BxEngine Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Getting closer to crunch time now. Although we arent expecting the totals that our neighbors to the southwest are, many in this forum have the potential to be impacted by a warning criteria snowfall. Because of the very sharp cutoff, some will be left high and dry. To try to keep this thread informative and to avoid issues, we will treat it as a storm mode thread, even though the entire forum isnt in storm mode. The basic rules as posted by Randy in the MA thread: Members, Due to the high activity with the pending event, AmericanWx is entering in what is called Storm mode. Additional temporary moderators are added and the normal warn and suspend protocols are removed. Moderators will now have the power to automatically remove your posts and or suspend you without warning. Moderators will create ONE thread that you may mix banter and weather in. KEEP ALL BANTER in the banter thread ONLY, not this one. Please see below the new policies/rules that are put into affect under Storm Mode: 1. Cross thread trolling will not be permitted on the weather side. If you are in a region other than your own with the sole purpose of starting trouble, you will be suspended without question. 2. Model threads will be cleared of unrelated discussion, empty "smiley posts", "OMG!!" personal attacks, and analysis without any basis. Even the most basic and rudimentary analysis would be appreciated. 3. In model threads, repetitive questions such as “where is it going" "will it hit my house tomorrow at 11:04pm?…..” etc will be deleted. 4. Please respect the professionals that post here. They will make forecasts as they are comfortable but continued pestering or badgering of them with "where is the storm going, how are the winds for..?" will result in the quickest exit from this board. We will not be tolerant of abusive or trolling behavior. 5. If you post a forecast, please have some sound reasoning behind it. IMBY forecasts also known as wishcasts will likely end up in OT or deleted. 6. DO NOT link threads that have nothing to do with weather or weather forecasting from any other board. Do not link threads from other boards that contain cross feuding or dealing with personal issues. Keep rooting for the north trend. And RJay would like to remind you all that the NAM isnt a real model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Just to keep my NW friends in the loop, I finally checked GEFS and they are significantly better, cutoff is around Sullivan/ulster on most members, hue increase from 12z... The trend is our friend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 To UlsterCountySnow, the thread got locked when I tried to reply but there is a tight gradient on the GEFS through Rockland and Orange counties. It looks to be maybe under .5 up that way? Just read on twitter that the new Parallel Euro run is out and it's further south than the 12z operational was. I know you were asking about that model last night, so that's the latest update for that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 18z GEFS Members. Look really nice. http://synoptic.envsci.rutgers.edu/dougsimo/GEFSIndiesUSPrecip18054.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 To UlsterCountySnow, the thread got locked when I tried to reply but there is a tight gradient on the GEFS through Rockland and Orange counties. It looks to be maybe under .5 up that way? Just read on twitter that the new Parallel Euro run is out and it's further south than the 12z operational was. I know you were asking about that model last night, so that's the latest update for that Keep in mind, however, that the paraEuro is still a 12Z model. As you get closer to the event, that starts to matter; the off hour runs are using fresher information. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 This should encourage everyone in this forum, especially since we're still over 24 hrs out 12z 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I'll take e3 and an e12 with a side of e6 and e13. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SleetStormNJ Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 18z GEFS Members. Look really nice. http://synoptic.envsci.rutgers.edu/dougsimo/GEFSIndiesUSPrecip18054.gif Several major hits in a few of those members. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 This should encourage everyone in this forum, especially since we're still over 24 hrs out 12z image.png 18zimage.png The outliers have less rather than more...Very encouraging, if 0z continues the trend things get very interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Thats an incredible difference between between the GFS and the GEFS. WOW. blown away! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUMG11 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Anyone have the para Euro figures? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Biggest take away in improvement on the 18z gefs is there are no misses for NYC and li. That huge meaning a wiff is pretty much of the table Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Parallel Euro has 1 inch for the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUMG11 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Parallel Euro has 1 inch for the city. How about PHL and South Jersey / ACY, if you don't mind my asking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 How about PHL and South Jersey / ACY, if you don't mind my asking.8-10 PHL. Cutoff line cuts through Monmouth.2 feet west of ACY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yhbrooklyn Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Parallel Euro has 1 inch for the city.Precip or snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Precip or snow? Snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Precip or snow? Snow. It barely scraped our subforun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 18z JMA is still showing a lot of snow for many areas. This model never wavered at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yhbrooklyn Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Snow. It barely scraped our subforun.Wonderful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 JMA is 10-15mm max. That's not a whole lotta snow.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Does anyone have the total precip for the JMA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowBlitzkrieg Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 was the euro para the 12z or the 00z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Wonderful. I really wouldn't worry about the PARA it really has not agreed with the OP at all. Again I said it this morning I don't think the EURO has it for this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
F5TornadoF5 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 JMA is 10-15 max. That's not a whole lotta snow.. That's only 6hr frame total. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 was the euro para the 12z or the 00z? It was for the 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 JMA is 10-15mm max. That's not a whole lotta snow.. JMA is over an inch of liquid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Jma LE total for NYC area is 1.2in-1.6in north to south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Looking at the jma, it looks to stall out briefly, then heads east.not bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SleetStormNJ Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 JMA is 10-15mm max. That's not a whole lotta snow.. That's just one six hour panel to hour 54. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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