David-LI Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 What's sref verification score? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 The plumes for lga and jfk are 21 and ewr 24. There are now only 2 members that show little or no precip (<1.25in qpf) If and only IF, the storms as dynamic as SREFS/Nam/RPM are showing for KNYC, one would HAVE to think that the gradient will NOT be as drastic as depicted, a tight gradient? Yes... 24"-2" within 30 miles...I say B.S Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 This thing is pulling sooooo much more moisture from the gulf. This is going to be a monster. You can thank El Niño for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Lol if the SREF is right, then NYC will get the jackpot, not DC or Baltimore. Well the plumes for the DC/Baltimore area and west of there show 30-40", though. Awesome for everyone including us now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Some changes between the 1/21 18z and 1/22 6z RGEM (to cover the identical period ending 1/23 18z): Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxWeatherwatcher Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 even more interestingly there are quite a few members going over the 2.5 liquid inch line..that's just insane!..extrapolate early numbers and we are all over 24+ inches for a large part of our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Not that I really put much weight in these snow map graphics but look at the min/max differences. Not to often you see 0" or two feet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 even more interestingly there are quite a few members going over the 2.5 liquid inch line..that's just insane!..extrapolate early numbers and we are all over 24+ inches for a large part of our area. Some have 4" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 If and only IF, the storms as dynamic as SREFS/Nam/RPM are showing for KNYC, one would HAVE to think that the gradient will NOT be as drastic as depicted, a tight gradient? Yes... 24"-2" within 30 miles...I say B.SFrom your mouth to Princess Elsa's ears. Sent from my SM-N910V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 NAM started Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 70 mph wind gust in SE VA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 The NAM is even more amped up than 06z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rittenhouse Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Well the plumes for the DC/Baltimore area and west of there show 30-40", though. Awesome for everyone including us now SREF shows mixing into DC, it will cut down their totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
F5TornadoF5 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 The NAM is even more amped up than 06z. Looks like it is closing off slower too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Serious question. Did the GEFS tick north( Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 NAMS picking up on how strong this storm actually is, the heights are sky rocketing out ahead... This is gonna be a beauty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted January 22, 2016 Author Share Posted January 22, 2016 70 mph wind gust in SE VA Beaches are gonna take a beating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 If and only IF, the storms as dynamic as SREFS/Nam/RPM are showing for KNYC, one would HAVE to think that the gradient will NOT be as drastic as depicted, a tight gradient? Yes... 24"-2" within 30 miles...I say B.S Strongly disagree. That sort of gradient is very common in the biggest storms. Read the KU book. It's almost a classic, diagnostic feature. It often gets obscured a bit by either lake or ocean enhancement, but there's generally an extremely sharp synoptic snow cutoff (with enhanced totals just to the south and east of the cutoff) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 The ULL is quite a bit less elongated which isn't good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 NAM has it snowing in the city by 10 pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
F5TornadoF5 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Nam has it snowing at 10-11 in Nyc. Precip field is larger Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Beaches are gonna take a beating.To be honest I am terrified for the pounding the jersey coast along with Long Island beaches will take. Hope people head warnings and understand what four feet of surge can do Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 The snow is coming in even faster than 06z. General rule with SWFE, in early, out early. Of course when you add a coastal in the mix that throws off the ending Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxWeatherwatcher Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 To be honest I am terrified for the pounding the jersey coast along with Long Island beaches will take. Hope people head warnings and understand what four feet of surge can do lets not mention it's a high tide cycle with a full moon,might be downright life-threatening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 The precip field is a little more compact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Heavy snow into NYC by 06z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted January 22, 2016 Author Share Posted January 22, 2016 Ok guys its the last big model cycle before we switch over to an obs thread...keep the thread clean please, with the ridiculous cutoff being shown we cant clutter up the board while info is being given out and discussed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Ripping from Rockland and Sussex and points South easily by 1-2AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 The coastal is about 4mb stronger by Saturday morning. 986mb just off Ocean City, MD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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