EastonSN+ Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 The UKMET pulled back a little... If you don't mind me asking - did it pull back just in terms of intensity, for did the precip. shield sink South - if the latter I have a bad feeling as EUR usually follows. Hopefully a blip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Right now, it's just pretty pictures... the ARW suite does tend to run way too wet. I'm really not concerned with the QPF amounts, more so with the placement of how far North and West the snow makes it. Even so, it's not much different than the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Still dumping at 02z Sunday from Scranton East. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 I'm really not concerned with the QPF amounts, more so with the placement of how far North and West the snow makes it. Even so, it's not much different than the NAM Wow! even with those panels you are showing qpf didn't even increase overhead. Its gonna be a sad day up here tomorrow when we watch those radar echoes get shredded away by that dry air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 The NWS already increased the NYC forecast to 7 to 12. They did that with the 4 am package - with this info, today, they'll likely bump up again (if the Euro doesn't backtrack)... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 They did that with the 4 am package - with this info, today, they'll likely bump up again (if the Euro doesn't backtrack)... The Euro either needs to hold or nudge a bit north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Virga already coming up from the SW on KDIX radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 If you don't mind me asking - did it pull back just in terms of intensity, for did the precip. shield sink South - if the latter I have a bad feeling as EUR usually follows. Hopefully a blip. It pulled the 25 cm and 30 cm lines just a little south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dhaulagiri1 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 If you don't mind me asking - did it pull back just in terms of intensity, for did the precip. shield sink South - if the latter I have a bad feeling as EUR usually follows. Hopefully a blip. It sank south slightly in the mid ranges, say 7.5mm to 30mm, but overall areal coverage of the precipitation is nearly identical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Gefs 1.25 to NYC we snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 As we're approaching 18z, it appears that the 12z GFS is doing somewhat better than the 12z NAM in terms of its QPF forecast for such cities as Raleigh and Roanoke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchel Volk Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 I am currently going 8"-14" for the city. Using a blend of the GFS, NAM, RGEM, ECMWF, last nights UKMET and GEM. I do think things can change, waiting to see where the heavy bands set up. It soon will be a now casting storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 I am currently going 8"-14" for the city. Using a blend of the GFS, NAM, RGEM, ECMWF, last nights UKMET and GEM. I do think things can change, waiting to see where the heavy bands set up. It soon will be a now casting storm. Thanks for your updates this week! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Gefs 1.25 to NYC we snow Did they bump north, south or stay the course? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Final numbers from the ARW. A great run for 95% of the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Did they bump north, south or stay the course? Wetter in the north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 I am currently going 8"-14" for the city. Using a blend of the GFS, NAM, RGEM, ECMWF, last nights UKMET and GEM. I do think things can change, waiting to see where the heavy bands set up. It soon will be a now casting storm. Nice call, you may have to bump that up a bit later. I am going with 12"-18" for my area (northeastern portion of Middlesex County NJ). If we get into into the heavier banding I could see us going over 20" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 I am currently going 8"-14" for the city. Using a blend of the GFS, NAM, RGEM, ECMWF, last nights UKMET and GEM. I do think things can change, waiting to see where the heavy bands set up. It soon will be a now casting storm. 8-14 looks good...14" would be the third largest January storm on record...1935 had 18" in some parts of the city... January's greatest snowstorms for NYC... 20.2" 1996 1/7-8 19.0" 2011 1/26-27 13.8" 2005 1/22-23 13.6" 1978 1/19-20 13.0" 1877 1/1-2 13.0" 1879 1/15-16 13.0" 1935 1/23-24 12.5" 1964 1/12-13 11.5" 1925 1/2 11.0" 1905 1/24-25 10.3" 2004 1/28 10.0" 1897 1/27-28 10.0" 1908 1/23-24 10.0" 1910 1/14-15 9.9"...1961 1/19-20 9.8"...2015 1/26-27 9.1"...2011 1/11-12 9.0"...1869 1/1 9.0"...1923 1/3-4 9.0"...1936 1/19 8.8"...1939 1/13-14 8.6"...1954 1/10-12 8.1"...1987 1/22 8.0"...1871 1/26-27 8.0"...1873 1/27 8.0"...1882 1/31 8.0"...1891 1/25 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 12z GEFS mean max res Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 A lot of our precip up here would fall after the time stamp he posted.. Still a long shot Thats a map of the 0z run.. New run gets a good chunk of O.C into high end advisory snows. Thats about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jasperk99 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 So after the 12z Euro comes out we switch to an obs nowcasting thread? Who am I kidding we will still examine every 18Z model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeS Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 The UKMET pulled back a little... That's barely even noticeable.. that's just noise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 That's barely even noticeable.. that's just noise. I don't disagree. I'm looking forward to the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 The 12z GGEM ensemble mean is much better than the OP. Gets the 1"+ line back to High Point and the 0.75"+ Contour North of I-84. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 8-14 looks good...14" would be the third largest January storm on record...1935 had 18" in some parts of the city... January's greatest snowstorms for NYC... 20.2" 1996 1/7-8 19.0" 2011 1/26-27 13.8" 2005 1/22-23 13.6" 1978 1/19-20 13.0" 1877 1/1-2 13.0" 1879 1/15-16 13.0" 1935 1/23-24 12.5" 1964 1/12-13 11.5" 1925 1/2 11.0" 1905 1/24-25 10.3" 2004 1/28 10.0" 1897 1/27-28 10.0" 1908 1/23-24 10.0" 1910 1/14-15 9.9"...1961 1/19-20 9.8"...2015 1/26-27 9.1"...2011 1/11-12 9.0"...1869 1/1 9.0"...1923 1/3-4 9.0"...1936 1/19 8.8"...1939 1/13-14 8.6"...1954 1/10-12 8.1"...1987 1/22 8.0"...1871 1/26-27 8.0"...1873 1/27 8.0"...1882 1/31 8.0"...1891 1/25 Wow, pretty paltry list. Reminds you how meh NYC is for snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 The 12z GGEM ensemble mean is much better than the OP. Gets the 1"+ line back to High Point and the 0.75"+ Contour North of I-84. Any map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 I am currently going 8"-14" for the city. Using a blend of the GFS, NAM, RGEM, ECMWF, last nights UKMET and GEM. I do think things can change, waiting to see where the heavy bands set up. It soon will be a now casting storm. That's my "guesstimate" from a couple of pages ago - seems reasonable. Even if it's 6" but blizzard conditions, it'll keep people off the roads so the Sanitation Dept. can do its job and if it's more than 14" it won't matter too much, since 14" is still a major (and close to historic) storm. Saw the Fox5 story on your role as the forecaster for the NYC Sanitation Dept. last night - great stuff!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 The 12z GGEM ensemble mean is much better than the OP. Gets the 1"+ line back to High Point and the 0.75"+ Contour North of I-84. OMG. Wood chopping Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUMG11 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 TWC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Wow, pretty paltry list. Reminds you how meh NYC is for snow. nyc is not meh for snow the last 2 years we have done very nicely it's just we have had big snowstorms in december and february less big ones in january Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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