killabud Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 i don't know why some of you are acting like that was a bad run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 It's just amazing to me how the low reforms to the East and pulls everything with it. It's reforming the low right over the warm eddies in the GS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Lets split the difference between the NAM and GFS - I will be very happy. I am really curious to see the GFS ensembles. I heard that the EUR ensembles were "eye opening" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 i don't why some of you are acting like that was a bad runYeah, definitely north with heavier snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SleetStormNJ Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 That's a sizable jump though even with it insisting on jumping east. Looks nothing like either the RGEM or NAM depictions or evolution even. Nobody in the metro is out of the big game potential as far as I can see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 This was a great run for the metro area…I doubt there will be a qpf diamond like that in SNJ. I think NYC looks good for 10-12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 i don't why some of you are acting like that was a bad run It wasn't bad at all. For central/southern NJ it was excellent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 I'll take it, brought the gradient further north - would still like it to gain more latitude before ejecting east, but there's room for that in later runs. That is an improvement of AT LEAST 30-40 miles which is MAJOR for this type of storm. Brings warning snowfall all the way to I-84 instead of I-87 in NY like the last run.... no reason why it shouldn't come north more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jets Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Notice convective feedback is less which is why it is more north with higher qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 The GFS is surely nothing like the NAM, however, it is a HUGE improvement compared to its last several runs. 20"+ even into parts of Hunterdon country NJ, not just southern NJ. As Issntropic said, move this 25 miles N, it's not too far off from the hi res NAM (assuming we discount the 12km NAM). Nice run! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rittenhouse Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 HRRR looks better for us than the RAP. Similar evolution as NAM4km. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 All hail the NAM/SREFs, GFS caves... GFS has 1" QPF north of Rt.80...1.25" QPF and 2" QPF to parts of N/C NJ... GFS nudged north. It did not cave lol.. NAM gives the LHV 12-20" GFS gives 2-4" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Gfs caved GFS is still nothing like the NAM for anyone north of the city.. Wouldn't call it a cave, I'd say it increased QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 I'll take it, brought the gradient further north - would still like it to gain more latitude before ejecting east, but there's room for that in later runs. "I'll take it" might be the understatement of the year, lol. Huge shift northward, relatively speaking. Looking really good for NYC/LI and adjacent NJ at least not getting hosed and maybe getting a foot of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 It wasn't bad at all. For central/southern NJ it was excellent. lol its 1.50+ of qpf for u lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 My quibble with those ensembles is that they seem unrealistically tight. Right now they have a 6" gradient in mean snowfall in 30 miles (BLM-JFK). That seems improbably certain to me - isn't there more uncertainty than that even if you knew almost precisely what the initial conditions were? Yeah, they are compute limited and can only afford to run a 10 member ensemble. However, there is decent variability if you look at the postage stamp simulated reflectivity (member 1 is pretty far north, and member 5 way south, and all others in between). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SleetStormNJ Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 The GFS is surely nothing like the NAM, however, it is a HUGE improvement compared to its last several runs. 20"+ even into parts of Hunterdon country NJ, not just southern NJ. As Issntropic said, move this 25 miles N, it's not too far off from the hi res NAM (assuming we discount the 12km NAM). Nice run! Follow where the GFS is painting it's huge blob, there's clearly going to be a tremendous band oriented nearby and it's not going to look like that, almost a muffin like blob. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 GFS is still nothing like the NAM for anyone north of the city.. Wouldn't call it a cave, I'd say it increased QPF BRO... its not going to just jump 75 miles north like the NAM... but I think the truth probably lies in between the NAM and GFS at this point... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 GFS also shifted eastward slightly Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hooralph Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 There is no "cave" but if you look at the 0z, 6z and 12z precip GFS panels, there is a clear, steady northward shift. Philly gets buried this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 lol its 1.50+ of qpf for u lol And even higher amounts aren't far away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeS Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 I don't take the parent (12km) NAM seriously, especially when it differs from its nest (4km). I also tend to ignore the SREFs in favor of the NCAR WRF ensemble system: http://ensemble.ucar.edu/ Having said that, I have only just started paying attention to the northern part of this forecast as I'm always fascinated by these aspects. I haven't done enough digging to be able to say anything intelligent about the "why" with respect to the differences. If you don't mind me asking, what is your reasoning for favoring the NCAR WRF over the upgraded SREFs? Better verification? Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 The Eastward adjustment isn't all bad for a few reasons: - so long as you get engulfed in the overrunning, it will continue to snow as the low departs as you'll be under the CCB - limits mixing potential, which is there with the wrapped up solutions - minimizes dry slot issues (which were showing up to our south primarily but you get the idea) - greatly limits the coastal flooding risk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 10 inches verbatim in the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 12+ on instant weather maps for NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 GFS actually looked a good amount better to me. Like the RGEM, it washes out the very heavy banding over SE PA before hitting NYC, but it's a decent step the right direction. It redevelops the far out to sea low a little too soon, which reduces the dynamics near NYC. It wouldn't have taken much for this to be 1.50"+ liquid for many more people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Pretty Much identical - locked in like last year's blizzard? The RGEM actually didn't perform very well in that storm for areas outside of New Jersey and Far East Suffolk. The areas in between it was significantly too low. Overall it didn't have a great winter like it did in 13-14, this winter it has been markedly better so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 If you don't mind me asking, what is your reasoning for favoring the NCAR WRF over the upgraded SREFs? Better verification? Thanks. Higher resolution, single model, better design. The SREF is flawed in its two-model design and mixing/matching of initial, boundary, and model perturbations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 All hail the NAM/SREFs, GFS caves... GFS has 1" QPF north of Rt.80...1.25" QPF and 2" QPF to parts of N/C NJ... I can't remember the last time everything caved to the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 I'll take it, brought the gradient further north - would still like it to gain more latitude before ejecting east, but there's room for that in later runs. Looks like the 12z GFS brings the 1.25"-1.50" line into Union County NJ as well southern areas of the city, I am just south of that in Northeastern Middlesex County. So certainly another shift north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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