mikemost Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Was such a pressure drop as depicted off the coast modeled to occur this early? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 On 1/22/2016 at 7:38 PM, SnoSki14 said: I can't believe the CRAS actually show a realistic depiction. Or you could put it the other way and say it can't possibly be correct so therefore anything that resembles it is wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dhaulagiri1 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 On 1/22/2016 at 7:34 PM, Morris said: What does the CRAS show? about 1.5" for the City, 2" C NJ, less N, resolution is pretty crappy (I'm looking at NCEP grab and go images) On 1/22/2016 at 7:38 PM, SnoSki14 said: I can't believe the CRAS actually show a realistic depiction. I kinda does oddly enough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxWeatherwatcher Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 On 1/22/2016 at 7:36 PM, Rittenhouse said: Majority of ensemble members over 2 feet now for KLGA. Wow. They keep increasing every update,unheard of really in all context of weather history.If this happens it might be a all time record for a 1 day snowfall in and around n.y.c,considering 5 inches was only forecast 13 hours ago.JUST CRAZY! lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rittenhouse Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 On 1/22/2016 at 7:37 PM, The 4 Seasons said: Can anyone give a brief description on how the models looked running up to the event and right at go time for 2/6/10 and 2/9/10 and how it compares to this? NYC is where Philly was for the 2/6/10 event. Most models were in the 8-12" range, with the NAM hinting that Philly could end up with well over a foot. Most models had NYC in the 2-5" range. The gradient was sharper than expected, but for those near the cutoff (like Philly) the totals were MUCH higher than expected (KPHL ended with 28"). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 12z SPC WRF loop. Good to try and pinpoint where some of the heaviest banding might be. Right over SE NY and NNJ lol http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mpyle/spcprod/12/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 I'm hearing reports on Twitter ( a pretty respectful Met in philly) that reports around the area (not philly itself) is that Virga is surprisingly not occurring despite low dew points? Can someone with a little more knowledge explain.. Why this would be the case.. And if it shows that the confluence may be weaker? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUMG11 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 On 1/22/2016 at 7:37 PM, danstorm said: Not sure I buy the ridic numbers mets jersey but I remember the ARW and NMM nailing banding during the 1/12/11 Noreaster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 On 1/22/2016 at 7:42 PM, IsentropicLift said: 12z SPC WRF loop. Good to try and pinpoint where some of the heaviest banding might be. Right over SE NY and NNJ lol http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mpyle/spcprod/12/ That would keep the few us slightly above 84 happy, it also looks consistent with SREF plumes and the other short terms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morch Madness Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 On 1/22/2016 at 7:43 PM, UlsterCountySnowZ said: I'm hearing reports on Twitter ( a pretty respectful Met in philly) that reports around the area (not philly itself) is that Virga is surprisingly not occurring despite low see points? Can someone with a little more knowledge explain.. Why this would be a case.. And if it shows that the confluence may be weaker? Who? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 On 1/22/2016 at 7:43 PM, UlsterCountySnowZ said: I'm hearing reports on Twitter ( a pretty respectful Met in philly) that reports around the area (not philly itself) is that Virga is surprisingly not occurring despite low see points? Can someone with a little more knowledge explain.. Why this would be a case.. And if it shows that the confluence may be weaker? 29/4 in EWR, it is cold and dry, but not too dry... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 The NAM is way more amped up. As a result the snow is coming in slower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikemost Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 quick bump on this in case anybody can chime in - i'll let the pbp roll with the NAM - thanks. On 1/22/2016 at 7:40 PM, mikemost said: Was such a pressure drop as depicted off the coast modeled to occur this early? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Moderate snow almost up to the city by 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 On 1/22/2016 at 7:44 PM, RUMG11 said: On 1/22/2016 at 7:37 PM, danstorm said: Not sure I buy the ridic numbers mets jersey but I remember the ARW and NMM nailing banding during the 1/12/11 Noreaster Oh I buy the Mets jersey all day long... LGM!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted January 22, 2016 Author Share Posted January 22, 2016 Just a quick update to keep everyone in the loop, will probably unpin this and pin the obs thread after the 18z models are done. Obv feel free to post all the real short term stuff in here afterwards if you want but they should be ok in the obs thread too (just dont go overboard). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Insane QPF bullseye West of DC in VA. Even more intense than 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 On 1/22/2016 at 7:40 PM, mikemost said: Was such a pressure drop as depicted off the coast modeled to occur this early? I'm also rather curious about the placement. I thought that the biggest pressure falls would be off SC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 On 1/22/2016 at 7:50 PM, BxEngine said: Just a quick update to keep everyone in the loop, will probably unpin this and pin the obs thread after the 18z models are done. Obv feel free to post all the real short term stuff in here afterwards if you want but they should be ok in the obs thread too (just dont go overboard). Could we please have two pinned threads and keep the other one strictly for obs? Otherwise I think valuable posts will become buried quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rittenhouse Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 On 1/22/2016 at 7:43 PM, UlsterCountySnowZ said: I'm hearing reports on Twitter ( a pretty respectful Met in philly) that reports around the area (not philly itself) is that Virga is surprisingly not occurring despite low dew points? Can someone with a little more knowledge explain.. Why this would be the case.. And if it shows that the confluence may be weaker? BWI reporting light snow, dewpoint 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Heavy snow into EWR by midnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mulen Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 I retired my snow goggles donated the shovel and ice pick, snow blower , to the snow lovers hall of fame going through withdrawals,but my spirit is with ya. Been around here going back to the twc days where we were kicked out 20 yrs ago damn we've been some stormy and boring winters together.Enjoy were lunatics with a passion most don't understand.maybe i'll chase a storm in february somewhere who knows. see ya Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted January 22, 2016 Author Share Posted January 22, 2016 On 1/22/2016 at 7:52 PM, IsentropicLift said: Could we please have two pinned threads and keep the other one strictly for obs? Otherwise I think valuable posts will become buried quickly. Thats fine ill prob keep this one going until the event has fully started. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Nam has heavy snow into the city before 7am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 This is going to be a monster. Closes off a second contour over Western VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Heavy snow from HPN south by 2-3AM. This run might actually be even more wet than 12z if you can actually believe that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 The ULL is so much stronger, and that's forcing everything North. Look how insane the winds are at 850mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe4alb Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 heights look a bit better, actually seems to be digging more than 12z, amazing..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Moderate snow makes it to just South of Beacon Bridge by sunrise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 From Pittsburgh to Long Island just an absolute crush job tomorrow morning. It's impossible to know for sure what the rates would be in such intense banding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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