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Jan 22-24 blizzard obs, tracking, nowcasting


Ian

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I haven't seen any of those heavy  rates that were advertised for the western areas this evening.  The last hour has really been nothing but pixie dust.  Not even worth going out to try and measure.  I have lots of wind, but very little snow the last hour.  My measure area has been compromised by the wind, so it's going to be very tough to get anything meaningful from this point.

 

I am measuring in 20 minutes for the last time tonight. I have had some decent bands come through. We will get our time in the deform band later on. 

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
915 PM EST FRI JAN 22 2016

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

SFC ANLYS SHOWS LOW PRES HAS MOVED E OF MYR. THE LOW WILL
INENSIFY AS IT TRACKS TO HAT BY 06Z...AND ENE OF ORF BY 12Z SAT.

SNOW HAS OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE CWA. THE OVERNIGHT HRS WL FEATURE INTENSE
SNOWFALL. NO VEHICLES XCPT PLOWS AND EMERGENCY SHOULD BE ON ROADS
TNGT/SAT.


DUAL POL RDR SHOWS AN AREA OF IP/SG BTWN CHO AND RIC. BLV AS IT
TRACKS N INTO THE COLDER AIR (PER 00Z IAD SNDG) THIS WL REVERT
BACK TO SN.

STORM IS STILL REALLY GETTING GOING...AND WE`VE SEEN SOME 7-8"
AMTS IN THE CENTRAL SHEN VLLY. BLV AS THIS WORKS N ALONG THE CST
SNOW AND WINDS WL INTENSIFY. SREF SHOWS SNFL INTENSIFYING AFTR
MDNGT...AND CONTINUING TO BE VERY HVY THRU AT LEAST NOON SAT.


WINDS OVR THE BAY/TIDAL PTMC HV BEEN GUSTING 35-40 MPH. IAD AND
BWI VWP SHOW THE LO LVL WIND FIELD STRENGTHENING FM THE NE - A
TRUE NOR`EASTER. WINDS WL BECOME AN EVEN GRTR CONCERN AFTR
MDNGT..ESPECIALLY IN THE ERN PART OF THE FCST AREA.

WANT TO EMPHASIZE THAT THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE NEAR THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY WITH GUSTS 60 TO 65 MPH EXPECTED. THE STRONGEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT AND A HIGH WIND WARNING IS IN
EFFECT FOR THOSE AREAS.

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