seawolf14 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 28 , DP 20 in Holly Springs, NC (SW Wake Co) Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 .NEAR TERM /EARLY TONIGHT/... AS OF 1045 PM THURSDAY... TEMPERATURES THIS EVENING HAVE RADIATIONALLY-COOLED INTO THE MIDDLE 20S TO LOWER 30S ALREADY...BENEATH A CLEAR SKY THAT HAS JUST IN THE PAST HOUR OR TWO FILLED WITH MULTI-LAYERED CLOUDS (~3000/12000/25000 FT) OVER THE SOUTHERN NC PIEDMONT. HOURLY TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS TREND...WITH THIS TREND CARRYING INTO THE DAY ON FRIDAY BASED ON THE LATEST NWP GUIDANCE...AND WHICH CONSEQUENTLY HOLDS SURFACE TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW FREEZING -WITH WINTRY PRECIPITATION- FOR A FEW HOURS LONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST ON THE SOUTHEASTERN FRINGE OF THE WARNING/ADVISORY AREAS. IN ADDITION...BUFR SOUNDING AND PARTIAL THICKNESS DATA FROM THE RAP/GFS/NAM...INCLUDING THE 00Z RUN OF THE LATTER...WOULD SUGGEST SLEET MAY BE A PREDOMINATE PRECIPITATION TYPE FOR SEVERAL HOURS ON FRIDAY...WHICH WOULD REDUCE BOTH FROZEN (SNOW AND SLEET) AND FREEZING RAIN ACCUMULATION FOR THE EVENT...WITH THE LATTER LESSENING THE IMPACT OF OTHERWISE CRIPPLING FREEZING RAIN ACCRUAL. WOULD LIKE TO SEE THE FULL SUITE OF THE 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE BEFORE MAKING TOO DRASTIC OF CHANGES TO THOSE ACCUMULATIONS...HOWEVER. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxduncan Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 .NEAR TERM /EARLY TONIGHT/... AS OF 1045 PM THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES THIS EVENING HAVE RADIATIONALLY-COOLED INTO THE MIDDLE20S TO LOWER 30S ALREADY...BENEATH A CLEAR SKY THAT HAS JUST IN THEPAST HOUR OR TWO FILLED WITH MULTI-LAYERED CLOUDS (~3000/12000/25000FT) OVER THE SOUTHERN NC PIEDMONT. HOURLY TEMPERATURES HAVE BEENADJUSTED TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS TREND...WITH THIS TREND CARRYING INTOTHE DAY ON FRIDAY BASED ON THE LATEST NWP GUIDANCE...AND WHICHCONSEQUENTLY HOLDS SURFACE TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW FREEZING -WITHWINTRY PRECIPITATION- FOR A FEW HOURS LONGER THAN PREVIOUSLYFORECAST ON THE SOUTHEASTERN FRINGE OF THE WARNING/ADVISORY AREAS.IN ADDITION...BUFR SOUNDING AND PARTIAL THICKNESS DATA FROM THERAP/GFS/NAM...INCLUDING THE 00Z RUN OF THE LATTER...WOULD SUGGESTSLEET MAY BE A PREDOMINATE PRECIPITATION TYPE FOR SEVERAL HOURS ONFRIDAY...WHICH WOULD REDUCE BOTH FROZEN (SNOW AND SLEET) ANDFREEZING RAIN ACCUMULATION FOR THE EVENT...WITH THE LATTER LESSENINGTHE IMPACT OF OTHERWISE CRIPPLING FREEZING RAIN ACCRUAL. WOULD LIKETO SEE THE FULL SUITE OF THE 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE BEFORE MAKING TOODRASTIC OF CHANGES TO THOSE ACCUMULATIONS...HOWEVER. Which office issued this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 sitting at 38 here. Underground Radar show the ptype as snow about to knock on the door here. Ill verify shortly. Edit: all sleet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 23/20 and clear You're just showing off! Temp has dropped to 39 here but DP went up to 35! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNC Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 sitting at 38 here. Underground Radar show the ptype as snow about to knock on the door here. Ill verify shortly. That's wild. We barely have a cloud in the sky in Forsyth county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Moderate rain in AVL, waste of qpf so far. Maybe a few very wet snow flakes mixed in.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDeac Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 37/22. Wetbulb is 31.9 currently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Alchemist Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 33/29 here in Saluda NC... Sleet and rain... Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Sitting here at 4,600 feet on Sugar Mtn. Light snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sparklecity Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 37.4°/30° Light rain. Initial rain sounded like it may have had a stray ip or 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Worried abut the moderate rain here in AVL, wet bulb already reached, models are already too cold. It will change to snow at some point tonight but every hour it rains we will get less snow..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Which office issued this? Sorry - My bad --- that was RAH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNC Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Worried abut the moderate rain here in AVL, wet bulb already reached, models are already too cold. It will change to snow at some point tonight but every hour it rains we will get less snow..... CAD does not seem as strong as progged. