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Jan 22-24 blizzard obs, tracking, nowcasting


Ian

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...DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA...
THE MALL 3.5 715 PM 1/22 TRAINED SPOTTER
1 WSW NATIONAL ZOO 3.1 700 PM 1/22 TRAINED SPOTTER
1 E WASHINGTON 3.0 730 PM 1/22 TRAINED SPOTTER

MARYLAND

...ALLEGANY COUNTY...
FROSTBURG 8.0 901 PM 1/22 TRAINED SPOTTER
1 S ECKHART MINES 5.8 815 PM 1/22 TRAINED SPOTTER
LONACONING 5.0 903 PM 1/22 TRAINED SPOTTER

...ANNE ARUNDEL COUNTY...
1 WNW EASTPORT 4.0 825 PM 1/22 TRAINED SPOTTER
1 ENE PASADENA 3.0 740 PM 1/22 TRAINED SPOTTER
CHELSEA BEACH 2.0 659 PM 1/22 TRAINED SPOTTER
BWI AIRPORT 1.6 700 PM 1/22 AIRPORT

...BALTIMORE COUNTY...
REISTERSTOWN 2.5 655 PM 1/22 STATE EMERG MGMT
JACKSONVILLE 2.5 833 PM 1/22 TRAINED SPOTTER
1 ENE RANDALLSTOWN 2.3 730 PM 1/22 TRAINED SPOTTER
1 ENE HAMILTON 2.0 800 PM 1/22 TRAINED SPOTTER
1 ESE OELLA 2.0 850 PM 1/22 TRAINED SPOTTER
1 WSW GLYNDON 1.7 707 PM 1/22 TRAINED SPOTTER
2 NW LONG GREEN 1.5 700 PM 1/22 TRAINED SPOTTER

...BALTIMORE CITY...
1 WNW MORRELL PARK 2.7 830 PM 1/22 TRAINED SPOTTER
1 SW PARK HEIGHTS 2.0 800 PM 1/22 TRAINED SPOTTER
2 ESE ARLINGTON 1.5 750 PM 1/22 BROADCAST MEDIA

...CALVERT COUNTY...
2 NE DOWELL 5.0 820 PM 1/22 TRAINED SPOTTER
2 SW HUNTINGTOWN 5.0 830 PM 1/22 TRAINED SPOTTER

...CARROLL COUNTY...
4 NNE UNIONTOWN 0.8 700 PM 1/22 TRAINED SPOTTER

...CHARLES COUNTY...
2 W WHITE PLAINS 5.0 800 PM 1/22 TRAINED SPOTTER
RIPLEY 4.5 727 PM 1/22 TRAINED SPOTTER
1 S RIPLEY 4.5 718 PM 1/22 TRAINED SPOTTER
2 W WALDORF 4.1 700 PM 1/22 TRAINED SPOTTER
1 W LA PLATA 4.0 700 PM 1/22 TRAINED SPOTTER
2 ENE HUGHESVILLE 4.0 655 PM 1/22 TRAINED SPOTTER

...FREDERICK COUNTY...
ROSEMONT 5.0 741 PM 1/22 TRAINED SPOTTER
1 NNW BALLENGER CREE 3.5 830 PM 1/22 COCORAHS
1 E WALKERSVILLE 2.4 800 PM 1/22 TRAINED SPOTTER
1 E WALKERSVILLE 2.4 806 PM 1/22 COCORAHS

...HARFORD COUNTY...
2 E BEL AIR 1.5 836 PM 1/22 TRAINED SPOTTER
1 WSW NORRISVILLE 1.4 801 PM 1/22 COCORAHS
1 NNE BEL AIR 1.2 809 PM 1/22 TRAINED SPOTTER

...HOWARD COUNTY...
COLUMBIA 2.8 700 PM 1/22 NWS EMPLOYEE
1 WSW SAVAGE 2.6 719 PM 1/22 COCORAHS
2 N COLUMBIA 2.6 800 PM 1/22 TRAINED SPOTTER
1 WSW SAVAGE 2.6 712 PM 1/22 TRAINED SPOTTER
2 W ELKRIDGE 2.5 700 PM 1/22 TRAINED SPOTTER
2 SW WOODSTOCK 2.5 800 PM 1/22 TRAINED SPOTTER
2 WSW ELKRIDGE 2.4 735 PM 1/22 TRAINED SPOTTER
1 N SIMPSONVILLE 2.0 807 PM 1/22 TRAINED SPOTTER

