jm1220 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Good trends overnight and so far this morning. This storm looks like an absolute behemoth on satellite too. I think the prospect of "miss" for Rockland/Westchester and south is much, much diminished, and I'd probably go with 10-15" for NYC/LI/up to I-80 in NJ based on the trends overnight and this morning. Where that deform band can sit and the pivoting keeps heavy snow overhead, watch out-that's where someone here can grab 18 or 20". I'm still not ready to say this will be as good for around DC yet for NYC, but the first major part of the battle-getting the heavy snow up to the area, looks to be won. Hopefully the banding acts more like the NAM shows than the GFS. I still think the NAM is too far north and you can see is slowly settling south with how far it gets the heavy snow banding. At least it didn't collapse, which is what I feared it would do after its insane 0z run. North of I-84, unfortunately it still looks to be too little, too late. South from there to White Plains is the real area to watch to see how far north the real snow can get. One key to how much you receive is how soon this second low takes over well offshore and starts shutting down the very heavy snow. If it takes over sooner, snow will begin to diminish and also won't make it as far north. That's where models like the GFS (still up to a foot in parts of NYC and Long Island as well as I-78) will be more right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 I-84 is the cutoff. South of that you're golden. North of there, well Looks like accumulating snow is north of Rt 84 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Get ready for thundersnow over NYC if this verifies. That is some intense lifting. Those are some of the strongest 700mb VV's I've ever seen. That would definitely be a 3-4"/hr band. And at some point it will stop progressing north and sit over one area and rot. That could be a jackpot zone for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 This blows my mind more Than anything... The SREFS are updated, and so VERY well within 12-24hrs.. And no they are not as scewed by the ARW as you may think.. Most NMM members are in board as well..... I'm throwing the challenge on these globals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NittanyWx Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Warmer waters helping out big here. Much like last Sundays snow showers, you can essentially see where the barclinic zone sets up. I've been doing this for a living for a while now, but these bowling ball ULs rarerly seem to miss southward. Models gave a scare, but I think we're starting to see the reality of how close to 96 this storm could very well be, especially in Philly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Good trends overnight and so far this morning. This storm looks like an absolute behemoth on satellite too. I think the prospect of "miss" for Rockland/Westchester and south is much, much diminished, and I'd probably go with 10-15" for NYC/LI/up to I-80 in NJ based on the trends overnight and this morning. Where that deform band can sit and the pivoting keeps heavy snow overhead, watch out-that's where someone here can grab 18 or 20". I'm still not ready to say this will be as good for around DC yet for NYC, but the first major part of the battle-getting the heavy snow up to the area, looks to be won. Hopefully the banding acts more like the NAM shows than the GFS. I still think the NAM is too far north and you can see is slowly settling south with how far it gets the heavy snow banding. At least it didn't collapse, which is what I feared it would do after its insane 0z run. North of I-84, unfortunately it still looks to be too little, too late. South from there to White Plains is the real area to watch to see how far north the real snow can get. One key to how much you receive is how soon this second low takes over well offshore and starts shutting down the very heavy snow. If it takes over sooner, snow will begin to diminish and also won't make it as far north. That's where models like the GFS (still up to a foot in parts of NYC and Long Island as well as I-78) will be more right. Norh of 84 sees warning level snows according to Nam... Pretty far north of 84 actually... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Gonna be awesome to watch this thing transfer to the SC coast and ride up along the Gulf Stream. Holy moisture transport, Batman! Congrats, guys. Looks like that f-gen banding is gonna smoke you down there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmb8021 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 What did the 4K NAM show for the subforum? I've seen that in previous runs the 4K and 12K have been different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swamplover56 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Rpm 2 feet plus nyc metro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizz Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 4KM took a big jump NW since 6z and 00z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Looks like accumulating snow is north of Rt 84 Well I'm assuming there will be a lot of subsidence just to the North of that band so that's why i'm shaving off a few miles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 4KM took a big jump NW since 6z and 00z Yes I was just about to say that.... this is probably a little more realistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 What did the 4K NAM show for the subforum? I've seen that in previous runs the 4K and 12K have been different. 10 inches NYC kuchera method. Pingers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sock Puppet Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 What did the 4K NAM show for the subforum? I've seen that in previous runs the 4K and 12K have been different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 I am starting to suspect that the series of very strong warm eddies along 38N - they are very, very anomalous for this time of year, some of them have 24-25degC water - is this issue here. I don't think they're being properly resolved by the globals, and what's happening is that the eddies are being expanded by the resolution b/c they extend over multiple grid spaces. So the globals see gigantic chunks of 23degC+ water at 38N, and that generates massive convection and pulls the low to where the warmer SSTs are. That's not entirely a false solution, since the warm water is going to draw the low toward where the boundary is, but I think that the globals are overplaying it. There's also plenty of anomalously warmish water just offshore of LI and south of the Islands - ~10degC water south of Long Island and ~8degC water south of