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Jan 22-24 blizzard obs, tracking, nowcasting


Ian

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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0056   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK   0856 PM CST FRI JAN 22 2016   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC   CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW    VALID 230256Z - 230800Z   SUMMARY...SNOWFALL INTENSITY WILL INCREASE WITHIN A CONSOLIDATING   BAND OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SNOWFALL AROUND 1-2 INCHES PER HOUR   /WITH LOCALLY HIGHER RATES/ IS EXPECTED.   DISCUSSION...IR IMAGERY AND REGIONAL RADAR DEPICT AN EXPANSIVE   SHIELD OF PRECIPITATION ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST...IN RESPONSE   TO BROAD ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE MATURING   CYCLONE. SFC PRESSURE FALLS AROUND 2-3 MB/HR NOTED ALONG THE NC/VA   COASTS AHEAD OF THE DEEPENING SFC LOW SIGNAL A GROWING MASS RESPONSE   FROM THE APPROACHING MID-LEVEL TROUGH. ADDITIONALLY...PRESSURE FALLS   AROUND 2 MB/HR ALONG/NEAR THE CHESAPEAKE/POTOMAC ARE LIKELY   SIGNALING STRENGTHENING WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT AHEAD OF THE DEEPENING   850-700 MB LOW. AMPLIFYING FRONTOGENETIC CIRCULATIONS WILL FURTHER   AID ASCENT TO BOLSTER SNOWFALL RATES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.   INDEED...KAKQ/KDOX INDICATE SUBTLE ENHANCEMENTS OF SPECIFIC   DIFFERENTIAL PHASE /KDP/ WITHIN THE -10 TO -20 C LAYER...LIKELY   SIGNALING IMPROVED ASCENT/CRYSTAL GROWTH ALOFT. AS SUCH CONDITIONS   EXPAND N/NWWD IN RESPONSE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED LARGE-SCALE   FORCING...A BAND OF HEAVY SNOW WILL CONSOLIDATE ACROSS THE   DISCUSSION AREA. CONDITIONS SHOULD FURTHER DETERIORATE AS SNOWFALL   RATES OF 1-2 INCHES PER HOUR /WITH LOCALLY HIGHER RATES/   DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY IN ANY SMALL CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS.   ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA...SOME MIXING WITH SLEET   MAY OCCUR...NOTED IN KDOX/KAKQ CC DATA AND A FEW MPING REPORTS. SUCH   MIXING WOULD TEMPORARILY REDUCE SNOWFALL RATES. HOWEVER...HEAVY   PRECIPITATION AND SUBSEQUENT COOLING DUE TO MELTING HYDROMETEORS   WILL SERVE TO SLOW/STOP THE N/NWWD PROGRESSION OF THIS WARM LAYER.   ..PICCA.. 01/23/2016   ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RNK...

Seeing pressure falls of a little more than 2 mbar/hour in Montgomery Village, MD.

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The current rates over eastern Prince Wiiliam Cnty, where I live, is it true that snow tonight will get ever heavier later on?

 

Because if that is true, I can't even begin to imagine it. That would be a Snowgasm+++

 

Its snowin and blowin like an Antarctic blizzard out there right now. It's getting cold too, 19 degrees.

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I used to live out there. Bull Run Mountain and all the precipitation in between causes a shadow over Luray and Harrisonburg during snow events.

Always the case and always causes panic. I would say there IS a break around Culpeper, though. That area isn't impacted by the shadow.

Thanks to both of you for the respone. Good analysis!

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