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Blizzard of 2016 - Official Obs Thread


mackerel_sky

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From GSP

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...AS OF 8 PM...PRECIP IS GRADUALLY EXPANDING EAST ACROSS GA AND THE TN VALLEY THIS EVENING. TIMING OF THE ACTIVITY INTO OUR FORECAST AREA AGREES PRETTY WELL WITH THE INHERITED FORECAST...SO ONLY SOME FINE TUNING OF NEAR TERM POPS WAS NECESSARY. IT/S QUITE INTERESTING TO COMPARE THE LATEST SURFACE OBS TO THE THE MOST RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE. NAM SURFACE WET BULB TEMPS...WHICH DEPICT THE WARMEST AND LEAST DRY SURFACE LAYER IN COMPARISON WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF...IS VERIFYING PRETTY WELL...WHILE THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE QUITE A BIT TOO LOW WITH THE WET BULBS. OF COURSE...THIS DOESN/T MEAN THAT THIS TREND WILL HOLD THROUGHOUT THE UPCOMING EVENT...BUT IT WILL BE SOMETHING TO WATCH CLOSELY...SINCE THE NAM CONTINUES TO BE THE LEAST AGGRESSIVE MODEL IN PUSHING THE COLD/DRY SURFACE AIR SOUTHWEST. OVERALL...SAW VERY LITTLE REASON TO TINKER WITH THE CURRENT PUBLIC FORECAST PAST THE NEXT 6 HOURS.           
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Winds picking up here in gainesville...east at 10 to 15. Winds are going to be impressive tomorrow in fact with wind advisories in effect for the far north with gusts to 40 to 50mph. What's worrisome is high winds in the areas of icing. Rgem has 850 mb winds as high as 65 knots over the far north for a time...with winds at 925mb at 30 to 45 knots much of tomorrow in the cad areas of the upstate and north ga.

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Winds picking up here in gainesville...east at 10 to 15. Winds are going to be impressive tomorrow in fact with wind advisories in effect for the far north with gusts to 40 to 50mph. What's worrisome is high winds in the areas of icing. Rgem has 850 mb winds as high as 65 knots over the far north for a time...with winds at 925mb at 30 to 45 knots much of tomorrow in the cad areas of the upstate and north ga.

Wow at the winds! If that blows over major ice we're looking at major destruction of trees and property! 

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Leading edge of the heart of the wedge, around 925mb, starting to show around highlands with temps around 29 to 31..a drop of 10 in the last few hours. Will be interesting to see which model has had the better handle on it in the end with the Nam warmer and the rgem by far the coldest

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Leading edge of the heart of the wedge, around 925mb, starting to show around highlands with temps around 29 to 31..a drop of 10 in the last few hours. Will be interesting to see which model has had the better handle on it in the end with the Nam warmer and the rgem by far the coldest

Unfortunately the NAM is verifying the best right now according to GSP NWS.

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Leading edge of the heart of the wedge, around 925mb, starting to show around highlands with temps around 29 to 31..a drop of 10 in the last few hours. Will be interesting to see which model has had the better handle on it in the end with the Nam warmer and the rgem by far the coldest

i have to say i was not over joyed when i saw the gsp update about dewpoints and warmer nam seeming to be right at the moment lol.  the temp here is 36 now - down a couple of degrees in the last few hours.  i really hope that wedge gets moving down this way.  the winds seem to be picking up so my fingers are crossed.

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