...MONTGOMERY COUNTY...
1 NNE WASHINGTON GRO 4.2 900 PM 1/22 TRAINED SPOTTER
GAITHERSBURG 4.0 800 PM 1/22 COUNTY EMRG MGMT
1 NNW BETHESDA 4.0 823 PM 1/22 TRAINED SPOTTER
1 SE OLNEY 4.0 755 PM 1/22 COCORAHS
1 NNW CALVERTON 3.9 707 PM 1/22 TRAINED SPOTTER
1 NE GERMANTOWN 3.8 730 PM 1/22 TRAINED SPOTTER
1 WSW GARRETT PARK 3.5 717 PM 1/22 TRAINED SPOTTER
1 ENE GAITHERSBURG 3.5 741 PM 1/22 TRAINED SPOTTER
4 NE LEESBURG 3.5 735 PM 1/22 TRAINED SPOTTER
2 N GARRETT PARK 3.5 707 PM 1/22 COCORAHS
1 ESE TAKOMA PARK 3.3 729 PM 1/22 TRAINED SPOTTER
1 ESE NORBECK 3.0 700 PM 1/22 COCORAHS
1 ESE NORBECK 3.0 710 PM 1/22 COCORAHS
1 WNW EDNOR 3.0 701 PM 1/22 TRAINED SPOTTER

...PRINCE GEORGES COUNTY...
1 NNE CHELTENHAM 4.0 726 PM 1/22 TRAINED SPOTTER
1 E CALVERTON 3.0 716 PM 1/22 TRAINED SPOTTER
1 E UNIVERSITY PARK 2.8 700 PM 1/22 NWS OFFICE
1 NE COLLEGE PARK 2.4 724 PM 1/22 TRAINED SPOTTER
2 E BURTONSVILLE 1.6 651 PM 1/22 COCORAHS

...ST. MARYS COUNTY...
2 SE REDGATE 6.0 810 PM 1/22 TRAINED SPOTTER
1 NE CALIFORNIA 5.5 810 PM 1/22 TRAINED SPOTTER
RIDGE 5.4 800 PM 1/22 TRAINED SPOTTER
2 W CALIFORNIA 5.0 834 PM 1/22 TRAINED SPOTTER

...WASHINGTON COUNTY...
3 SW FAIRPLAY 2.5 759 PM 1/22 TRAINED SPOTTER
1 SSE LONG MEADOW 2.2 756 PM 1/22 TRAINED SPOTTER
HAGERSTOWN 2.0 821 PM 1/22 AIRPORT
1 SW HAGERSTOWN 2.0 803 PM 1/22 TRAINED SPOTTER

VIRGINIA

...ALBEMARLE COUNTY...
3 NW EARLYSVILLE 6.0 700 PM 1/22 TRAINED SPOTTER

...ARLINGTON COUNTY...
1 ESE ARLINGTON 4.0 700 PM 1/22 TRAINED SPOTTER
1 NNE BAILEYS CROSSR 3.8 700 PM 1/22 TRAINED SPOTTER
REAGAN NATIONAL AIRP 2.8 652 PM 1/22 AIRPORT

...CITY OF ALEXANDRIA...
1 W ALEXANDRIA 4.6 800 PM 1/22 TRAINED SPOTTER
1 SSW ALEXANDRIA 4.3 700 PM 1/22 TRAINED SPOTTER
1 WNW NATIONAL HARBO 4.0 738 PM 1/22 TRAINED SPOTTER

