IsentropicLift Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 GFS and RGEM tell me the NAM is on crack, and the 2/6/10 repeat scenario is still very much on the table. Tonight would have been the night to see a move north. I guess tomorrow 12z gives another shot, but time's really running out. The NAM could easily collapse at 6z or 12z, it's done that before. Look at the massively amped runs it had for Juno last year for an example. Convective feedback problems may have been an issue for one or two cycles, but models repeatedly and consistently jumping the low east and out to sea means there's something to that idea. I guess I'll wait for the Euro later, but 4-8" for NYC seems like the best bet here. 4" in the Bronx, 8" in Staten Island. If the GFS shifts south again, that may be generous. Honestly, I don't think we'll know for sure until around this time tomorrow night. 20 miles in either direction makes such a huge difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Very tough forecast for the NYC metro for sure, both the GFS and NAM have been holding their ground on their solutions. I think nowcasting will play a significant role with this storm for the metro area since a slight shift north or south depending on the model will yield significantly different results. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bboughton Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 I am pulling my hair out, such model disagreement so close to the event. At this time I keep the 6"-12" but anything can happen. Reminds me of last year's snowaggenian then the GFS won, but that storm had different dynamics. Time for the ECMWF. I would forecast between 0-18" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 The GGEM looks pretty darn good to me, again based off the black and white maps 48hrs out. Yea, they really need to join us in the 21st Century with those maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 The gradient is so tight that it can go either way It can, but it's becoming hard to ignore at this point that outside of the unreliable NAM and the 18z GFS today, significant precip can't really make it north of I-80, or the Bronx/LI Sound. The 6z and 12z runs tomorrow are the last chance to see any real movements, and I'd say at this point we're working with 50 miles of wiggle room either way. Verbatim, this would still be a nice storm at home in Long Beach with maybe 10" there on this GFS run, while the North Shore has 4 or 5" and the CT coast nothing. I do buy the very sharp gradient idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 I would forecast between 0-18" Typical that NYC is always a battleground for big storms! Drives me nuts. Wish we could have model consensus for one way or another (a la DC and Boston). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yhbrooklyn Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 The gradient is so tight that it can go either wayIt's nuts. GFS is 7" or so for me and I can reach across to the Jersey shore for 20. :arrow: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Okay finally got going on SV. It shows a 2/6/10 type gradient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Hour 36, cmc goes wacko.as far as I can go.but low wants to go easy,meanwhile, looks like the should be a low tucking at coast.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 I would forecast between 0-18" Yeah well you really can't do that when your dealing with sanitation, you need to be a little more specific. But you can certainly outline the different possibilities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 The GGEM is so far South that Philly is almost in jeopardy. Major cut off North of Sandy Hook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 It's nuts. GFS is 7" or so for me and I can reach across to the Jersey shore for 20. :arrow: GFS is around 7-10 for us and 10+ for my aunt in Staten Island. This is exactly like 2010 to a tee. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Well something has to give and it's likely not going to be tonight. The only model that gives anyone North of say Rt 80 significant snow is the NAM and we all know what that means. Not staying up for the Euro. If I happen to wake up overnight i'll report, but I would be absolutely shocked if it came North more than a tick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 The GGEM is so far South that Philly is almost in jeopardy. Major cut off North of Sandy Hook. What??? The GGEM is much farther N compared to the 12z run, update your maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Well something has to give and it's likely not going to be tonight. The only model that gives anyone North of say Rt 80 significant snow is the NAM and we all know what that means. Not staying up for the Euro. If I happen to wake up overnight i'll report, but I would be absolutely shocked if it came North more than a tick. Agreed, as they said on the radio show, the "varsity" team has somewhat of a consensus. Tomorrow brings another day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 It can, but it's becoming hard to ignore at this point that outside of the unreliable NAM and the 18z GFS today, significant precip can't really make it north of I-80, or the Bronx/LI Sound. The 6z and 12z runs tomorrow are the last chance to see any real movements, and I'd say at this point we're working with 50 miles of wiggle room either way. Verbatim, this would still be a nice storm at home in Long Beach with maybe 10" there on this GFS run, while the North Shore has 4 or 5" and the CT coast nothing. I do buy the very sharp gradient idea. The only all snow event i know of with a gradient like that over NYC was the 79 PD event I think JFK had 7 and lga 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Well something has to give and it's likely not going to be tonight. The only model that gives anyone North of say Rt 80 significant snow is the NAM and we all know what that means. Not staying up for the Euro. If I happen to wake up overnight i'll report, but I would be absolutely shocked if it came North more than a tick. A 25 mile south shift on the GFS basically means 2/6/10 again, and that's about how far south 0z shifted from 18z, so that's possible. Sounds like the GGEM went south also. Not good news for the NYC area. The Euro I'd expect would stay about as is-at 12z, 6" of snow basically reached the south shore of Long Island. If it ticks south, I'd go with an advisory storm for NYC. The NAM being on its own like this is essentially meaningless to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 So which is it with the GGEM... North or South?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxman Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 The only all snow event i know of with a gradient like that over NYC was the 79 PD event I think JFK had 7 and lga 2 JM's dead on re Feb 2010. 7-8 in central NJ, 2 feet in PHL. This looks just like that, as modeled. But as with all things in history, probably more rhyme than copy. The gradient seems real, where it sets up exactly is the question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jan21 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 i will post the CMC snowfall map when it finishes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 The only all snow event i know of with a gradient like that over NYC was the 79 PD event I think JFK had 7 and lga 2 Hmm, I thought Central Park had a foot from that? Anyway, what a mess for NYC forecasters tonight. God help them. It just seems like big NYC snow events aren't "done deals" like they can be days in advance in Boston or DC. DC has been pegged to get nailed for the past 3-4 days, and Juno as well as Nemo were pegged to nail Boston for several days prior. NYC seems to be on the cliff's edge one way or another in these. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 GFS is around 7-10 for us and 10+ for my aunt in Staten Island. This is exactly like 2010 to a tee. People say SI had 7 inches but I don't believe it: I am right across from the Outerbridge and we had about 3-4. At this point the NAM is on its own and is obviously wrong. And no one believes the SREFS. And now the storm is trending south. The writing is on the wall. Expect Euro to go south as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 People say SI had 7 inches but I don't believe it: I am right across from the Outerbridge and we had about 3-4. At this point the NAM is on its own and is obviously wrong. And no one believes the SREFS. And now the storm is trending south. The writing is on the wall. Expect Euro to go south as well. Writing on the wall with the gradient so tight? No way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Hmm, I thought Central Park had a foot from that? Anyway, what a mess for NYC forecasters tonight. God help them. It just seems like big NYC snow events aren't "done deals" like they can be days in advance in Boston or DC. DC has been pegged to get nailed for the past 3-4 days, and Juno as well as Nemo were pegged to nail Boston for several days prior. NYC seems to be on the cliff's edge one way or another in these. Yea I posted about that earlier. Usually a nightmare forecast during big storms here as always in the middle between DC and SNE specials. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizz Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stlirish Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Can't believe people are giving up. The gradient is tight and I have a hard time believing the global models will nail this thing right on the mileage. I think it comes north. Don't underestimate these warm waters! Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 The RGEM was actually better than that I think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Cmc snow maps are actually better then last run lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 GEM-LAM total snowfall through 18Z Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 You guys still have a shot. That is a massive convective complex down south. I have to think that may still throw a wrench or two in the models. Only thing set in stone is that DC is going to get absolutely destroyed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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