NYCGreg Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Looks like it went south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 That's not the feel good story we were hoping for, that's worse than 18Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rygar Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 So incredibly frustrating. We all knew better with the NAM, but sill held out hope. Sigh. Good radio show tonight, hope everyone is listening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 South of Driscoll bridge special Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 At hour 42, I'm not so sure about that low placement.. I think it should be at the coast not jumping line that.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 3 inches for the city verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 http://www.weather.com/weather/5day/l/11235:4:US TWC updated my area to 9-15 inches TWC map - more bullish than most (8-12" from 80 down to 7, including NYC and 12-18" from 78 down to 195; very similar to what Nick Gregory just showed) and they did very well on last year's "blizzard." They also have really beefed up the quality of their on air staff and discussions. They're doing a nice job since the WUnderground takeover/merger: were showing some fairly detailed discussions (with some nice graphics) of the various models and what to look for with the storm evolution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 2 lows on the GFS. It jumps towards the convection. Can we really believe this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 I know I am stating the obvious but: RGEM + GFS combo > NAM + SREF combo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 2 lows on the GFS. It jumps towards the convection. Can we really believe this? Why the heck not its exactly why Juno drifted 50 miles to the east just last winter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scooter13 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 NAM is very seldom right, best to trust GFS and EURO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowBlitzkrieg Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 2 lows on the GFS. It jumps towards the convection. Can we really believe this? that massive pocket of 48+ just doesn't seem possible, the GFS is going nuts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 We'll have to agree to disagree. I think it's clearly north - not by a lot, but by 25-50mi. But since we're on the fringe every 25mi is a few tenths of extra precipitation. I'm not focused on its precipitation depiction because that's what models are worst at. Give us a low in the right spot and the rest will take care of itself. It's not north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Question to the Mets: are facts on the ground with actual storm progression right now reflective of the Euro/GFS/RGEM scenario? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jan21 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 the 00z gfs just came out. even more of a southern track. Not jumping to conclusions but 3-6 inches will prob be posted tomorrow if cmc and ecmwf follow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchel Volk Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 I am pulling my hair out, such model disagreement so close to the event. At this time I keep the 6"-12" but anything can happen. Reminds me of last year's snowaggenian then the GFS won, but that storm had different dynamics. Time for the ECMWF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 the 00z gfs just came out. even more of a southern track. Not jumping to conclusions but 3-6 inches will prob be posted tomorrow if cmc and ecmwf follow hmm. looks like the 2010 storm part two Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 So, if I drive a little over an hour south of here, I could go from 2" of snow to 20" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yhbrooklyn Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 18z vs 00z total precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Looks like most of coastal jersey still in good shape. Still time to come north. Gfs is printing out some outlandish numbers. Could be having trouble Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 GFS and RGEM tell me the NAM is on crack, and the 2/6/10 repeat scenario is still very much on the table. Tonight would have been the night to see a move north. I guess tomorrow 12z gives another shot, but time's really running out. The NAM could easily collapse at 6z or 12z, it's done that before. Look at the massively amped runs it had for Juno last year for an example. Convective feedback problems may have been an issue for one or two cycles, but models repeatedly and consistently jumping the low east and out to sea means there's something to that idea. I guess I'll wait for the Euro later, but 4-8" for NYC seems like the best bet here. 4" in the Bronx, 8" in Staten Island. If the GFS shifts south again, that may be generous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jan21 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 CMC starting to come out now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/GFS13PA_0z/gfsloop.html This site is good for looking at the GFS. Basically, 1.0" liquid touches the south shore barrier islands, down to 0.10" (likely really virga or some flurries) in White Plains. A similar shift south from 18z on the GFS next run makes it essentially 2/6/10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 The gradient is so tight that it can go either way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Hour 12 cmc is further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Based on the crappy black and white maps but the GGEM looks North to me through 36 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 The gradient is so tight that it can go either way I would not toss in the towel until the 12 z runs tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 The GGEM looks pretty darn good to me, again based off the black and white maps 48hrs out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stlirish Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 A small 30-50 mile shift north is money for NYC. You can't live and die by each model run so a blend is your friend! Honestly, NWS, TWC, and Mitchel's forecasts are very solid at this point. Nowcast and trend down or up depending on banding. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 GFS and RGEM tell me the NAM is on crack, and the 2/6/10 repeat scenario is still very much on the table. Tonight would have been the night to see a move north. I guess tomorrow 12z gives another shot, but time's really running out. The NAM could easily collapse at 6z or 12z, it's done that before. Look at the massively amped runs it had for Juno last year for an example. Convective feedback problems may have been an issue for one or two cycles, but models repeatedly and consistently jumping the low east and out to sea means there's something to that idea. I guess I'll wait for the Euro later, but 4-8" for NYC seems like the best bet here. 4" in the Bronx, 8" in Staten Island. If the GFS shifts south again, that may be generous. Honestly, I don't think we'll know for sure until around this time tomorrow night. 20 miles in either direction makes such a huge difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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