SnowGoose69 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 The RGEM actually has a brief period of rain for the far eastern south fork of LI and a brief sleet period southern barrier islands of western and central Suffolk. You can see it by viewing accumulations under ice pellets and rain on the metrocentre link Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxWeatherwatcher Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 http://www.goes.noaa.gov/GSSLOOPS/ecwv.html The confluence is going bye bye my friends.And not 1 model has forecast such a large and powerful storm this early in the game,when it hit's the Atlantic seaboard it might be scary to think how much moisture is going to be pumped back at us from that nice and warm ocean AND A BOMB DEVELOPING.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Except they don't have the same solution In comparison to the track and gradient they do, not amounts per say.. They are nothing as outlandish as nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 The 0Z Euro was about a 30 mile north shift. WXbell snowfall maps are around 6" to near Bear Mountain...12"....NYC....12-14" LI.....16-18" CNJ. Plenty of blowing and drifting with wind gusts to 50 mph or more in the blizzard warned areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Things look good to me. Almost time for now casting and only using the very short range models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 http://www.goes.noaa.gov/GSSLOOPS/ecwv.html The confluence is going bye bye my friends.And not 1 model has forecast such a large and powerful storm this early in the game,when it hit's the Atlantic seaboard it might be scary to think how much moisture is going to be pumped back at us from that nice and warm ocean AND A BOMB DEVELOPING.. yeah you can clearly see this. All this convection is pumping the ridge out to the east, and allowing the confluence to push north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 The 0Z Euro was about a 30 mile north shift. WXbell snowfall maps are around 6" to near Bear Mountain...12"....NYC....12-14" LI.....16-18" CNJ. Plenty of blowing and drifting with wind gusts to 50 mph or more in the blizzard warned areas. Wow that's pretty significant and the ensembles were even further north and the PARA was even further north then the ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WaPo Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Could the confluence build back in? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikemost Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Can't see exactly where as I'm on my phone. But tornado warnings on the FL panhandle. Hoping that strong convection leads to good things up here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Could the confluence build back in? Definitely not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxWeatherwatcher Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Could the confluence build back in? It has a chance to but the stj is screaming north and allowing the confluence to build from the northwest very slowly instead of clearing or shunting out.Means a bit northerly with more moisture at the gradient for these parts.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Man, what a difficult forecast for NY mets! Went to bad kind of feeling down with the 0z RGEM and GFS, nice to see that things trended north. Cant wait to see what the short term models have in store for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Man, what a difficult forecast for NY mets! Went to bad kind of feeling down with the 0z RGEM and GFS, nice to see that things trended north. Cant wait to see what the short term models have in store for us. It's pretty easy for NYC right now. Very tough HPN and north. NYC consensus is 6"-12"+. Period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mike1984 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Morning mets seemed to have gone down with amounts in northern NJ from last night. What gives? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Morning mets seemed to have gone down with amounts in northern NJ from last night. What gives? They are always 12 hours behind on models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Wow that's pretty significant and the ensembles were even further north and the PARA was even further north then the ensembles. This is the first time in recent years that the GFS MOS wind product has sustained 31KT at JFK during a snowstorm. The only other time I can remember that product going over 30 KT during a snow was Boxing Day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Morning mets seemed to have gone down with amounts in northern NJ from last night. What gives? Dunno, TWC was saying 6 for NJ and NYC, but NPR is saying 8-12...have been all morning. Blizzard warning is up. Seems they feel we are getting a significant storm, just not the catastrophe unfolding south of here. They did feel he wind was now going to be a real issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 I'm hearing parts of southern Illinois, Ohio are already expecting to bust high on storm totals due to more expansive northern fringe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Clear trend of precip moving in faster then originally modeled down south, sooner it gets in here better off we will be... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 I'm hearing parts of southern Illinois, Ohio are already expecting to bust high on storm totals due to more expansive northern fringeNWS just updated, 2-7 inches total for Rockland. Still a watch, no warning. I'm guessing it becomes a winter weather advisory this afternoon. There is going to be a big cutoff over Rockland it would appear Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stlirish Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Good write up by NWS. They are 8-12" for NYC and LI. They mentioned Euro and SREFs being around 1" QPF. Using NAM closely for wind profile. Blizzard Warning as most of you know. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 NWS just updated, 2-7 inches total for Rockland. Still a watch, no warning. I'm guessing it becomes a winter weather advisory this afternoon. There is going to be a big cutoff over Rockland it would appear At this point it's impossible to determine where that line will set up, 20 things can effect it between now and tomorrow, still 24hrs almost Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mulen Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Again never underestimate piss warm water onshore just an obs keep the weather simple this storm is loaded for bear ,wam, bam thankyou nam LOL. even though that computer model is right when you cut its totals in half alot of the time in winter storms.see ya Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rittenhouse Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Dry air retreats quicker on the RAP than the GFS and NAM. The first part of the storm could overperform, especially for northern suburbs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Coastal Flood Warning for tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 WPC track adjusted west allowing closer pass north upon departure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 The parallel Euro is a little south of the regular Euro. 7 inches in Manhattan, 10-12 in Brooklyn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rittenhouse Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Good write up by NWS. They are 8-12" for NYC and LI. They mentioned Euro and SREFs being around 1" QPF. Using NAM closely for wind profile. Blizzard Warning as most of you know. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Their probabilities for NYC are hilarious: Min: <1" Likely: 9" Max: 23" >12" : 47% >18": 23% They're basically saying, "your guess is as good as ours!" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 HRRRX has snow moving in at midnight already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 The parallel Euro is a little south of the regular Euro. 7 inches in Manhattan, 10-12 in Brooklyn. The euro is doing an awful job this far.. Look at the parallel HR 6, doesn't even have precip into KY yet, bowling green is already reporting heavy snow... IMO, GFS and euro are both way off on the strength, and precip shields Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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