Rjay Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 On 1/22/2016 at 3:19 AM, jm1220 said: OK. That's a step in the right direction at least, if that's a nudge north from 18z. It's barely north if at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowBlitzkrieg Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 On 1/22/2016 at 3:15 AM, Snow88 said: http://www.weather.com/weather/5day/l/11235:4:US TWC updated my area to 9-15 inches they have 14" for the city and most of LI as their forecast on the actual channel now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Rgem a smidge south. Goodnight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 On 1/22/2016 at 3:20 AM, Rjay said: It's barely north if at all. I don't agree with that - it's north, and the location of the low - just east of Ocean City - is a spot that generally gets good snows into NYC. 2/2010, for instance, was south of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 RGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Mitchell Volk coming up on Channel 5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 On 1/22/2016 at 3:21 AM, SnowBlitzkrieg said: they have 14" for the city and most of LI as their forecast on the actual channel now And twc runs conservative... They had only 8-12 for NYC with Juno last year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 One massive difference between the 00Z RGEM and 18Z RGEM is the SLP. It's stronger and more tucked in through HR 36 on the 00Z RGEM. The 18Z had a weaker SLP and less tucked in on the same timestamp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Just a classic mid-lat cyclone You don't have to be studying meteorology to know this is a thing of beauty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 The RGEM does not look great to me. It goes further out with each run, yes, and it is going to snow here.....but it does not look like an improvement Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 On 1/22/2016 at 3:23 AM, IntenseBlizzard2014 said: One massive difference between the 00Z RGEM and 18Z RGEM is the SLP. It's stronger and more tucked in through HR 36 on the 00Z RGEM. The 18Z had a weaker SLP and less tucked in on the same timestamp. The RGEM sucks at 06 and 18z I always only use its 12 and 00 runs. The RGEM isn't terribly different than the euro in NYC itself but i think it screws places like TTN and the Philly vicinity more than the UKIE or Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 I'll go further, I think that RGEM looks great. 988mb off of Ocean City? I'll roll the dice with that every time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Is the GFS using ingested data also? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 On 1/22/2016 at 3:25 AM, David-LI said: Is the GFS using ingested data also? I believe so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovintheWhiteFluff Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 On 1/22/2016 at 3:25 AM, David-LI said: Is the GFS using ingested data also? yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 I'd rather have the RGEM at this range but it's not critical until 12z run tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 On 1/22/2016 at 3:28 AM, Rjay said: 0z rgem That's the 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 On 1/22/2016 at 3:26 AM, Rjay said: 18z rgem We'll have to agree to disagree. I think it's clearly north - not by a lot, but by 25-50mi. But since we're on the fringe every 25mi is a few tenths of extra precipitation. I'm not focused on its precipitation depiction because that's what models are worst at. Give us a low in the right spot and the rest will take care of itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 On 1/22/2016 at 3:29 AM, pazzo83 said: That's the 18z. Yea I'm going to PC. I hate this phone crap. Hold on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwcMan Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 You can see the dry air eating away at the northern shield on that rgem loop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 The fact that it's tucked in means the band was going to pivot into the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Man DT talking smack (radio show) about what the RGEM shows for NYC, lol. Why do some people get pleasure out of that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Start time around 1:00pm for the SW DC Suburbs on GFS, slightly quicker than last run. (Actually I meant for this to go in the MA Forum shoot) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 because rgem is a far R superior snow model than the nam On 1/22/2016 at 3:35 AM, ILoveWinter said: On 1/22/2016 at 3:35 AM, ILoveWinter said: Man DT talking smack about what the RGEM shows for NYC, lol. Why do some people get pleasure out of that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 The ULL is elongating on the GFS which is exactly what you want. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 On 1/22/2016 at 3:36 AM, DTWXRISK said: because rgem is a far R superior snow model than the nam On 1/22/2016 at 3:36 AM, DTWXRISK said: because rgem is a far R superior snow model than the nam Very true, just seemed you took some pleasure out of it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 No go on the GFS. Very similar to 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 DT not like the look for the north areas on the GFS per radio show Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 On 1/22/2016 at 3:43 AM, IsentropicLift said: No go on the GFS. Very similar to 18zTBF, this means the 18z wasn't a blip. The question isn't whether we get NAMed, it's whether we're on the good side of the death-gradient. Every run that puts us on the good side increases the chances of heavy snow.As to whether we get 1' or 2'... Man given where we started from 1' will feel like 2'. Edit - and just like that, the next frame puts us on the wrong side of the death-gradient. Nuts. This is the risk... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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