danstorm Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 The RGEM was actually better than that I think Just look at that area of 24-40"... eye popping Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Looks pretty similar to past runs to me. I hope this works out for you guys, I really do, and it still can with a slight bump north (for many of you anyway, the far north/west crew are out of it). Having another catastrophe like 2/6/10 would just be obscene. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 12z and 00z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jan21 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 here you go cmc snow totals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 I'm not forecasting this event thankfully but I would be terrified in NYC that the dynamics of the low hang on just a few hours longer or the close off is a tad late or reopens and that crap over TTN makes it an additional 50-70 miles northeast. This isn't as cut and dried as 2/6/10 where the confluence was stronger and you could be pretty sure the models were right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 If I was Pazzo, I'd figure out some way to get home to VA. This could be another 1996 down in the Blue Ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 This really is Feb 2010 all over again (if the NAM is wrong). I remember thinking that although something like that was really annoying, it would probably not happen again to that extreme (Boston getting hammered while we are left out is fairly common. Philly getting 20-30" while we get a few inches is NOT something you'd expect to ever see again). However, this is going to be a really fun storm to follow.....some place is going to get over 40" I think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 If I was Pazzo, I'd figure out some way to get home to VA. This could be another 1996 down in the Blue Ridge. I'll have my parents take lots of pictures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ScottB Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Middlesex county has 12 shades on the cmc. Thats absurd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 This really is Feb 2010 all over again (if the NAM is wrong). I remember thinking that although something like that was really annoying, it would probably not happen again to that extreme (Boston getting hammered while we are left out is fairly common. Philly getting 20-30" while we get a few inches is NOT something you'd expect to ever see again) It's just mind-numblingly painful. I'm truly nauseated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 12z and 00z Ahh, that does look a little better for NYC. Much better for Philly and central NJ-their snow totals pretty much doubled. I'm not sure anymore this will be a "dynamic" snow system where VA/MD get blasted and then it falls apart over NJ the way some models had it earlier. It'll probably be a huge wall of snow east to west that hits the dry air wall somewhere and comes to a complete stop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 12z and 00z Definitely an improvement. Not sure why anyone would say it went south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Parts of Brooklyn are close to a foot of snow with this run. I'm not throwing in the towel. A 20 mile shift north greatly changes things for most of NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 This really is Feb 2010 all over again (if the NAM is wrong). I remember thinking that although something like that was really annoying, it would probably not happen again to that extreme (Boston getting hammered while we are left out is fairly common. Philly getting 20-30" while we get a few inches is NOT something you'd expect to ever see again) Yea, well perhaps its just the particular location of NYC relative to where storms form and track, high pressure systems... that make it likelier here than elsewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mriceyman Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Middlesex county has 12 shades on the cmc. Thats absurd.Amazing how every 10 miles could mean such different outcomes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfreeeeak Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 here you go cmc snow totals 4 inches...take it and run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 here you go cmc snow totals Geez, maybe 10-12" in Long Beach, 4" in Glen Cove, an inch or two if lucky in Bridgeport. Keep in mind, the snow gradient is probably even sharper than seen on the map because the northern edge tends to be virga due to the dry air at low levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Parts of Brooklyn are close to a foot of snow with this run. I'm not throwing in the towel. A 20 mile shift north greatly changes things for most of NYC. SI is over a foot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Navgem is north and gives NYC 12 + Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Yea, well perhaps its just the particular location of NYC relative to where storms form and track, high pressure systems... that make it likelier here than elsewhere. NYC is a transitional area in the Northeast between southern, moisture loaded systems predominating and northern stream clipper type systems that bomb off the coast. NYC can get nailed by both, but also shafted by both and NYC is often on the have/have nots line. There are some rare seasons like 2003-04 where NYC gets lucky and the I-80 corridor gets the lion share of the winter weather, but they're few and far between. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 The only all snow event i know of with a gradient like that over NYC was the 79 PD event I think JFK had 7 and lga 2 There was a steep gradient in this region, but not between JFK and LGA. It was a little north and east of both. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 The UKMET still looks like it's nearly double digits into even NYC and the Bronx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
F5TornadoF5 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Ukmet looks pretty good too. Maybe not as great as last run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Ukie gives NYC 12+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfreeeeak Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Ukie gives NYC 12+do you have a map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 With an accumulation gradient as severe as this, we are going to have a really high level of disparity for NYC from model to model and run to run. This will truly be a nowcast storm...unless everything folds to the NAM. If you live in the Metro, there is still potential for a blizzard. The UKMET still looks like it's nearly double digits into even NYC and the Bronx Navgem is north and gives NYC 12 + Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Hmm, I thought Central Park had a foot from that? Anyway, what a mess for NYC forecasters tonight. God help them. It just seems like big NYC snow events aren't "done deals" like they can be days in advance in Boston or DC. DC has been pegged to get nailed for the past 3-4 days, and Juno as well as Nemo were pegged to nail Boston for several days prior. NYC seems to be on the cliff's edge one way or another in these. This is way harder than 2010. This is like trying to forecast for the Brunswick Cranbury Trenton corridor in the 2010 storm, you knew they weren't getting shutout but at the same time there was risk in only going 3-4 inches because 10-15 was easily possible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mriceyman Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 With an accumulation gradient as severe as this, we are going to have a really high level of disparity for NYC from model to model and run to run. This will truly be a nowcast storm...unless everything folds to the NAM. If you live in the Metro, there is still potential for a blizzard.Well 5" with 40 mph winds for 3 hours is a blizzard so totals dont have to be outrageous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 do you have a map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poleshiftnow Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Latest sref is way north http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/SREF21PRSUS_21z/srefloop.html#picture Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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