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Jan 22-24 blizzard obs, tracking, nowcasting


Ian

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[quote name="EastCoast

Just looked outside and I can't even tell if it is snowing at all. 2 hours now with next to nothing. Definitely not worth the effort to fight that wind and try to find a reliable spot to measure. Glad to hear that at least it's performing well farther east. That looks to be the favored area for this one.

Patience it's coming....

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Just looked outside and I can't even tell if it is snowing at all.  2 hours now with next to nothing.  Definitely not worth the effort to fight that wind and try to find a reliable spot to measure.  Glad to hear that at least it's performing well farther east.  That looks to be the favored area for this one.

 

nah, this thing is just now starting to take shape and pivot slowly.  once the coastal takes over, the whole area should do well imo.

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I thought about that, but doesn't that area usually show up from lwx? What would make this scenario different?

I used to live out there. Bull Run Mountain and all the precipitation in between causes a shadow over Luray and Harrisonburg during snow events.

Always the case and always causes panic. I would say there IS a break around Culpeper, though. That area isn't impacted by the shadow.

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This is getting quite real in upper NW DC.

 

 

attachicon.gifmcd0056.gif

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0056   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK   0856 PM CST FRI JAN 22 2016   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC   CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW    VALID 230256Z - 230800Z   SUMMARY...SNOWFALL INTENSITY WILL INCREASE WITHIN A CONSOLIDATING   BAND OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SNOWFALL AROUND 1-2 INCHES PER HOUR   /WITH LOCALLY HIGHER RATES/ IS EXPECTED.   DISCUSSION...IR IMAGERY AND REGIONAL RADAR DEPICT AN EXPANSIVE   SHIELD OF PRECIPITATION ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST...IN RESPONSE   TO BROAD ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE MATURING   CYCLONE. SFC PRESSURE FALLS AROUND 2-3 MB/HR NOTED ALONG THE NC/VA   COASTS AHEAD OF THE DEEPENING SFC LOW SIGNAL A GROWING MASS RESPONSE   FROM THE APPROACHING MID-LEVEL TROUGH. ADDITIONALLY...PRESSURE FALLS   AROUND 2 MB/HR ALONG/NEAR THE CHESAPEAKE/POTOMAC ARE LIKELY   SIGNALING STRENGTHENING WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT AHEAD OF THE DEEPENING   850-700 MB LOW. AMPLIFYING FRONTOGENETIC CIRCULATIONS WILL FURTHER   AID ASCENT TO BOLSTER SNOWFALL RATES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.   INDEED...KAKQ/KDOX INDICATE SUBTLE ENHANCEMENTS OF SPECIFIC   DIFFERENTIAL PHASE /KDP/ WITHIN THE -10 TO -20 C LAYER...LIKELY   SIGNALING IMPROVED ASCENT/CRYSTAL GROWTH ALOFT. AS SUCH CONDITIONS   EXPAND N/NWWD IN RESPONSE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED LARGE-SCALE   FORCING...A BAND OF HEAVY SNOW WILL CONSOLIDATE ACROSS THE   DISCUSSION AREA. CONDITIONS SHOULD FURTHER DETERIORATE AS SNOWFALL   RATES OF 1-2 INCHES PER HOUR /WITH LOCALLY HIGHER RATES/   DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY IN ANY SMALL CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS.   ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA...SOME MIXING WITH SLEET   MAY OCCUR...NOTED IN KDOX/KAKQ CC DATA AND A FEW MPING REPORTS. SUCH   MIXING WOULD TEMPORARILY REDUCE SNOWFALL RATES. HOWEVER...HEAVY   PRECIPITATION AND SUBSEQUENT COOLING DUE TO MELTING HYDROMETEORS   WILL SERVE TO SLOW/STOP THE N/NWWD PROGRESSION OF THIS WARM LAYER.   ..PICCA.. 01/23/2016   ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RNK...

That second paragraph brought a tear to me eye. Tears of joy, of course.

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