WxUSAF Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 70mph gust at Langley afb near Norfolk. Damn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Symblized Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Which people? Than whose expectations? There's an NWS disco copypasta in the SE board from NC that says the local office is cutting expected totals by 20% due to radar and speed of the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 70mph gust at Langley afb near Norfolk. Damn.wait wut? Link?Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeSuck Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 70mph gust at Langley afb near Norfolk. Damn. Already?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
feloniousq Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 There's an NWS disco copypasta in the SE board from NC that says the local office is cutting expected totals by 20% due to radar and speed of the storm. RECENT GUIDANCE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT SOME DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENT TO THE ACCUMULATION TOTALS ARE LIKELY NEEDED. HIGHER RESOLUTION GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE HI RES WINDOW ARW AND NMM AND THE HRRR NOTE THE BACK EDGE OF THE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION LIKELY TO PROGRESS THROUGH CENTRAL NC MUCH MORE QUICKLY AND AHEAD OF THE DRY SLOT. IN ADDITION...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS NOTE A SIGNIFICANT PRESSURE FALL NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE SURFACE LOW IN ALABAMA. THE HRRR PICKS UP ON THIS AND HIGHLIGHTS A SFC PRESSURE FIELD INDICATIVE OF A POSSIBLE GRAVITY WAVE WITH PRECIPITATION DECREASING BEHIND THIS FEATURE. HAVE ACCORDINGLY LOWERED SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS AROUND 10 TO 20 PERCENT OR AROUND AN INCH OR TWO IN MOST LOCATIONS. OF NOTE...THE 07Z HRRR BRINGS THE BACK EDGE OF THE STEADY PRECIPITATION TO RDU AT 21Z. LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS AND ADJUST FORECAST AS NEEDED. EVEN WITH TOTAL AMOUNTS DOWN A BIT...HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrs.J Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 21 out currently. Plant pots put under the outside table, and heading out for a liquor store run soon. Going to see if we can score another sled for the girls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Sounds like rapid intensification. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Don't believe this effect out qpf totals at all Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 RECENT GUIDANCE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT SOME DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENT TO THE ACCUMULATION TOTALS ARE LIKELY NEEDED. HIGHER RESOLUTION GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE HI RES WINDOW ARW AND NMM AND THE HRRR NOTE THE BACK EDGE OF THE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION LIKELY TO PROGRESS THROUGH CENTRAL NC MUCH MORE QUICKLY AND AHEAD OF THE DRY SLOT. IN ADDITION...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS NOTE A SIGNIFICANT PRESSURE FALL NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE SURFACE LOW IN ALABAMA. THE HRRR PICKS UP ON THIS AND HIGHLIGHTS A SFC PRESSURE FIELD INDICATIVE OF A POSSIBLE GRAVITY WAVE WITH PRECIPITATION DECREASING BEHIND THIS FEATURE. HAVE ACCORDINGLY LOWERED SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS AROUND 10 TO 20 PERCENT OR AROUND AN INCH OR TWO IN MOST LOCATIONS. OF NOTE...THE 07Z HRRR BRINGS THE BACK EDGE OF THE STEADY PRECIPITATION TO RDU AT 21Z. LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS AND ADJUST FORECAST AS NEEDED. EVEN WITH TOTAL AMOUNTS DOWN A BIT...HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. Thanks! Anyone know which model this brings performance most closely in line with? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Meso discussion issued for most of west and central va for mod/heavy snow. The 70mph gust was retweeted by @terpweather Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Snow just started in Stauton. Should be breaking out in CHO soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TerpWeather Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Meso discussion issued for most of west and central va for mod/heavy snow. The 70mph gust was retweeted by @terpweather Was an erroneous ASOS report out of Langley. Quipped, maybe the blizzard is starting early Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Calm before the storm this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Was an erroneous ASOS report out of Langley. Quipped, maybe the blizzard is starting earlyAh...I got the joke but didn't realize it was a bad ob. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
