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1/23-24 Randytastic Snowstorm Part 2 STORM MODE THREAD


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  On 1/23/2016 at 12:55 AM, jm1220 said:

Look at the radar south of Cape May-Intense banding down there. That's where the huge accumulations will come from later. 

Isn't the banding much earlier than expected? That might be in the area by midnight or even earlier. The news outlets I watched said that the first flakes would start at midnight.  :lol:

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  On 1/23/2016 at 1:14 AM, UlsterCountySnowZ said:

Yeaaaaa... So HRRR had northern precip shield, albeit it's Virga, reaching NYC at around midnight.... It's now 8pm and NYC is under Virga... Is her a single model Out here that has a clue?!?!

Some of the news outlets for NYC are still forecasting a foot of snow  :lol:

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Through 0z, the 12z GFS has been verifying better than the 12z NAM when it comes to QPF in parts of North Carolina, Virginia, Maryland, Delaware, and Pennsylvania.

 

The NAM has done better in Charlottesville and Richmond.

 

The GFS has done better in Baltimore, Harrisburg, Raleigh, Roanoke, Sterling, Washington, DC and Wilmington (DE).

 

In general, the NAM was too aggressive in boosting QPF through 0z. It's still uncertain whether this is merely a matter of timing or an overall better forecast.

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  On 1/23/2016 at 1:02 AM, brooklynwx99 said:

Isn't the banding much earlier than expected? That might be in the area by midnight or even earlier. The news outlets I watched said that the first flakes would start at midnight.  :lol:

It's going to take its time moving north. There's dry air to overcome and the strong lift will take a while to reach NYC, but it will get there. 

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21z SREF has over 2" liquid up to White Plains and the CT coast. 

 

The newest HRRR I saw has 18-24" snow through 22z tomorrow for much of central NJ and a good part of Long Island. 12" gets into NW NJ and about up to White Plains, then east from there into LI Sound, with still hours more snow to go in the CCB. 

 

http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/Welcome.cgi?dsKey=hrrr_jet&domain=z3&run_time=22+Jan+2016+-+22Z

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  On 1/23/2016 at 1:38 AM, winterwarlock said:

and why wouldn't they...that's what a lot of models are showing..around a foot maybe a bit more...only weenies follow the nam lock stock and barrell

Other models besides the NAM are showing over a foot of snow now in NYC. I'd go with 12-18" in NYC-if the NAM does happen to be right, there will be spots to 2 feet. 

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  On 1/23/2016 at 1:20 AM, donsutherland1 said:

Through 0z, the 12z GFS has been verifying better than the 12z NAM when it comes to QPF in parts of North Carolina, Virginia, Maryland, Delaware, and Pennsylvania.

 

The NAM has done better in Charlottesville and Richmond.

 

The GFS has done better in Baltimore, Harrisburg, Raleigh, Roanoke, Sterling, Washington, DC and Wilmington (DE).

 

In general, the NAM was too aggressive in boosting QPF through 0z. It's still uncertain whether this is merely a matter of timing or an overall better forecast.

great post Don, certaintly interesting stuff...

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By the way, I think it's great how magnanimous you are. This is the type of storm that helps bring out weather lovers for the future, and in twenty years, they'll say, "I remember when I was ten and we had that big storm!"

  On 1/22/2016 at 11:40 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Glad you guys are making out as well as I had anticipated  yesterday.

 

Final calls:

 

http://easternmassweather.blogspot.com

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