jm1220 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 That was a step up from 12z I believe. Hopefully the Euro has another nudge north. I don't expect anything more than 25 miles, but that's all NYC really needs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 This is way harder than 2010. This is like trying to forecast for the Brunswick Cranbury Trenton corridor in the 2010 storm, you knew they weren't getting shutout but at the same time there was risk in only going 3-4 inches because 10-15 was easily possible Seeing the UKMET just now nudge a bit north is encouraging, hopefully the Euro does the same soon. Yeah, I would be massively migrained out if I had to make a forecast for this in NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 I'm amazed the 18Z Para GFS didn't make its way on here yet, of course that is old news now. It did appear wetter than the 18Z operational GFS did Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 I'm amazed the 18Z Para GFS didn't make its way on here yet, of course that is old news now. It did appear wetter than the 18Z operational GFS did Did it get anything to I-84? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 The CMC Ensembles is much better than the OP. The 1" line is north of NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 So this storm is going to be going over 26C water as it travels NE up the southern US coast. Any mets care to chime in what that could mean? I mean, that's almost warm enough for a warm-core storm to form. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 JMA is still looking great Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
F5TornadoF5 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 The CMC Ensembles is much better than the OP. The 1" line is north of NYC. Sounds like ukmet. Good news Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 The JMA is a good hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Even the water off of NY Harbor is nearly 50F. That is INSANE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 The Nam, SREF and JMA haven't backed down yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 The Nam, SREF and JMA haven't backed down yet. Having the UKMET and the Canadian at least in a decent spot isn't bad, either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Having the UKMET and the Canadian at least in a decent spot isn't bad, either. Seeing the Ukie go north was huge. Hopefully the Euro follows. The CMCensembles were great. 12 inches for the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfreeeeak Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Having the UKMET and the Canadian at least in a decent spot isn't bad, either.The UKMET, yes, the canadian is only about 4 or 5 in. in NYC. CMC ensembles were better however. It's getting later and later though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
F5TornadoF5 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 GEFS are a bit wetter than op Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Honestly, the gradient is so tight that NYC can get 5" or 20". The radar looks amazing. Anybody who thinks that the storm is over is insane considering that a 20 mile shift can make all the difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 NMM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 The Nam, SREF and JMA haven't backed down yet. Throw in the UKIE and that cannot be denied. This is not done by a long shot. I feel like the difference between my home and my work place could be insane. We actually have snow on the ground still from last Sunday believe it or not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Honestly, the gradient is so tight that NYC can get 5" or 20". The radar looks amazing. Anybody who thinks that the storm is over is insane considering that a 20 mile shift can make all the difference. There's definitely a lot of convection over the Gulf Coast, and hopefully that helps. There were some storms near me early this morning when the ULL dug through, but the real activity fired over E TX and LA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mulen Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 sst's are silly warm the moisture in this storm is robust and mixing is problematic with this setup ,very transitant cold high to the north very tough solution oh well . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Think my post on the 2/6 post mortem got deleted, probably for being too long. Here's the summary, since quite a few people were trying to recall how steep the gradient was. Don't think this one will be that steep, but it could come close. Simply moving down I-95, here's the progression of snowfall: 0.0" in Central Park, 1/2" in Newark, 1" in Elizabeth, 4" in Rahway, 6" in Metuchen, 8" in New Brunswick, 13" in Trenton, 19" in Mount Holly, 28" in Philly and 30" in Baltimore. Unprecedented, especially the 0-28" over the ~90 miles from NYC to Philly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 There's definitely a lot of convection over the Gulf Coast, and hopefully that helps. There were some storms near me early this morning when the ULL dug through, but the real activity fired over E TX and LA. The best I'm gonna get is a squall line in Key West tomorrow afternoon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mriceyman Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Anybody gona do pbp?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 NMM If it weren't so late, I think this would excite a lot of people. Looks like a HUGE hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HailMan06 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Hmm posters in the SE subforum saying the surface low is hanging back longer, being slower/further se than what globals had a few days ago. What could that mean for us? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Hmm posters in the SE subforum saying the surface low is hanging back longer, being slower/further se than what globals had a few days ago. What could that mean for us? EURO just initialized on SV it isn't out yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HailMan06 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 EURO just initialized on SV it isn't out yetNo based on current mesoanalysis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mulen Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 How many times it sleeted for hours on end killing totals because the low wrapped up all that above normal warm water seen it to many times .The marine layer can be friend or foe and that is my take. i'm probably wrong but you never know.Sometimes even if the precip field works out it never goes accordingly this why mother nature is so humbling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 EURO @ 6 hours the vort looks farther N already compared to the 12z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mriceyman Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 EURO @ 6 hours the vort looks farther N already compared to the 12z runI feel like last couple runs of most models were N to start than ended up about the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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