MJO812 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 HRRRX has snow moving in at midnight already. The radar has the precip flying up here. I wouldn't be shocked to see it start even before that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swamplover56 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Srefs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mulen Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Weather is a educated guess no more, no less the fun is in the chase. know matter the credentials it is fascinating, look aviation and marine forecasts are more dire because of the immediate consequences. I'm not in the snow game anymore but i'm rooting for you guys its like an adrenaline rush but once you get the fix theres a let down been there .see ya Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxWeatherwatcher Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 The way this baby is set up, someone just inland from the coast between wash d.c and n.y.c is going to get more then 2 feet of snow,all these trends add up to a historic winter storm for pretty much everyone on this board.But the nam model is looking ever so brilliant as these hours tick down,all recent short range guidance also points to n.y.c getting rocked by heavy snow and blizzard conditions very early tomm morning thru sunday morning.we are within the 24 hour window b.t.w. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 SREF just got wetter yet again. WOW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxWeatherwatcher Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 SREF just got wetter yet again. WOW. told ya snow.we have our doozy!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 SREF just got wetter yet again. WOW. This cannot be ignored any longer ant.....have you seen the NMM ensembles.. 1 day ago they were almost 0" misses, now only 4 are whiffs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 I know people like to discount the NAM and SREFs (rightfully so), but we are certainly getting close to taking them more seriously, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
F5TornadoF5 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 2in for nyc. Even if you cut in half it would be a great storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxWeatherwatcher Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 This cannot be ignored any longer ant.....have you seen the NMM ensembles.. 1 day ago they were almost 0" misses, now only 4 are whiffs i've been on the the snowier side of guidance for 5 days now,70% of this board thought i was going crazy or just ranting but rest assured i was on top of it my friend.now we are within the cusp of a historical event here in the mid-atlantic- northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYStorm Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 I still dont like GFS/Euro having the same solution.... Deadly combo 90% of the time IMO... And it should throw a red flag that nams out to lunch, when the 12k, and 4K are so drastically different Exactly! People need to realize that even within its range, the NAM isn't a great model and always overdoes QPF. The guys on the radio show even laughed about it last night! Nothing wrong with factoring it in and blending with other solutions, but ... just cause it shows what we want it to show doesn't mean it's got this thing pegged. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYStorm Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Their probabilities for NYC are hilarious: Min: <1" Likely: 9" Max: 23" >12" : 47% >18": 23% They're basically saying, "your guess is as good as ours!" Well, isn't weather forecasting based on probabilities? Why is this so different from when they say "chance of rain, 50%" in a regular forecast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxWeatherwatcher Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 b.t.w it's hard to throw out the nam at this point looking at whats currently developing now down south,also the sref's ,the rap/hrrr models have also come on board with even the navgem(horrible model) showing this massive hit.The gfs is not too far off as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
F5TornadoF5 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Exactly! People need to realize that even within its range, the NAM isn't a great model and always overdoes QPF. The guys on the radio show even laughed about it last night! Nothing wrong with factoring it in and blending with other solutions, but ... just cause it shows what we want it to show doesn't mean it's got this thing pegged. That is true however ukmet was great. Euro moved north and so did its ensembles and gfs ensembles. RGEM went in better direction so the overall pattern can't be ignored either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 This will cheer up even the biggest humbug. Steve D, I know some have serious reservations, is goin with 10-15 ( with potential for 20 with banding). Only reason Im sharing Video here is the explanation in the 9 minute video is highly admirable, not because it offers the solution many of us want but because of its simplicity and scientific specifity. Ie. he puts it together surprisngly well. I must admist he pisses me off, at times, but the man is a pro. https://nynjpaweather.com/public/2016/01/22/video-discussion-for-january-22-2016/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 This cannot be ignored any longer ant.....have you seen the NMM ensembles.. 1 day ago they were almost 0" misses, now only 4 are whiffs I am very interested now. event starts in less than 24 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Exactly! People need to realize that even within its range, the NAM isn't a great model and always overdoes QPF. The guys on the radio show even laughed about it last night! Nothing wrong with factoring it in and blending with other solutions, but ... just cause it shows what we want it to show doesn't mean it's got this thing pegged. I could easily see a nam track, with slightly less QPF...I'm telling you guys.. The confluence is over modeled, and that double barrel low is not gonna happen and drag this thing east as quick, go look at the current vort compared to GFS and euro, they aren't even close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 With each passing consecutive run the HRRR has sped up the advance on the snow. It could be in SW parts of the sub-forum by 03z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rittenhouse Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Well, isn't weather forecasting based on probabilities? Why is this so different from when they say "chance of rain, 50%" in a regular forecast? It is unusual to have a spread that large less than 24 hours before onset. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 I think there is a decent shot that DC somewhat gets the shaft. In order for them to get the really high amounts they need to catch the deformation band on the backside and the NAM was very close to dry slotting them permanently before noon tomorrow. Right now that doesn't look to be the case, but it's almost to that point. Keep in mind by getting the shaft, they are still getting around 2" LE but places to the North and West would be in the 3"+ category. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 With each passing consecutive run the HRRR has sped up the advance on the snow. It could be in SW parts of the sub-forum by 03z. Doesn't that bode well for us? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rittenhouse Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 As some of you may know already, the SREF was upgraded this fall. The new (now operational) SREF performed much better during Juno. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/SREF/SREFv7_implementationBriefing.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 I could easily see a nam track, with slightly less QPF...I'm telling you guys.. The confluence is over modeled, and that double barrel low is not gonna happen and drag this thing east as quick, go look at the current vort compared to GFS and euro, they aren't even close I always take the nam and cut the QPF in half. It is getting in its good range now. We'll see. 12z run will be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYStorm Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 It is unusual to have a spread that large less than 24 hours before onset. Maybe that's the "new normal". Every storm, people always complain when they miss accum totals in their forecast. This may be a way of using probabilities to inform the public ... and actually make the forecast more accurate. Granted, it isn't "definitive" and exact, but it does make allowances for variations. It's really impossible to nail an accum forecast for the entire NYC metro area for many reasons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 told ya snow.we have our doozy!! Bumped ip qpf BUT shifted the precip south a bit (the norther edge). The think the models are converging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 The quiet before the...NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 The plumes for lga and jfk are 21 and ewr 24. There are now only 2 members that show little or no precip (<1.25in qpf) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 The plumes for lga and jfk are 21 and ewr 24. There are now only 2 members that show little or no precip (<1.25in qpf)[/quoteGetting really, really interesting. Almost all members are between 15-28" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUMG11 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 This thing is pulling sooooo much more moisture from the gulf. This is going to be a monster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rittenhouse Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Lol if the SREF is right, then NYC will get the jackpot, not DC or Baltimore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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