09-10 analogy Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Slate-grey sky that's darkening, stillness, crisp cold -- it's got that big storm feel to it outside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meridian Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 The leading edge is just north of Lynchburg. LYH is indefinite at 800 with 1/2 mile visibility. Interesting thing is that the period of light snow is very brief, so it's coming in like a wall. Farmville is very close in latitude: KLYH 221354Z 02012KT 1/2SM R04/3000V3500FT SN FZFG VV008 M07/M08 A3017 RMK AO2 SLP230 P0005 T10671078 KFVX 221355Z AUTO 02005KT 3SM -SN BKN020 BKN031 OVC038 M04/M08 A3021 RMK AO2 T10411081 Chesterfield and Charlottesville are still VFR: KFCI 221355Z AUTO 04006KT 10SM OVC070 M03/M15 A3025 RMK AO1 KCHO 221353Z 03004KT 10SM BKN085 OVC100 M05/M09 A3024 RMK AO2 SLP248 T10501094 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Looks like snow has reached mm 237 (Weyer's Cave) on I-81. eta. Hard to see that traffic cam, but it looks like some light patches of white beginning on the grass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Mike Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 My snowman is ready for the HECS! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilentTalkie Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Per family, light snow just started in Nelson County, VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeSuck Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 My snowman is ready for the HECS! Uh, you are going to put his skin back on ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Looks like snow has reached mm 237 (Weyer's Cave) on I-81. eta. Hard to see that traffic cam, but it looks like some light patches of white beginning on the grass. Looks like its definitely made it to Verona. Another couple of hours for us I would guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Snowing in Charlottesville per the traffic cams. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Meso discussion issued for most of west and central va for mod/heavy snow. The 70mph gust was retweeted by @terpweather MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0049 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0756 AM CST FRI JAN 22 2016 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF WV/VA CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 221356Z - 221800Z SUMMARY...MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND GRADUALLY EXPAND NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN/CENTRAL WV AND WESTERN/CENTRAL VA THROUGH THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. SNOW RATES WILL LIKELY REACH 1-2 IN/HR IN THE HEAVIER BANDS. DISCUSSION...STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT/WARM ADVECTION WILL SPREAD INTO/ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH/JET STREAK CURRENTLY CROSSING THE TN VALLEY/SOUTHEAST STATES. WITH A SATURATED DENDRITIC LAYER BETWEEN 500-600 MB...THE 12Z OBSERVED SOUNDING FROM ROANOKE VA SAMPLED A THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE CONDUCIVE FOR DENDRITIC/AGGREGATE SNOW GROWTH. AS INCREASING UVV/S COINCIDE WITH A FAVORABLE DENDRITIC LAYER AND SATURATING LOW-LEVEL PROFILES...09Z SREF GUIDANCE SUPPORTED BY RAP/HRRR FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL EXPAND NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN/CENTRAL WV AND WESTERN/CENTRAL VA THROUGH LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. SNOW RATES WILL LIKELY REACH 1-2 IN/HR IN THE HEAVIER BANDS THROUGH THE 18Z-21Z TIME FRAME. ..GUYER.. 01/22/2016 ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX... LAT...LON 37628209 38568224 38998066 39367867 38627753 37517790 36657924 36648054 37328129 37628209 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 I swear there's very tiny pixie dust very light single flurries falling along with virga. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Mike Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Uh, you are going to put his skin back on ? I'm hoping the snow will reach his neck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yuki neko Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Snow on the traffic cam just west of Petersburg VA, south of Richmond. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Elrock Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Snowing in Charlottesville per the traffic cams. I'm in Charlottesville (near Monticello, just south of I-64) and I haven't seen anything yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 13z HRRRRRRRR has 4-6" of snow at DCA by 11pm While 13z RAP has ~8" of snow at DCA at 2am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 6" in Blacksburg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 4" in Lynchburg. I hear it is fluffy and high-ratio too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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