...CITY OF CHARLOTTESVILLE...
1 SSE CHARLOTTESVILL 5.5 829 PM 1/22 BROADCAST MEDIA

...CITY OF FAIRFAX...
1 ESE FAIRFAX 5.0 740 PM 1/22 TRAINED SPOTTER

...CITY OF FREDERICKSBURG...
1 E FREDERICKSBURG 4.5 750 PM 1/22 TRAINED SPOTTER

...CITY OF HARRISONBURG...
HARRISONBURG 5.5 838 PM 1/22 BROADCAST MEDIA

...CITY OF MANASSAS...
1 SW MANASSAS PARK 4.3 740 PM 1/22 TRAINED SPOTTER

...CITY OF WAYNESBORO...
WAYNESBORO 6.8 700 PM 1/22 PUBLIC

...CITY OF WINCHESTER...
WINCHESTER 5.0 830 PM 1/22 TRAINED SPOTTER
2 S WINCHESTER 4.5 650 PM 1/22 TRAINED SPOTTER

...CLARKE COUNTY...
BOYCE 4.5 710 PM 1/22 TRAINED SPOTTER

...FAIRFAX COUNTY...
2 ENE STERLING PARK 5.0 830 PM 1/22 TRAINED SPOTTER
1 NNE HERNDON 4.5 853 PM 1/22 NWS EMPLOYEE
RAVENSWORTH 4.5 745 PM 1/22 NWS EMPLOYEE
1 E ANNANDALE 4.5 713 PM 1/22 TRAINED SPOTTER
3 N CHANTILLY 4.3 905 PM 1/22 NWS EMPLOYEE
3 SE CHANTILLY 4.0 800 PM 1/22 TRAINED SPOTTER
1 W LAKE BARCROFT 4.0 745 PM 1/22 TRAINED SPOTTER
2 S LINCOLNIA 4.0 700 PM 1/22 TRAINED SPOTTER
1 SSW FRANCONIA 4.0 700 PM 1/22 TRAINED SPOTTER
1 ENE MOUNT VERNON 4.0 656 PM 1/22 TRAINED SPOTTER
CENTREVILLE 3.9 716 PM 1/22 TRAINED SPOTTER
VIENNA 3.8 713 PM 1/22 CO-OP OBSERVER
1 SE FAIRFAX 3.8 800 PM 1/22 TRAINED SPOTTER
1 ENE WOLF TRAP 3.5 718 PM 1/22 COCORAHS
1 WNW FALLS CHURCH 3.5 730 PM 1/22 TRAINED SPOTTER
2 SSE HERNDON 3.5 815 PM 1/22 TRAINED SPOTTER
1 WNW RAVENSWORTH 3.5 730 PM 1/22 PUBLIC

...FAUQUIER COUNTY...
2 WSW BROKEN HILL 6.0 700 PM 1/22 TRAINED SPOTTER
1 NNE ADA 5.2 719 PM 1/22 TRAINED SPOTTER

...FREDERICK COUNTY...
3 S STEPHENSON 8.0 827 PM 1/22 TRAINED SPOTTER
2 E STEPHENS CITY 5.6 800 PM 1/22 TRAINED SPOTTER

...GREENE COUNTY...
2 SSW RUCKERSVILLE 5.3 751 PM 1/22 TRAINED SPOTTER

...LOUDOUN COUNTY...
2 W ASHBURN 5.0 835 PM 1/22 TRAINED SPOTTER
3 WSW DULLES INTERNA 4.8 819 PM 1/22 NWS EMPLOYEE
3 NW HILLSBORO 4.5 730 PM 1/22 TRAINED SPOTTER
3 S BLUEMONT 4.5 800 PM 1/22 TRAINED SPOTTER
1 ESE HUGHESVILLE 3.5 815 PM 1/22 TRAINED SPOTTER
2 WSW LEESBURG 3.5 700 PM 1/22 PUBLIC
DULLES INTERNATIONAL 3.0 700 PM 1/22 AIRPORT
3 SSW DULLES INTERNA 2.8 746 PM 1/22 TRAINED SPOTTER

...NELSON COUNTY...
WINTERGREEN 8.5 837 PM 1/22 BROADCAST MEDIA
1 SSW ELMA 8.5 830 PM 1/22 TRAINED SPOTTER

...PAGE COUNTY...
1 ESE HONEYVILLE 6.0 902 PM 1/22 TRAINED SPOTTER

...PRINCE WILLIAM COUNTY...
3 SW BULL RUN 4.6 655 PM 1/22 TRAINED SPOTTER
3 N INDEPENDENT HILL 4.5 830 PM 1/22 PUBLIC
2 ESE INDEPENDENT HI 4.5 700 PM 1/22 TRAINED SPOTTER

...ROCKINGHAM COUNTY...
2 S LACEY SPRING 7.0 841 PM 1/22 TRAINED SPOTTER
1 SSE SINGERS GLEN 6.5 740 PM 1/22 TRAINED SPOTTER

