Rjay Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Does anyone have the total precip for the JMA? Use this link. http://meteocentre.com/models/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 21Z RPM destroys NYC into SNE again. Since were discussing the JMA and SREFS why not throw the RPM into the soup. This model will do that over and over then last minute pull the rug out from under you and laugh...if you're stupid enough to believe it in the first place. The GEFS 18Z bump north is interesting though. 00Z run suite will be a ride tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 If either the Para Euro or NAM/JMA/RPM somehow verify there are going to be some insanely pissed off people in this area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Use this link. http://meteocentre.com/models/ That's a solid bump north from 12Z 12Z Run Total Accum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 CRITICAL WEATHER DAY STATUS...CWD WILL BE DECLARED AT 21/1200Z AND EXTEND THROUGH 24/1200Z DUETO ANTICIPATED IMPACTS FROM A LATE WEEK WINTER STORM IMPACTINGTHE U.S. EAST COAST.IN SUPPORT OF MONITORING THE EVOLUTION OF A LATE WEEK WINTERSTORM EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE U.S. EAST COAST, SPECIAL SOUNDINGSARE REQUESTED BEGINNING TODAY AT 1800Z. ALL REGIONAL DIRECTORSHAVE APPROVED THE SPECIAL SOUNDING RELEASE SCHEDULE BELOW. IFTHERE ARE ANY QUESTIONS, CONTACT YOUR REGION OR THE SDM.*** SPECIAL SOUNDING REQUESTS ***CENTRAL REGION: ENTIRE REGION FROM 20/1800Z TO 22/0600ZSOUTHERN REGION: EXCLUDING TX AND FL...FROM TX EASTWARD BEGINNINGFROM 21/1800Z TO 22/1800Z.EASTERN REGION: WFOs RNK, GSO, MHX, IAD, PIT, OKX, ALB, CHHBEGINNING FROM 21/1800Z TO 23/0600Z.READY/SDM/NCO/NCEP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Special Sounding Data was involved in the 18Z Suite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 If either the Para Euro or NAM/JMA/RPM somehow verify there are going to be some insanely pissed off people in this area Why would anyone be pissed off in this area, by which I assume you mean Tri-State, if the NAM/JMA/RPM verify? You mean because their forecasts busted hard? Most people would be insanely delighted I'd imagine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Why would anyone be pissed off in this area, by which I assume you mean Tri-State, if the NAM/JMA/RPM verify? You mean because their forecasts busted hard? Most people would be insanely delighted I'd imagine. We might be, the general public wouldn't be so thrilled if we got 2 feet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 CRITICAL WEATHER DAY STATUS... CWD WILL BE DECLARED AT 21/1200Z AND EXTEND THROUGH 24/1200Z DUE TO ANTICIPATED IMPACTS FROM A LATE WEEK WINTER STORM IMPACTING THE U.S. EAST COAST. IN SUPPORT OF MONITORING THE EVOLUTION OF A LATE WEEK WINTER STORM EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE U.S. EAST COAST, SPECIAL SOUNDINGS ARE REQUESTED BEGINNING TODAY AT 1800Z. ALL REGIONAL DIRECTORS HAVE APPROVED THE SPECIAL SOUNDING RELEASE SCHEDULE BELOW. IF THERE ARE ANY QUESTIONS, CONTACT YOUR REGION OR THE SDM. *** SPECIAL SOUNDING REQUESTS *** CENTRAL REGION: ENTIRE REGION FROM 20/1800Z TO 22/0600Z SOUTHERN REGION: EXCLUDING TX AND FL...FROM TX EASTWARD BEGINNING FROM 21/1800Z TO 22/1800Z. EASTERN REGION: WFOs RNK, GSO, MHX, IAD, PIT, OKX, ALB, CHH BEGINNING FROM 21/1800Z TO 23/0600Z. READY/SDM/NCO/NCEP Ah so the Southern and Eastern Region get added today while it was just Central yesterday at 18Z. I noticed the sounding locations at 18Z yesterday were all central US for the most part. This is good news, that would greatly impact the 18Z suite today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sickman Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Why would anyone be pissed off in this area, by which I assume you mean Tri-State, if the NAM/JMA/RPM verify? You mean because their forecasts busted hard? Most people would be insanely delighted I'd imagine. You forget that we (wx-board members) are most definitely not normal people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bboughton Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 If either the Para Euro or NAM/JMA/RPM somehow verify there are going to be some insanely pissed off people in this area I will be one of them. I told folks at work today that I thought 8-12" was the most likely outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 RAP is identical to NAM.... LHV sweet spot in NNJ rockland and Orange Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 If either the Para Euro or NAM/JMA/RPM somehow verify there are going to be some insanely pissed off people in this area the gfs would push nyc over a foot imo. we'd get into the banding Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 we need this squall line to be as robust as possible http://climate.cod.edu/hanis/satellite/2km/index.php?type=MS-rad-1-24&checked=&prodDim=100&overDim=100 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 we were on the edge February 9th 2010 and picked up 10-12" across the city...I'm hoping for a similar outcome... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 we need this squall line to be as robust as possible http://climate.cod.edu/hanis/satellite/2km/index.php?type=MS-rad-1-24&checked=&prodDim=100&overDim=100 Looks good to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Looks good to me Radar looks far more robust and expansive than Modeled for this time frame IMO, really seems to be digging Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 here's the NAM at the start of the 2/5/10 event. the foot+ amounts fell inside the .75" line. if we can get inside that line on the models before this storm i will be excited http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ARC/20100206/WRFEAST_0z/wrfloop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mike1984 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 How does that squall line effect the track?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 we need this squall line to be as robust as possible http://climate.cod.edu/hanis/satellite/2km/index.php?type=MS-rad-1-24&checked=&prodDim=100&overDim=100 You lost many of us Im sure. How does a squall line down south improve our chances for banding 40 hrs from now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 latent heat release from the convection helps build ridging ahead of it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poker2015 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 we need this squall line to be as robust as possible http://climate.cod.edu/hanis/satellite/2km/index.php?type=MS-rad-1-24&checked=&prodDim=100&overDim=100 Looks pretty good, didn't they already have a couple tornados down south? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 You mean in S.I, because here in Queens there werent more than flurries if I recollect correctly, not even a dusting I believe. You're thinking 2/6... There was another big storm a few days later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 latent heat release from the convection helps build ridging ahead of it It also screws people down in the gulf states north of the convection. It's just another reason it's so hard to get a huge snow event in those locations because often times the system has convection by the Gulf that steals moisture Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 here's the NAM at the start of the 2/5/10 event. the foot+ amounts fell inside the .75" line. if we can get inside that line on the models before this storm i will be excited http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ARC/20100206/WRFEAST_0z/wrfloop.html I had forgotten even the NAM was too generous on the north edge. Thats sort of common though that in these events that first contour or two are usually VirgaNotice how the 700mb higher RH more or less was your true snow line vs Virga Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 MAJOR shift on the 21z SREF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikemost Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 SREF's look AMAZING! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yhbrooklyn Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 MAJOR shift on the 21z SREF Wow, look at how far north that goes! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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