UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 NAM is still drastically different than the euro... Yes the euro brings heavier precip into the city and points south, but the track over has not changed... NAM has a totally different look in terms on track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Lets all take bow of respect to the new king!!! the NAM :D. Blown away that the models are catching up to the NAM. Obviously no one expects a Nam solution QPF wise but the NAm NEVER wavered!!! Expected with-in 48 hours of a storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 that update was many hours ago time for a new update this afternoon i would think Their latest discussion was at 1256 pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 I am really confident in saying this takes one more bump North. The 6"+ line I feel makes it to I-84 with a very fast drop off North of there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Their latest discussion was at 1256 pm .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/... -- Changed Discussion -- ONGOING ANALYSIS OF LATEST MODEL DATA AT THIS TIME. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Brooklyn is really close to the 2 inch QPF. Little north please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 The ECMWF was ever so slightly more generous on the northern extent of the snow. HPN: 0.75" vs. 0z figure of 0.72" NYC: 1.12" vs. 0z figure of 1.08" POU: 0.20" vs. 0z figure of 0.15" In most areas, both the 12z ECMWF and 12z GFS are in good agreement. There are some large differences in Philadelphia and Boston (>33.3% of the average of the two models). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 NAM is still drastically different than the euro... Yes the euro brings heavier precip into the city and points south, but the track over has not changed... NAM has a totally different look in terms on track It actually cut back slightly on CT coast. Still could be off by 15 miles either direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 While a great hit of 8-12" for most of us, the euro is still much, much different than the NAM. So no "NAM victory dances" yet!! It does look like it is becoming increasingly likely that we don't get shafted though, which is awesome. I still like a 10-15" call.....someone in SE PA east through SNJ I think will have a second jackpot of 25" or so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 End of the latest RAP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 The ECMWF was ever so slightly more generous on the northern extent of the snow. HPN: 0.75" vs. 0z figure of 0.72" NYC: 1.12" vs. 0z figure of 1.08" POU: 0.20" vs. 0z figure of 0.15" In most areas, both the 12z ECMWF and 12z GFS are in good agreement. There are some large differences in Philadelphia and Boston (>33.3% of the average of the two models). Hi Don. Do you believe that there is room for this to come a bit north even though the big e models are close now? Do the high res. And nam have any weight? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 The Great North American Blizzard of 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LIsnowBubble Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 The ECMWF was ever so slightly more generous on the northern extent of the snow. HPN: 0.75" vs. 0z figure of 0.72" NYC: 1.12" vs. 0z figure of 1.08" POU: 0.20" vs. 0z figure of 0.15" In most areas, both the 12z ECMWF and 12z GFS are in good agreement. There are some large differences in Philadelphia and Boston (>33.3% of the average of the two models). Don, I can't get into Euro... How does KFRG look... Thanks.... abck to work. will check in a few if you can just ID south shore LI west to east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 I am really confident in saying this takes one more bump North. The 6"+ line I feel makes it to I-84 with a very fast drop off North of there. That is my feeling exactly and I have posted that several times in this thread as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 The text output numbers from the 12z NAM were insane. For example MMU is 44.1" on 3.03" LE. LGA was 33.0" on 2.64" LE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxWeatherwatcher Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 The Great North American Blizzard of 2016 beautiful shot!.keep in mind it's still a child growing in to a man at this stage! lol.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowWisher Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Don, I can't get into Euro... How does KFRG look... Thanks.... abck to work. will check in a few if you can just ID south shore LI west to east. KFRG is 15" on 1.38 qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 The 18z forecasts from the 12z runs of the NAM and GFS have shown little difference so far. The NAM has done bett4er in Charlottesville and Richmond. The GFS has done better in Raleigh and Roanoke. At this very early stage of the event, the lack of major differences in performance is not too surprising. How the each model has fared at 0z might provide some insight, especially if both models remain far apart with regard to the extent of heaviest snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 NAM WRF Talk about winds... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 KFRG is 15" on 1.38 qpf 1.28" qpf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowWisher Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Don, I can't get into Euro... How does KFRG look... Thanks.... abck to work. will check in a few if you can just ID south shore LI west to east. KFRG is 15" on 1.38 qpf And KISP is 11.6" on 1.16 liquid per Euro Text output Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 NAM WRF Talk about winds... Gorgeous, and definitely warrants a Blizzard warning. Noce pressure gradient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Latest from WPC has shifted heavier north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 The Cobb Method Algorithm for the 12Z GFS is onboard now with 17" at LGA, doing it mostly with a 15:1 ratio on a little more than inch of precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 NAM WRF Talk about winds... That's ferocious. If the NAM is right with its tucked into closer to the coast idea, the coast is going to take a battering. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 As per the Senate webcam, the first flakes of snow are now falling on Capitol Hill. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 that update was many hours ago time for a new update this afternoon i would think Upton updated: Still analyzing models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowWisher Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 1.28" qpf. KFRG is 15" on 1.38 qpf Hmmm I still get 1.38 for Farmingdale per eruowx.com text. Oh well a tenth of an inch doesn't matter in the end Period Precipitation [in] 0.02 0.21 0.53 0.43 0.19 = 1.38 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 The Great North American Blizzard of 2016 Look at that moisture feed all the way from the Yucatan!!!! She's a bute!!! Thank the lord we are on the right side of the storm this time!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ScottB Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 The Cobb Method Algorithm for the 12Z GFS is onboard now with 17" at LGA, doing it mostly with a 15:1 ratio on a little more than inch of precip. Wish we would see 15:1. Most likely no where near the coast. Wind is going to completely eat at any growth. Not only that but temps wont help either. 8/10:1. Higher ratios on backside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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