dtk Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 On 1/22/2016 at 4:34 PM, IsentropicLift said: Super High Res simulated composite (1km) This is the simulated reflectivity at 1km AGL and not a composite. The model itself is still run at ~4 km. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 On 1/22/2016 at 4:40 PM, IntenseBlizzard2014 said: Nice. The 12Z NAVGEM has 12-15" of snowfall for the Tri-State Area. Would you mind posting? I'm sure it's going to differ a lot from South to North. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ScottB Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 On 1/22/2016 at 4:42 PM, IsentropicLift said: Looks to be where a nice band is about to set up shop. In actuality, whoever gets stuck under those bands is probably going to get crushed. Fingers crossed for thundersnow for once. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 On 1/22/2016 at 4:44 PM, dtk said: This is the simulated reflectivity at 1km AGL and not a composite. The model itself is still run at ~4 km. Ah okay thanks for clarifying. Is it useful in this case? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Someone said TWC is already 12-18 for NYC? Can anyone confirm that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Looks very similar to the 12k NAM to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swamplover56 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 On 1/22/2016 at 4:44 PM, IsentropicLift said: Would you mind posting? I'm sure it's going to differ a lot from South to North. Yanks how much did you get in bdb? Obv much different storm but northern cutoff seems slightly similar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ScottB Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 On 1/22/2016 at 4:45 PM, Blizzardo said: Someone said TWC is already 12-18 for NYC? Can anyone confirm that? Confirmed. Just saw the graphic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 On 1/22/2016 at 4:44 PM, IsentropicLift said: Would you mind posting? I'm sure it's going to differ a lot from South to North. Going based on the frames. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 PDII struggled for hours to get snow north of Trenton too, then it came like gangbusters. I'm 1600 miles away from this and I'm still weenie-ing out at what's going on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 So the mid-level center is right off the VA capes here. You can see that based off the dry slotting. You can also see a secondary surface low starting to form to the East Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 On 1/22/2016 at 4:42 PM, IsentropicLift said: How far does it go and how often does it run? Can you please keep posting these as they update? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 UKMET slightly drier for NYC but still looks like around a foot southern Brooklyn Queens LI and SI with closer to 8-10 just north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 On 1/22/2016 at 4:46 PM, swamplover56 said: Yanks how much did you get in bdb? Obv much different storm but northern cutoff seems slightly similar That was more of a NW to SE gradient. Around 14" from that one, but next town over from me had 22". Just got a little unlucky with some of the banding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Close to a dry slot in this panel. But all of that should pivot back to the SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Dry slot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Left over deformation band after that point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Through 18z Saturday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 On 1/22/2016 at 4:49 PM, IsentropicLift said: Dry slot This looks a lot like the 12Z 4K NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Things fill back in and then we have two scenarios. The coastal further offshore takes over and the dynamics exit stage right quickly or the system stalls and snows itself out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 On 1/22/2016 at 4:52 PM, IsentropicLift said: Through 18z Saturday Is this model any decent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 On 1/22/2016 at 4:52 PM, IsentropicLift said: Through 18z Saturday How does this compare to the HRRR in terms of skill? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 There would be some insane rates within this band Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 On 1/22/2016 at 4:54 PM, danstorm said: How does this compare to the HRRR in terms of skill? I have no idea. Didn't even know it existed until today lol. Either way, it looks very similar to the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 The UKMET pulled back a little... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Oh man I've never seen this in a TAF for a city here on the east coast KDCA 221508Z 2215/2312 06006KT P6SM OVC130 FM221800 06007KT P6SM -SN OVC050 FM221900 07008KT 3/4SM -SN OVC008 FM222100 06012KT 1/4SM +SN OVC003 FM230500 04021G29KT 1/4SM +SN OVC003 FM230600 04023G31KT 0SM +SN BLSN OVC003 FM231000 03027G38KT 0SM +SN BLSN OV Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 On 1/22/2016 at 4:55 PM, IsentropicLift said: I have no idea. Didn't even know it existed until today lol. Either way, it looks very similar to the NAM. Right now, it's just pretty pictures... the ARW suite does tend to run way too wet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 On 1/22/2016 at 4:54 PM, IsentropicLift said: There would be some insane rates within this band Is that a 35 DBZ+ speck near my house? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Just keeps dumping and dumping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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