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Jan 22-24 blizzard obs, tracking, nowcasting


Ian

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There's an NWS disco copypasta in the SE board from NC that says the local office is cutting expected totals by 20% due to radar and speed of the storm.

 

RECENT GUIDANCE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT SOME

DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENT TO THE ACCUMULATION TOTALS ARE LIKELY NEEDED.

HIGHER RESOLUTION GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE HI RES WINDOW ARW AND NMM

AND THE HRRR NOTE THE BACK EDGE OF THE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION

LIKELY TO PROGRESS THROUGH CENTRAL NC MUCH MORE QUICKLY AND AHEAD

OF THE DRY SLOT. IN ADDITION...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS NOTE A

SIGNIFICANT PRESSURE FALL NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE SURFACE LOW

IN ALABAMA. THE HRRR PICKS UP ON THIS AND HIGHLIGHTS A SFC

PRESSURE FIELD INDICATIVE OF A POSSIBLE GRAVITY WAVE WITH

PRECIPITATION DECREASING BEHIND THIS FEATURE. 

HAVE ACCORDINGLY LOWERED SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS AROUND 10

TO 20 PERCENT OR AROUND AN INCH OR TWO IN MOST LOCATIONS. OF NOTE...THE 

07Z HRRR BRINGS THE BACK EDGE OF THE STEADY PRECIPITATION TO RDU AT 21Z.

LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS AND ADJUST

FORECAST AS NEEDED. EVEN WITH TOTAL AMOUNTS DOWN A BIT...HAZARDOUS

TRAVEL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

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RECENT GUIDANCE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT SOME

DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENT TO THE ACCUMULATION TOTALS ARE LIKELY NEEDED.

HIGHER RESOLUTION GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE HI RES WINDOW ARW AND NMM

AND THE HRRR NOTE THE BACK EDGE OF THE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION

LIKELY TO PROGRESS THROUGH CENTRAL NC MUCH MORE QUICKLY AND AHEAD

OF THE DRY SLOT. IN ADDITION...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS NOTE A

SIGNIFICANT PRESSURE FALL NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE SURFACE LOW

IN ALABAMA. THE HRRR PICKS UP ON THIS AND HIGHLIGHTS A SFC

PRESSURE FIELD INDICATIVE OF A POSSIBLE GRAVITY WAVE WITH

PRECIPITATION DECREASING BEHIND THIS FEATURE. 

HAVE ACCORDINGLY LOWERED SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS AROUND 10

TO 20 PERCENT OR AROUND AN INCH OR TWO IN MOST LOCATIONS. OF NOTE...THE 

07Z HRRR BRINGS THE BACK EDGE OF THE STEADY PRECIPITATION TO RDU AT 21Z.

LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS AND ADJUST

FORECAST AS NEEDED. EVEN WITH TOTAL AMOUNTS DOWN A BIT...HAZARDOUS

TRAVEL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

 

Thanks!

 

Anyone know which model this brings performance most closely in line with?

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The leading edge is just north of Lynchburg. LYH is indefinite at 800 with 1/2 mile visibility. Interesting thing is that the period of light snow is very brief, so it's coming in like a wall. Farmville is very close in latitude:

 

KLYH 221354Z 02012KT 1/2SM R04/3000V3500FT SN FZFG VV008 M07/M08 A3017 RMK AO2 SLP230 P0005 T10671078

 

KFVX 221355Z AUTO 02005KT 3SM -SN BKN020 BKN031 OVC038 M04/M08 A3021 RMK AO2 T10411081

 

Chesterfield and Charlottesville are still VFR:

 

KFCI 221355Z AUTO 04006KT 10SM OVC070 M03/M15 A3025 RMK AO1

KCHO 221353Z 03004KT 10SM BKN085 OVC100 M05/M09 A3024 RMK AO2 SLP248 T10501094

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Meso discussion issued for most of west and central va for mod/heavy snow.

The 70mph gust was retweeted by @terpweather

 

post-397-0-11913500-1453473074_thumb.gif

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0049   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK   0756 AM CST FRI JAN 22 2016   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF WV/VA   CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW    VALID 221356Z - 221800Z   SUMMARY...MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND   GRADUALLY EXPAND NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN/CENTRAL WV AND   WESTERN/CENTRAL VA THROUGH THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.   SNOW RATES WILL LIKELY REACH 1-2 IN/HR IN THE HEAVIER BANDS.   DISCUSSION...STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT/WARM ADVECTION WILL SPREAD   INTO/ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE   UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH/JET STREAK CURRENTLY CROSSING THE TN   VALLEY/SOUTHEAST STATES. WITH A SATURATED DENDRITIC LAYER BETWEEN   500-600 MB...THE 12Z OBSERVED SOUNDING FROM ROANOKE VA SAMPLED A   THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE CONDUCIVE FOR DENDRITIC/AGGREGATE SNOW GROWTH.   AS INCREASING UVV/S COINCIDE WITH A FAVORABLE DENDRITIC LAYER AND   SATURATING LOW-LEVEL PROFILES...09Z SREF GUIDANCE SUPPORTED BY   RAP/HRRR FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL   EXPAND NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN/CENTRAL WV AND   WESTERN/CENTRAL VA THROUGH LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. SNOW RATES   WILL LIKELY REACH 1-2 IN/HR IN THE HEAVIER BANDS THROUGH THE 18Z-21Z   TIME FRAME.   ..GUYER.. 01/22/2016   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...   LAT...LON   37628209 38568224 38998066 39367867 38627753 37517790               36657924 36648054 37328129 37628209
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