IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 SREFs! I'm all in for this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 You're thinking 2/6... There was another big storm a few days later Yup, I forgot that, and thats why I deleted it . Some memories are as crisp as a brand new dollar bill even if 40 years old but some others from 4 not so much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Crushed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Wow, look at how far north that goes! Stunning looking, how dependable R they though in this times range? Thought they were more a fine detail inside 24 hours kind of deal, a la the HRR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jan21 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 is that sref from weathervista? i have been looking for a good site that has the sref. weatherbell doesn't and neither does accuweather pro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 is that sref from weathervista? i have been looking for a good site that has the sref. weatherbell doesn't and neither does accuweather pro http://synoptic.envsci.rutgers.edu/dougsimo/indexsref.html#21z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bboughton Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 MAJOR shift on the 21z SREF I know SREFs are garbage but if this verified it would cripple an unprepared region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Even Boston gets hammered on the 21z SREF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tibet Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 RAP is identical to NAM.... LHV sweet spot in NNJ rockland and Orange LHV = Lehigh Valley? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 According to the above SREF, is it just that it expanded a lot, but the city is still the same precip? Am I reading it correctly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 LHV = Lehigh Valley? Lower Hudson Valley Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Looks like the latest SREF brings the low more up the coast...not to the benchmark, but close enough for this storm. That would be a nice trend to see continue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 I know SREFs are garbage but if this verified it would cripple an unprepared region. What do you mean unprepared? I know in NYC they have the department of sanitation out in full force already for a foot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 You forget that we (wx-board members) are most definitely not normal people. As per your handle, lol. I post a lot of weather info on another board and I have people basically calling me a baby-killer (well, at least an uncaring, hateful person rooting for death and destruction) for rooting for snow. Some don't even understand that rooting for something has no impact on its outcome and even those who do still don't think anyone should root for bad weather, ever. The other thing I pointed out is that crime goes way down, as well as accident rates (even if some accidents do get caused by winter conditions), since so few are out and about. It's a little annoying, but I'm kind of used to it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
F5TornadoF5 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 I know SREFs are garbage but if this verified it would cripple an unprepared region. I want to know what the mean of the generally less amped members were. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Ok, somethings got to be up. The NW trend is real, yeah the SREF memebers are lost a lot of the time, but as we get closer they get better and are trending favorably. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 I want to know what the mean of the generally less amped members were. There are no less amped members.... The members are either massive hits... Or no precip at all, very few in between, and when I say very few, I mean like 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 NYC has a mean of 15" on the 21z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SleetStormNJ Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Ok, somethings got to be up. The NW trend is real, yeah the SREF memebers are lost a lot of the time, but as we get closer they get better and are trending favorably. If my memory serves me correct they were actually one of the first models and in subsequent runs to start walking back and bailing on Juno last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 If my memory serves me correct they were actually one of the first models and in subsequent runs to start walking back and bailing on Juno last year. They also caught on to the Raleigh and VA snow event last winter in February being way north. 2 days out most models had it in GSP ATL etc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 NYC has a mean of 15" on the 21z The more stable NMB mean moved up from 0.81" to 1.23". Excluding MBP1, which often is the most extreme member of the NMB group, the mean still moved up from 0.77" to 1.08". This is a nice move. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 It's even better at hour 60! Gets SCT into the 1.25-1.50 contour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 They also caught on to the Raleigh and VA snow event last winter in February being way north. 2 days out most models had it in GSP ATL etcSonyou think they're on to something? Are you becoming more optimistic? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shadowsintherain Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Does this storm have ANYTHING dynamically in common with the big bust of 2003? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Sonyou think they're on to something? Are you becoming more optimistic? That is a massive shift and eye catching. We need to go 2 for 2 tonight and we are in. The 18z GFS tick north was also important. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jan21 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 I can't believe this. Just like the NAM. if GFS CMC and ECMWF jump on board?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 I can't believe this. Just like the NAM. if GFS CMC and ECMWF jump on board?? Pardon me, but what are the SREFS? How are they different? I thought they were usually useless from what I have seen here..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 I understand the optimism, since we got a couple of things to go our way after entirely depression inducing 12 Z runs BUT I caution balance. the RPM is undependable as is the SREF to a good degree, though the 18 Z GFS was encouraging. So lets all enjoy the evening and wait for GFS and hope it isnt GOOFUS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jan21 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Pardon me, but what are the SREFS? How are they different? I thought they were usually useless from what I have seen here..... Short Range Ensemble Forecasting. usually they follow the ARW which overhype precip. Kind of like what the NAM does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 The NAM looks similar at the H5 through HR 12. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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