...SHENANDOAH COUNTY...
2 NE WOODSTOCK 7.0 824 PM 1/22 CO-OP OBSERVER
1 NNE CLARY 4.7 709 PM 1/22 COCORAHS

...SPOTSYLVANIA COUNTY...
1 E COOKSTOWN 6.5 800 PM 1/22 TRAINED SPOTTER
5 SSW WHITE OAK 4.9 730 PM 1/22 TRAINED SPOTTER
1 ENE MASSAPONAX 4.0 720 PM 1/22 PUBLIC
3 SSW FREDERICKSBURG 3.8 716 PM 1/22 TRAINED SPOTTER

...STAFFORD COUNTY...
1 SSE GLENDIE 5.3 745 PM 1/22 TRAINED SPOTTER
1 WSW SEALSTON 4.0 700 PM 1/22 COCORAHS

...WARREN COUNTY...
RIVERSIDE 6.0 730 PM 1/22 TRAINED SPOTTER
 
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a train of yellows are lining up and making a beeline for dc.  i'm under a yellow right now and can confirm that visiblity is low, probably lowest so far.  measured close to 5" and that was about 15-20 minutes ago.

 

if we stay all snow, i see no reason we aren't at 15-20" by sunrise, and that might be conservative.  it's still in the low to mid 20s.  ratios still in our favor. 

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Here comes the heavy yellows for us western folks that were in the advisory earlier. Its going to get amazing in about 30 minutes.

 

10:00 Update

Moderate snow

20 Degrees

6.4 total accum.

2.5 in last 3 hours

 

Feels so refreshing outside. Much better rates over the past 3 hours. Time for a nap. I want to get up in time to watch the Deform band destruction.

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post-397-0-73484700-1453518193_thumb.gif

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0056   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK   0856 PM CST FRI JAN 22 2016   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC   CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW    VALID 230256Z - 230800Z   SUMMARY...SNOWFALL INTENSITY WILL INCREASE WITHIN A CONSOLIDATING   BAND OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SNOWFALL AROUND 1-2 INCHES PER HOUR   /WITH LOCALLY HIGHER RATES/ IS EXPECTED.   DISCUSSION...IR IMAGERY AND REGIONAL RADAR DEPICT AN EXPANSIVE   SHIELD OF PRECIPITATION ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST...IN RESPONSE   TO BROAD ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE MATURING   CYCLONE. SFC PRESSURE FALLS AROUND 2-3 MB/HR NOTED ALONG THE NC/VA   COASTS AHEAD OF THE DEEPENING SFC LOW SIGNAL A GROWING MASS RESPONSE   FROM THE APPROACHING MID-LEVEL TROUGH. ADDITIONALLY...PRESSURE FALLS   AROUND 2 MB/HR ALONG/NEAR THE CHESAPEAKE/POTOMAC ARE LIKELY   SIGNALING STRENGTHENING WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT AHEAD OF THE DEEPENING   850-700 MB LOW. AMPLIFYING FRONTOGENETIC CIRCULATIONS WILL FURTHER   AID ASCENT TO BOLSTER SNOWFALL RATES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.   INDEED...KAKQ/KDOX INDICATE SUBTLE ENHANCEMENTS OF SPECIFIC   DIFFERENTIAL PHASE /KDP/ WITHIN THE -10 TO -20 C LAYER...LIKELY   SIGNALING IMPROVED ASCENT/CRYSTAL GROWTH ALOFT. AS SUCH CONDITIONS   EXPAND N/NWWD IN RESPONSE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED LARGE-SCALE   FORCING...A BAND OF HEAVY SNOW WILL CONSOLIDATE ACROSS THE   DISCUSSION AREA. CONDITIONS SHOULD FURTHER DETERIORATE AS SNOWFALL   RATES OF 1-2 INCHES PER HOUR /WITH LOCALLY HIGHER RATES/   DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY IN ANY SMALL CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS.   ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA...SOME MIXING WITH SLEET   MAY OCCUR...NOTED IN KDOX/KAKQ CC DATA AND A FEW MPING REPORTS. SUCH   MIXING WOULD TEMPORARILY REDUCE SNOWFALL RATES. HOWEVER...HEAVY   PRECIPITATION AND SUBSEQUENT COOLING DUE TO MELTING HYDROMETEORS   WILL SERVE TO SLOW/STOP THE N/NWWD PROGRESSION OF THIS WARM LAYER.   ..PICCA.. 01/23/2016   ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RNK...
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