Nantucket. I think the fine details of SST are going to be relevant here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rittenhouse Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 This blows my mind more Than anything... The SREFS are updated, and so VERY well within 12-24hrs.. And no they are not as scewed by the ARW as you may think.. Most NMM members are in board as well..... I'm throwing the challenge on these globals GFS and ECMWF are by their very definition "medium-range" models. They are less useful in the short term. Hence why we have the NAM, SREF, HRRR, RAP, etc. The OP Euro kept the heavy snow west during Juno even after the NAM had bailed. It held out to the end. Even the GFS failed to get the details right during that storm, despite its QPF output being fairly accurate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeS Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Yes I was just about to say that.... this is probably a little more realistic. Agreed. It shows about ~60% of the 12km NAMs totals which is inline with the so-called "rule of the NAM" to expect half of what it outputs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Is anyone else concerned about the fact that the precipitation shield has dropped south 2 runs in a row now? It's fine now but if it continues? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swamplover56 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Is anyone else concerned about the fact that the precipitation shield has dropped south 2 runs in a row now? It's fine now but if it continues? It's honing in as we get closer to the start time. As yanks fan has said south of 84 you should be fine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikemost Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 GFS and ECMWF are by their very definition "medium-range" models. They are less useful in the short term. Hence why we have the NAM, SREF, HRRR, RAP, etc. The OP Euro kept the heavy snow west during Juno even after the NAM had bailed. It held out to the end. Even the GFS failed to get the details right during that storm, despite its QPF output being fairly accurate. Let's not forget the RGEM in that list... let's see how it comes in for 12z. I'd strongly prefer to have it on our side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dhaulagiri1 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Is anyone else concerned about the fact that the precipitation shield has dropped south 2 runs in a row now? It's fine now but if it continues? Don't worry yourself, there are no runs left, it's nowcast time for what should be a spectacular storm for those under it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Could we see a huge bust on the low or is it high side. My 10-14" could in fact have to be doubled if many of those models are correct. Also the winds are going to be absolutely ripping if this storm tucks and is as strong as the Nam implies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 expect it to contiune moving south on future runs. Final correction last model run prior to the start of snow in the metro area. Just model noise, the actual Low was north of 06z and stalled in a better spot... Deciphering 10-20 mile shifts in precip shield is NOT a good idea.. Gonna pull ur hair out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RockawayRowdies Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 As a non-weather person who's interested in models, I do have this question for you fine folks: Why are the local NOAA offices (both Mt Holly and Upton), with their 9:30 updates to the point/click weather, still saying only about 7-ish inches for my area (Rockaway, Morris County) and 6-ish inches for Mahwah,NJ area even though all these newer model updates are spewing much more than that amount? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Is anyone else concerned about the fact that the precipitation shield has dropped south 2 runs in a row now? It's fine now but if it continues? Going to come down to the banding for us. If there is a mega band just to our south, we could get stuck in a subsidence zone. Still think we're good for 4-8 up here with chance for more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 As a non-weather person who's interested in models, I do have this question for you fine folks: Why are the local NOAA offices (both Mt Holly and Upton), with their 9:30 updates to the point/click weather, still saying only about 7-ish inches for my area (Rockaway, Morris County) and 6-ish inches for Mahwah,NJ area even though all these newer model updates are spewing much more than that amount? Because making a forecast is not just taking the model with the highest qpf and then taking snow maps verbatim Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jets Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Rgem continues to trend slightly north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dhaulagiri1 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 As a non-weather person who's interested in models, I do have this question for you fine folks: Why are the local NOAA offices (both Mt Holly and Upton), with their 9:30 updates to the point/click weather, still saying only about 7-ish inches for my area (Rockaway, Morris County) and 6-ish inches for Mahwah,NJ area even though all these newer model updates are spewing much more than that amount? If the rest of the 12z suite comes in further north then they will up those totals this afternoon, and then again possibly for some areas when we get an idea of where the mesoscale features are setting up. Remember last year a forecast for 2-3 feet busted with 9in at KNYC, that mistake will not be made again. If you're looking for a non moving target forecast, try to reach out to Mitch Volk, he forecasts for NYC's san dept and thus has to provide a non wavering forecast 24 hours out in order for the City to prepare snow removal, etc. resources. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
acvyse Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 GFS and ECMWF are by their very definition "medium-range" models. They are less useful in the short term. Hence why we have the NAM, SREF, HRRR, RAP, etc. The OP Euro kept the heavy snow west during Juno even after the NAM had bailed. It held out to the end. Even the GFS failed to get the details right during that storm, despite its QPF output being fairly accurate. A medium range model is "less useful" in the short term?...........what? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
F5TornadoF5 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 RGEM north of 0z comparison at 12hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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