dmillz25 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 The convection down south looks great! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 The convection down south looks great! The moisture feed is almost touching Central American land. Absolutely sick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 The RGEM is better than 06z but it's still not as far NW as the NAM. Probably closer to the 4k NAM and Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 The convection down south looks great! Another big squall line near Florida. This beast has a ton of fuel, I wonder what's going to happen when it starts feeling those super warm waters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Going to come down to the banding for us. If there is a mega band just to our south, we could get stuck in a subsidence zone. Still think we're good for 4-8 up here with chance for more. I fear what happened in 2010 in the 2nd storm where LI got hit hard and we were stuck in the subsidence zone for hours. Ended up with 8 in Norwalk but I heard that Fairfield only had about 4. We were predicted to get a foot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 The RGEM is better than 06z but it's still not as far NW as the NAM. Probably closer to the 4k NAM and Euro. Well the 4k NAM still looks really good for the area... I am sure all of us would be perfectly happy with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 The snow has reached Richmond, VA. Virga has reached SW NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 She's a beaut Clark Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 The moisture feed is almost touching Central American land. Absolutely sick. I'd go further than that - there's some El Nino enhancement from ITCZ convection in the Eastern Pacific. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/wv-animated.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Could we see a huge bust on the low or is it high side. My 10-14" could in fact have to be doubled if many of those models are correct. If the gfs and euro dont come in with higher amounts that 10-14 will stick Also the winds are going to be absolutely ripping if this storm tucks and is as strong as the Nam implies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Well the 4k NAM still looks really good for the area... I am sure all of us would be perfectly happy with that. The 4k NAM pretty much has 18+ for most of LI and NJ. If the RGEM supports it then the NAM's ideas will have a lot more credence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dhaulagiri1 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Idk why everyone is bashing the nam since the nam has had the same solution for several runs. All of these models require significant resources to update and maintain...if and when their "equations" lose all predictive ability they are scrapped. So there's some point in paying attention to any model that maintains a solution for multiple runs, as one of those "equations" may just be accurately modeling this particular atmospheric configuration. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikeysed Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 The 4k NAM pretty much has 18+ for most of LI and NJ. If the RGEM supports it then the NAM's ideas will have a lot more credence. Can you post the latest 4K NAM, how long ago did it run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Can you post the latest 4K NAM, how long ago did it run? It's posted a page back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mulen Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Wam,bam, thankyou nam LOL some were throwing in the towel last night what a rollercoaster ride. This storm is pissed off i'll call it the beast from the southeast rock on. I will admit going through some withdrawal but this to shall pass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 The 4k NAM pretty much has 18+ for most of LI and NJ. If the RGEM supports it then the NAM's ideas will have a lot more credence. Can't see the snow maps yet for the RGEM, but looking at the run, it doesn't look nearly as impressive as either NAM model. Looks like maybe 6-10". Very sharp cutoff NW of NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 The 4k NAM pretty much has 18+ for most of LI and NJ. If the RGEM supports it then the NAM's ideas will have a lot more credence. It's posted a page back. I suggest looking at something other than a 10:1 map for the 4km NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Can you post the latest 4K NAM, how long ago did it run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe4alb Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 side by side shot with '93... amazing show. Such a powerful low, probably part of the reason the models have been having such a hard time here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Models are playing catchup right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Can't see the snow maps yet for the RGEM, but looking at the run, it doesn't look nearly as impressive as either NAM model. Looks like maybe 6-10". Very sharp cutoff NW of NYC I think the main thing is that it has come NORTH... its not going to make a huge jump... small changes to the north is what we want to see at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 A medium range model is "less useful" in the short term?...........what? Not only that, but they really shouldn't be called "medium range". They should be called "global". The current globals run at resolutions that used to be reserved for regional/mesoscale models. Furthermore, how could a model possibly get the medium range correct if it screws up the short term? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 The RGEM has that insane band over NJ mid morning tomorrow which I think causes subsidence over NYC and hence only those 6-10 inch amounts. If that band isn't there I think there is a greater distribution of higher amounts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 The RGEM has that insane band over NJ mid morning tomorrow which I think causes subsidence over NYC and hence only those 6-10 inch amounts. If that band isn't there I think there is a greater distribution of higher amountsYeah, but it looks more favorable than it did. Thats the big takeaway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SleetStormNJ Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 The RGEM has that insane band over NJ mid morning tomorrow which I think causes subsidence over NYC and hence only those 6-10 inch amounts. If that band isn't there I think there is a greater distribution of higher amounts Just saw that. Whoever sits in that band will definitely approach the 18-24 inch plateau. Where it locks in is going to be a nailbiter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 The RGEM has that insane band over NJ mid morning tomorrow which I think causes subsidence over NYC and hence only those 6-10 inch amounts. If that band isn't there I think there is a greater distribution of higher amounts The location of the low on the RGEM is very favorable for big snowfall amounts in NYC. As it has been for several runs. Materially further north than 2/2010, which was the nearest of near misses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Not only that, but they really shouldn't be called "medium range". They should be called "global". The current globals run at resolutions that used to be reserved for regional/mesoscale models. Furthermore, how could a model possibly get the medium range correct if it screws up the short term? Do you have any idea why there's a big difference b/w the regional/mesocale and globals with this storm? You'd probably know better than anyone. I've never seen the GFS and ECWMF in a camp together arrayed against the others . . . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 12z RGEM vs 06z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 RGEM snow map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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