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hartweather Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Worried abut the moderate rain here in AVL, wet bulb already reached, models are already too cold. It will change to snow at some point tonight but every hour it rains we will get less snow..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 CAD does not seem as strong as progged. Anyone know the the current pressure of the parent high? We have talked at length about whether or not the 1024-1028 that was forecast would be strong enough or not. If it it is even weaker then this is going to bust for a whole lot of people. Interested to see what happens with Asheville' seems to have a HUGE bust potential since they don't benefit as much from CAD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Crazy last hr here in eastern NC at PGV as the clouds come and go, temp crashed to 23 then bounced to 30 but DP continues to lower 21 23:35 NE 6 10.00 Fair CLR 30 21 69% 24 NA 30.29 NA 21 23:15 NE 5 10.00 Fair CLR 23 21 93% 17 NA 30.29 NA 21 22:55 Calm 10.00 Fair CLR 27 23 86% NA NA 30.30 NA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drfranklin Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 37 degrees with light rain - I've dropped 9 degrees in the past 2 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovingGulfLows Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 If the wedge isn't as strong as modeled, the warm nose is going to kill a lot of people, especially if the lp center is stronger than progged. Enjoy the initial thump of snow because you may not get any again once you change over until the backside arrives. Btw, my area has been under heavy rain for the last 2 hours....I can't imagine if these types of bands go over areas where the column is cold enough for snow.....VERY heavy snow....probably rates of 2 inches an hour or more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet Stream Rider Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 25/17 here at 0z est. Clear. Not even a halo around the waxing gibbous moon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gritsnc Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 29/20. Clouds starting to move in but I can still see the moon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
timnc910 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 27/19 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeepPounding Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Light rain sprinkles just started. Noticeably colder out than just an hour ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sparklecity Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Down to 35.6° with light rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainforrest Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Moderate snow temp 32. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckethead Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Here in Reynolds (SE Asheville) we've already got a light glaze on everything (asphalt too) . Currently sleet with flakes mixing in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 A quick check of Wunderground and it looks like you have to go all the way to Asheboro and the Triad to find sub freezing temps. That is a long ways to go for upstate and NEGA folks. Dropped another degree here to 37 but my dp is stuck on 34! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Worried abut the moderate rain here in AVL, wet bulb already reached, models are already too cold. It will change to snow at some point tonight but every hour it rains we will get less snow..... Agree this is not a good sign... a recent radiosonde launch by UNCA ATMS department shows that the models are not doing a good job with the initial warm nose at 850hPa... dynamical cooling will kick in as the rates increase, but seems like models thus far have overestimated CAD cooling prior to precip arrival. 0400 UTC sounding at UNCA Representative 0400 UTC NCAR ensemble sounding... clear they are underestimating warm nose at 850hPa thus far by 2-3C... not good for those south and east... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sparklecity Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Any reports from the Clemson area? I noticed on the webcams it looks like some partially frozen blobs are mixing in here and there. Some heavy returns are starting to make their way to my area so hopefully the temp will crash below freezing in the next couple hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarvelMountain Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 33 here and dry.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.