)? Come, now. What's your historical storm to support that one? Could totally see this happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Link to CIMSS sat http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/geo-new/#/animation?satellite=goes-east&end_datetime=latest&n_images=12&coverage=conus&channel=03&image_quality=gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 8:1? Just because of wind (i.e. with decent snow growth)? Come, now. What's your historical storm to support that one? I agree with you that the ratio would probably be higher than 8:1. The ratios were as follows for some recent storms that verified blizzard conditions in parts of the OKX area: 2/1978: 15.7:1 2/1983: 11.8:1 1/1996: 9.4:1 1/2005: 11.7:1 12/2010: 12.4:1 Mean: 11.8:1 Median: 11.7:1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Could totally see this happening. Perhaps, but its a figment of someone's imagination. Historical blizzards had10:1 ratios and better as long as the snow wasn't wet. Obviously if we mix or our snow growth is otherwise impeded, that's a different story. But wind generally does NOT kill dendrites as much as you might think. On some level you already know this - think of those LES storms with howling NW winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 I agree with you that the ratio would probably be higher than 8:1. The ratios were as follows for some recent storms that verified blizzard conditions in parts of the OKX area: 2/1978: 15.7:1 2/1983: 11.8:1 1/1996: 9.4:1 1/2005: 11.7:1 12/2010: 12.4:1 Mean: 11.8:1 Median: 11.7:1 And keep in mind 1/1996 is influenced by the brief mix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 reports of snow flying across pa already. Seven Springs,PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 12Z Euro has 15" for the South Shore of Nassau around Long Beach with peak sustained winds 15-18z of 39 mph with gusts to 58 mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ScottB Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Perhaps, but its a figment of someone's imagination. Historical blizzards had10:1 ratios and better as long as the snow wasn't wet. Obviously if we mix or our snow growth is otherwise impeded, that's a different story. But wind generally does NOT kill dendrites as much as you might think. On some level you already know this - think of those LES storms with howling NW winds. Oh absolutely - im not saying the wind is the only contributing factor, nor am I saying that 8:1 will be anywhere near the mean throughout the storm. But its certainly plausible that we see more closer to 10:1 than anything... just not 15:1 throughout the storm (anywhere near the coast). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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