pazzo83 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 I mean this thing will be going over some 75-80F water off the GA/SC coast. That should give it a good burst. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Don't want to be THAT guy, but do we chuck the Euro on this run due to technical issues? The actual model probably ran fine. This seems like a data distribution issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 That water vapor loop is golden. This is going to be a special storm for the mid-Atlantic and hopefully us too. I'll laugh and be overjoyed if for some reason that blind squirrel aka the Nam manages to finally find a nut. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfreeeeak Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Euro snowmap shows a foot for NYCpost? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Euro is not great in a short range tight gradient situation like this, since it doesn't have that type of resolution. It has higher resolution than the 12z nam... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 1" liquid line runs west to east across NNJ, the Bronx, and Long Island Sound with higher amounts south. Sharp gradient over lower HV with 0.1" up my way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 00Z RGEM ensemble meteogram for KNYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfreeeeak Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Looks like ukie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seth.P Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 I think most of us would take a foot and run at this point. I think the GFS is on the low end right now, while the NAM at the extreme end. If we blend the two runs, we get a result in number similar to this Euro run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Holy crap the Euro looks great especially from the city south. I didn't think it was that good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 For 15 mins Damn!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ScottB Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 It literally will take a 30 mile shift that isnt prog'd to make or break hearts for so many. Euro looks really decent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Thank you for posting that Rjay. Lots of sleep deprived work coming tomorrow and Saturday. Up in 6 hours to see more waffling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Is 1996 the top analog for this storm? Nvm it is and interestingly enough we're seeing most of the models upping the ante. I'm very confident the 06z gfs will follow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Wow. Definitely a positive step. Warning criteria to White Plains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HailMan06 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 You know after everything we've been through with the models over the past week I'd be really satisfied with what the Euro depicts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BL03 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 1.4" liquid to SI!?! .... Well, we back on the same rodeo... But in all seriousness this storm has a feeling it may want to impact us more. May not but it will be close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Rjay coming in clutch for y'all. ECMWF had a noticeable shift north on this run. We're still not done trending folks. Take a look at the HRRR. That precip field is massive compared to the globals. Sent from my SM-G925V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 1.4" liquid to SI!?! .... Well, we back on the same rodeo... But in all seriousness this storm has a feeling it may want to impact us more. May not but it will be close. Hope the Nam wins Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Euro looks great, but is there any chance the output is flawed due to the issues tonight? Were the issues with how the model ran or in transmitting the output? The former would be a big deal, while the latter is immaterial, really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfreeeeak Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Euro looks great, but is there any chance the output is flawed due to the issues tonight? Were the issues with how the model ran or in transmitting the output? The former would be a big deal, while the latter is immaterial, really.NOPE "@ryanmaue nope, QPF and snow is accum bucket in each file as time goes on. We're good." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 transmission Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Euro looks great, but is there any chance the output is flawed due to the issues tonight? Were the issues with how the model ran or in transmitting the output? The former would be a big deal, while the latter is immaterial, really.The European had the same data that the NAM and GFS ingested. To be honest, the storm down south is looking more robust than I would have imagined so far. I wouldn't be shocked if we see the precip field expand again during the morning runs. Nyc metro is really back in the game from what we see. Sent from my SM-G925V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 1.2 +" extends all the way to southern Essex county (for nenj members) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BL03 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Good signs down south.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 3z SREF. WOW. Even wetter and further north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seth.P Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Good signs down south.... Capture.PNG Mid-Atlantic is really the place to be for this one; this is their storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 NOPE "@ryanmaue nope, QPF and snow is accum bucket in each file as time goes on. We're good." That's great to hear - thanks! Last thing I want to see is a nice bump up by the Euro and then hear that there was some processing issue with a subroutine that invalidated the run or something like that. Feeling much better with my earlier call of 6-10" for NYC (and between 78 and 80 in NJ and 10-16" between 78 and 195. Heck, that could even be low... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BL03 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 No debate on that. Looks great down there. We just hopeful to get some nice action. Mid-Atlantic is really the place to be for this one; this is their storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Holy crap the Euro looks great especially from the city south. I didn't think it was that good. 18 inches thru east brunswick Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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